Russia–Kazakhstan oil transit uncertainty raises concerns for Germany’s supply chain

Summary

• Transit risk: Flows of Kazakh crude to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline remain vulnerable to geopolitical and operational disruptions.
• Refinery exposure: The PCK Schwedt refinery continues to rely partly on non-Russian crude routed through Russian infrastructure.
• Diversification push: Kazakhstan is expanding alternative export routes, including shipments via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

MOSCOW, April 21, 2026 — Concerns are rising over the reliability of oil transit flows from Kazakhstan to Germany, as ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to highlight the risks of dependence on shared pipeline infrastructure.

Kazakh crude exports to Germany—routed through Russia via the Druzhba pipeline—have played an important role in keeping key refineries operational after Berlin reduced direct imports of Russian oil in recent years.

Transit dependency remains a strategic vulnerability

Although Kazakh oil is not subject to the same sanctions as Russian crude, it must still pass through Russian-controlled pipeline networks to reach Europe.

This creates a structural dependency where transit volumes can be influenced by:

• Technical scheduling and capacity constraints
• Regulatory or contractual disputes
• Broader geopolitical tensions

There is currently no confirmed full suspension of flows, but the situation remains fluid and closely monitored by European energy stakeholders.

Pressure on Germany’s refining system

The PCK Schwedt refinery—a major fuel supplier for the Berlin region—has undergone a transition away from Russian crude and now relies on a mix of alternative sources, including Kazakh oil.

Germany has also been working to diversify supply routes through ports such as Rostock and Gdansk, though logistical and capacity limitations remain.

Kazakhstan accelerates export diversification

To reduce reliance on Russian transit routes, Kazakhstan is increasing shipments through alternative corridors, particularly the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which connects to Mediterranean markets.

However, these routes:

• Have limited capacity compared to Druzhba
• Involve higher transportation costs
• Require additional logistical coordination

Why this matters

• Energy security: Europe’s diversification strategy still faces infrastructure constraints
• Transit leverage: Pipeline geography continues to shape geopolitical influence
• Cost pressures: Alternative routes may increase crude procurement costs
• Supply resilience: Multi-route strategies are becoming essential for long-term stability

FAQs

Q1. Has Russia officially stopped Kazakh oil flows to Germany?

No confirmed full cutoff has been announced; flows continue but remain subject to uncertainty.

Q2. Why is Kazakh oil affected by Russia?

Because Kazakhstan is landlocked and relies on Russian pipeline infrastructure for westward exports.

Q3. Can Germany fully replace these supplies?

Partially. Germany is diversifying via ports and alternative suppliers, but logistical constraints still exist.