Global gas markets stay calm as Hormuz disruption shifts winter risks

By Cygnus | 13 May 2026

Global gas markets remain stable for now as buyers monitor shipping risks and prepare for winter demand. (AI generated)

Summary

Contained volatility: Global LNG spot prices remain relatively stable compared with the 2022 energy crisis, supported by high storage levels, weaker Asian demand growth, and diversified supply sources.
Asian fuel switching: Japan and South Korea have increased coal and nuclear generation to reduce spot LNG purchases, helping ease pressure on international gas markets.
Winter supply concern: Analysts warn that prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could tighten European storage balances later in 2026 if LNG shipments remain delayed.

LONDON, May 13, 2026 — Global natural gas markets have so far avoided the extreme price shocks seen during the 2022 energy crisis, even as geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to raise concerns about LNG shipping routes and winter supply security.

Benchmark Asian LNG prices and European gas contracts remain elevated compared with early 2024 averages, but they are still far below the peaks recorded after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Traders say the market is being supported by relatively healthy storage inventories, slower industrial demand growth, and fuel-switching policies across parts of Asia.

While Qatar remains one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, there is no verified evidence that the Strait of Hormuz has been completely closed or that 20% of global LNG trade has gone offline. However, shipping insurers and market analysts continue to monitor risks to tanker traffic through the Gulf.

Asia turns to coal and nuclear power

One of the key stabilizing factors has been reduced spot LNG demand from Northeast Asia.

Japan has continued extending the operation of some older thermal power plants while also restarting nuclear generation capacity. South Korea has similarly leaned on coal and nuclear generation to manage fuel costs and preserve LNG inventories.

Analysts say these measures have lowered immediate competition for cargoes that would otherwise have been redirected toward Europe.

China’s LNG demand growth has also moderated compared with the rapid rebound seen after the pandemic, partly because of slower industrial activity and stronger domestic coal output.

Europe focuses on storage buildup

Despite the current market calm, energy consultancies warn that risks remain concentrated in the second half of the year.

European buyers are racing to refill underground gas storage facilities ahead of winter. Any prolonged disruption to Middle East shipping routes could slow LNG deliveries and increase freight costs, especially for cargoes rerouted around Africa instead of using shorter Gulf transit paths.

Longer shipping times are already increasing transportation costs and tightening vessel availability, creating upward pressure on delivered LNG prices even without a major physical supply loss.

Market watchers say Europe’s storage trajectory through summer 2026 will be critical in determining whether prices remain stable or surge later in the year.

Why this matters

Energy security pressure: Europe remains heavily dependent on LNG imports after reducing Russian pipeline gas purchases.
Coal comeback: Asian utilities are temporarily prioritizing grid reliability and affordability over short-term emissions reductions.
Shipping costs: Longer LNG shipping routes are increasing freight expenses and delivery times for global buyers.
Winter risk: If geopolitical tensions escalate further, gas inventories entering winter could become significantly tighter.