Trump’s oil diplomacy loses impact as Brent nears $107 amid refining shortages

Summary

• Diminishing market impact: President Donald Trump’s assurances that oil prices will fall have had limited and temporary effects as conflict-related supply risks persist. Brent crude rose to around $106.76 a barrel on October 12, following attacks on Saudi targets and incidents involving tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. 
• Refining capacity constraints: Crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to approximately 80%–90% of pre-war levels, according to ship-tracking data cited by Reuters. However, damage to refineries in Russia and the Middle East continues to constrain supplies of diesel, jet fuel and other refined products. 
• Limited immediate relief from Russian diesel: Trump announced on October 9 that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel, equivalent to approximately 2.25 million barrels, to US and global markets. Further shipments were also outlined. The additional supply could ease shortages, but its impact will depend on delivery schedules, refinery availability and market demand. 

WASHINGTON, October 13, 2026 — President Donald Trump’s efforts to influence global oil prices through public statements and diplomatic initiatives are facing growing limitations as geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt energy markets. Despite a recovery in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and an announced arrangement to increase Russian diesel exports, oil prices remain elevated as traders weigh supply security, shipping costs and damage to refining infrastructure.

When the conflict involving Iran began in late February 2026, Trump’s public suggestions that a diplomatic settlement could be reached helped moderate some market fears. Traders anticipated that a ceasefire and the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would ease supply constraints and bring prices down.

That confidence has weakened following the collapse of a short-lived ceasefire in July and subsequent regional escalation. Attacks involving Saudi targets and commercial tankers have reinforced concerns about the security of energy shipments, even as crude flows through the strategic waterway have improved.

Reuters reported on October 13 that Brent crude had risen by around 2% on October 12 to $106.76 a barrel, its highest level since September 29 at the time of reporting. The move highlighted the limits of diplomatic assurances when traders remain concerned about physical disruptions and the cost of delivering energy to market. 

The arithmetic of Russian diesel supplies

The limitations of Trump’s energy diplomacy became apparent after his October 9 announcement that Russia would increase diesel supplies to the United States and international markets.

According to Reuters, Trump said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel, equivalent to approximately 2.25 million barrels. He also outlined additional deliveries, including 500,000 tonnes in November and a further 1 million tonnes thereafter, subject to the condition of Russian refining infrastructure. The US Treasury issued a general licence permitting Russian diesel imports until April 7, 2027. 

The announcement was accompanied by temporary sanctions relief intended to facilitate the shipments. Trump presented the measure as a way to reduce fuel costs for American farmers, truckers and other consumers facing higher diesel prices.

The scale of the proposed supply needs to be considered in context:

• Initial volume: More than 300,000 metric tonnes, or approximately 2.25 million barrels, according to Trump’s announcement.
• Additional deliveries: Further shipments were outlined for November and subsequent months, although their timing and execution depend on supply conditions.
• Market impact: The additional barrels may provide some relief, but they do not immediately resolve the broader shortage of refined fuels caused by refinery damage and disrupted trade flows.

It would be misleading to treat the initial shipment as though all the additional volumes had already arrived. Nor should the entire proposed supply be assumed to reach the United States, since the announcement covered both US and global markets.

The initial announcement briefly helped ease market concerns, but subsequent price movements demonstrated that traders were still responding to geopolitical developments. On October 12, Brent crude rose while concerns over fresh attacks outweighed expectations of additional Russian fuel supplies. 

Refining constraints: crude oil versus fuel prices

The central challenge for the Trump administration is that the current energy crisis involves both crude supply and the ability to process crude into usable fuels.

Although crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to around 80%–90% of pre-war levels, that recovery has not translated into a comparable restoration of refined fuel exports. Damage to Middle Eastern refineries has left regional fuel exports below half their pre-war levels, according to Reuters reporting published on October 12. 

The distinction matters because crude oil and refined products are different markets. Refineries convert crude into diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and other products used by transport operators, industries and households. A disruption to refining capacity can therefore keep fuel prices elevated even when more crude becomes available.

The combined impact of the Iran conflict and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure has reduced refining capacity. Reuters has reported that more than 2.3 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern refining capacity has been taken offline, while separate reporting has put the combined loss of refining capacity in Russia and the Middle East at approximately 2 million barrels per day. These figures reflect different estimates and scopes and should not be treated as directly interchangeable. 

Restoring damaged facilities is also more complicated than reopening a shipping route. Refineries contain interconnected processing units, including distillation systems and conversion equipment, that require technical inspections, replacement components and testing before normal operations can resume. The time required will vary by facility and the extent of the damage.

Shipping costs present another obstacle. Tanker charter rates, insurance premiums and the logistical complexity of moving cargoes through an active conflict zone can increase delivered crude costs. Consequently, recovering export volumes alone cannot guarantee an immediate reduction in prices for refiners or end users.

For traders, the key indicators are therefore not simply political announcements but actual cargo deliveries, refinery operating rates, fuel inventories and the security of shipping routes.

Why this matters

• Inflation and the US midterm elections: Elevated diesel prices increase costs for trucking, agriculture, construction and other fuel-intensive activities. These pressures are politically significant ahead of the US congressional midterm elections on November 3, 2026. Reuters reported that US diesel prices had climbed to record or near-record levels during the crisis. 
• The limits of diplomatic assurances: Statements about ceasefires or additional supplies may affect short-term market sentiment, but sustained price relief depends on whether cargoes arrive and physical supply risks decline.
• A widening gap between crude and refined products: Recovering crude exports do not necessarily resolve diesel and jet fuel shortages. Refinery damage can keep product prices and refining margins elevated even as crude availability improves.
• Opportunities for Asian refiners: India, China, South Korea and Singapore have substantial refining capacity that could help meet demand while Gulf facilities recover. Reuters reported on October 12 that Asia accounted for approximately 37% of global refining capacity, positioning the region to benefit from greater crude availability and strong refined-product margins. 

FAQs

Q1: Why is Trump’s rhetoric no longer having a lasting effect on oil prices?

Political statements can influence expectations, but their effect weakens when physical supply disruptions persist. Traders are monitoring tanker movements, refinery outages, insurance costs and actual fuel deliveries rather than relying solely on assurances that conflicts will end.

Q2: How much diesel is Russia expected to supply?

Trump announced an immediate supply of more than 300,000 metric tonnes, equivalent to approximately 2.25 million barrels, with further shipments planned. The eventual market impact depends on the volume actually delivered, its destination and the pace at which additional supplies become available. 

Q3: If oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered, why are prices still high?

Crude flows have recovered to approximately 80%–90% of pre-war levels, but shipping remains exposed to security risks and regional refinery damage continues to constrain refined fuel exports. Higher transport costs and uncertainty over future disruptions also support prices.