India’s global clout to rise greatly by 2030: study

A US assessment of future global trends has predicted that in 2030, India could be the rising economic powerhouse of the world, as China is seen to be today. China, however, will be the leading economic power, outstripping the USA.

At the same time, America will remain an indispensable world leader, bolstered in part by an era of energy independence, National Intelligence Council's report 'Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds', the product of four years of intelligence-gathering and analysis. The NIC reports to the director of national intelligence and has responsibilities for long-term strategic analysis.

Russia's clout will wane, as will the economic strength of other countries reliant on oil for revenues, the assessment says.

"In 2030, India could be the rising economic powerhouse that China is seen to be today. China's current economic growth rate - 8 to 10 per cent - will probably be a distant memory by 2030," said the report, adding that India will continue to increase its lead over neighbour Pakistan.

"India's rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China's slows," the report says. China is expected to remain ahead of India, but the gap could begin to close by 2030.

According to the report, the total size of the Chinese working-age population will peak in 2016 and decline from 994 million to about 961 million in 2030.