Maersk trims 2025 global container forecast amid rising trade and geopolitical tensions

Global shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk has revised its outlook for the container shipping market in 2025, citing growing economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability. While the company has kept its profit guidance intact, the lowered forecast reflects increasing caution across the logistics and global trade sectors.

Once a bellwether for international commerce, Maersk now expects global container volumes to fall within a broad range—from a 1% decline to a modest 4% increase. This marks a notable downgrade from its earlier forecast of 4% growth at the start of the year.

Much of the uncertainty stems from the lingering effects of trade tariffs introduced during Donald Trump’s presidency. These tariffs have not only disrupted traditional trade flows but also led companies worldwide to reduce sales projections and rethink global supply chain strategies. Major economies are revising growth targets downward, tightening demand for seaborne freight.

“Policy uncertainty and the threat of further escalations to the trade war cast a shadow over the U.S. economic outlook,” Maersk noted in its first-quarter earnings report. The company also warned of the risk that Chinese exporters, losing access to the U.S. market, might seek alternatives in other regions—potentially triggering retaliatory trade measures and deepening the current climate of protectionism.

Despite this cautious view on global trade volumes, Maersk is holding steady on its earnings forecast for the year. It still expects EBITDA in the range of $6 billion to $9 billion. In the first quarter, the company posted a stronger-than-expected EBITDA of $2.71 billion—a 70% jump from the same period last year and above the $2.41 billion consensus forecast.

Summary:

Maersk’s lowered container shipping forecast signals growing unease in global trade, with economic and geopolitical pressures weighing heavily on the sector. While the company’s profitability remains strong, the outlook for global shipping demand is clouded by trade tensions and policy risks that could reshape international logistics strategies.

FAQs: Understanding Maersk’s Container Market Outlook

1. Why is Maersk’s forecast important to global trade?

Maersk is one of the largest container shipping companies in the world and handles a significant portion of global trade. Its market outlook is often seen as a key indicator of international trade health, making its forecasts closely watched by economists, investors, and policymakers.

2. What factors are driving the forecast downgrade?

Maersk cited a mix of economic slowdown, policy uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical tensions—particularly related to U.S.-China trade relations—as reasons for cutting its 2025 global container volume forecast.

3. How do trade tariffs affect container shipping demand?

Tariffs can disrupt supply chains by making imports and exports more expensive, leading companies to scale back orders or shift supply routes. This, in turn, reduces overall demand for container shipping.

4. What does the revised container volume range mean?

The new forecast range—from a 1% decline to a 4% increase—reflects uncertainty. It suggests that market conditions are volatile, and Maersk is preparing for both a mild contraction or moderate growth in global shipping volumes.

5. Why did Maersk maintain its profit outlook despite lowering its market forecast?

Maersk has managed to improve operational efficiency and control costs, which has helped sustain profitability even amid market volatility. Its strong first-quarter earnings also provided a cushion for maintaining full-year guidance.

6. Could protectionism escalate further?

Yes, Maersk warned that if Chinese exporters redirect shipments to new markets, it could provoke additional trade restrictions globally. This ripple effect may lead to a broader trade war, further complicating the global trade landscape.

7. What should businesses take away from this update?

Companies involved in international trade or reliant on global supply chains should prepare for continued volatility. Strategic diversification of markets and suppliers may help mitigate risk as the trade environment evolves.