RBI lowers 2009-10 GDP growth projection to 6 per cent

The Reserve Bank's professional forecasters survey points to downward revision to the growth outlook from 6.5 per cent to 6.0 per cent in 2009-10 even as GDP grew in the first quarter of 2009-10 at 6.1 per cent representing a modest recovery of over the 5.8 per cent growth recorded during the preceding two quarters in the second half of 2008-09.

In comparison to the high average growth of 8.8 per cent recorded during the five-year period 2003-08, however, the first quarter growth in 2009-10 still points to persistence of slowdown, RBI said in a release.

Information available on various lead indicators in the second quarter of 2009-10 suggests that because of deficient monsoon, kharif output may be adversely affected.

Industrial sector has started exhibiting recovery, with 5.8 per cent growth during April-August 2009, as compared with 4.8 per cent during the corresponding period of the previous year.

Growth in core infrastructure witnessed notable acceleration in August 2009, and for April-August 2009 it was higher at 4.8 per cent as against 3.3 per cent during the corresponding period of the previous year.

Lead indicators for services suggest pick up in activities relating to construction and telecommunication, even though external demand dependent services, such as, tourism and cargo handled at ports, continue to be depressed.