SoftBank Earnings Expected to Get Lift From OpenAI Stake as Funding Questions Grow

Summary

SoftBank Group is poised for a strong quarterly performance driven by valuation gains tied to its stake in OpenAI. However, as the Japanese conglomerate considers further large-scale funding commitments to the AI company, investors are increasingly focused on SoftBank’s leverage, liquidity and long-term balance-sheet discipline.

TOKYO, Feb 10 — Japan’s SoftBank Group is expected to report a sharp improvement in earnings this week, supported by gains linked to its investment in OpenAI, even as attention turns to how the company plans to finance future artificial intelligence ambitions.

SoftBank holds an estimated 11% stake in OpenAI, following a multibillion-dollar investment completed in 2025. That position is expected to deliver significant unrealised valuation gains, boosting SoftBank’s quarterly results and reinforcing its role as one of the most exposed public-market proxies for the privately held AI company.

Funding Strategy in Focus

While the OpenAI stake has lifted SoftBank’s near-term performance, it has also sharpened scrutiny of the group’s funding strategy. According to people familiar with the matter, SoftBank has been in discussions about potentially investing up to a further $30 billion in OpenAI as part of a future fundraising round.

That prospect has raised questions over how SoftBank would finance such commitments. Over the past year, the company has moved to strengthen liquidity through a combination of asset sales and borrowing, including:

• Selling its remaining Nvidia stake, raising about $5.8 billion
• Reducing holdings in T-Mobile US
• Securing loans backed by its stake in Arm Holdings

Analysts at Nomura estimate that these actions have pushed SoftBank’s loan-to-asset ratio higher, reflecting the capital intensity of its renewed push into AI.

Earnings Boost, Structural Risks

Despite leverage concerns, analysts say SoftBank retains considerable financial flexibility, including access to funding secured against Arm and a sizeable cash buffer. Still, the group’s growing concentration in AI-linked assets has become a central theme for investors assessing risk versus reward.

SoftBank’s results are now increasingly sensitive to movements in the valuation of a small number of large AI holdings, particularly OpenAI, underscoring both the upside potential and the volatility inherent in its strategy.

Why This Matters

SoftBank’s earnings underscore a broader shift in global markets, where AI valuations are reshaping corporate balance sheets and investment strategies. As one of the most aggressive backers of artificial intelligence, SoftBank offers a real-time case study in how AI enthusiasm can translate into rapid paper gains — while simultaneously amplifying funding, leverage and concentration risks.

For investors, the key question is no longer whether AI will transform industries, but who can afford to finance that transformation at scale without undermining financial stability. SoftBank’s next moves — particularly around OpenAI funding — may help define how sustainable the current AI investment cycle proves to be.

FAQs

Q1. Why are SoftBank’s earnings expected to benefit from OpenAI?

SoftBank’s stake in OpenAI has increased in value as demand for generative AI technologies has surged, leading to significant unrealised gains that are expected to lift reported earnings.

Q2. How large is SoftBank’s stake in OpenAI?

SoftBank holds roughly 11% of OpenAI following investments completed in 2025.

Q3. Is SoftBank planning to invest more in OpenAI?

SoftBank has been in talks about potentially investing up to an additional $30 billion, though no final decision has been announced.

Q4. What are investors concerned about?

Investors are focused on SoftBank’s leverage, funding sources, and growing exposure to a small number of AI assets, which could increase earnings volatility.

Q5. Does SoftBank still have financial flexibility?

Yes. Analysts note SoftBank retains access to borrowing through Arm-backed loans and maintains substantial liquidity, though leverage has increased.