Recession in its last lap, says NABE survey

The deep and long recession appears to be over, and with improving credit markets, the US economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation, says a survey released yesterday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

''The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 10 per cent in the first quarter of next year and edge down to 9.5 per cent by the end of 2010. Inflation is expected to remain contained throughout 2010,'' a panel of 44 professional forecasters said.

The survey, covering the outlook for 2009 and 2010, was taken from September 2 to 24.

Thirty-five respondents, or 81 per cent, believe the recovery has begun. Only four, or 9 per cent, believe the economy is still in a recession. The other four say they're uncertain.

The report was analysed by William Strauss, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Richard DeKaser, Woodley Park Research; Parul Jain, MacroFin Analytics; and Charles Steindel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The vast majority of business economists believe that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines, said NABE president-elect Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.