Exports from the India are expected to register a 2.2 per cent fall in fiscal 2009-10 (ending March 2010) amidst the global slump, rendering over 1.3 million jobless, a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said in a report.
Export units in India alone will render a whopping 1.3 million people jobless amidst continuing recession in the developed markets, the UNCTAD study said.
"Given such heavy reliance on advanced countries' markets, the impact of slowdown in these countries is being felt in India's trade sector," the report said.
The report comes on the back of huge lay-offs in export units in the country over the past one year. About 1.16 million people have already lost their jobs due to negative export growth in sectors like textiles, the report noted.
The exports sector gives employment to about 50 million people in the country.
"Petroleum products will experience the maximum decline in export growth followed by gems and jewellery, ores and minerals and textiles and its products," it said.
On the positive side, the report noted that some sectors like plantation may witness a positive growth which may bring some relief and moderate of job losses.
The situation in the export sector is expected to revive in the next fiscal (2010-11) and new jobs would be created in the sector, the report said.
"In 2010-11, about 5.22 million jobs could be created,'' the report said, adding, "No job losses are expected as all sectors are expected to experience positive export growth."
India's exports for fiscal 2008-09 marginally rose to levels of around $168 billion against a target of $200 billion.
India's exports, which contribute nearly a fifth of the economy, have been falling since October. The declining trend is expected to last until September 2009.
The report suggests diversification of exports to new markets and products, and reduction of costs by simplifying customs procedures, in order to counter the impact of global slowdown.