India’s economic growth seen lower at 4.4% in Q3 FY23

Gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms or at constant (2011-12) prices in the third quarter (Q3) of the current financial year (2022-23) is estimated at Rs4,019,000 crore, as against Rs3,851,000  crore in Q3 of the previous financial year (2021-22), showing a growth of 4.4 per cent. 

GDP at current Q3 2022-23 prices is estimated at Rs6,938,000 crore, against Rs6,239,000 crore in Q3 of the previous fiscal (2021-22), showing a growth of 11.2 per cent.

GDP in real terms (at constant 2011-12 prices) is estimated to grow at 7 per cent to reach Rs15,971,000 crore in the current financial year, as against the first revised estimate of GDP of Rs14,926,000 crore for the previous fiscal. India’s GDP during 2022-23 is estimated to be lower at 7.0 per cent compared to the 9.1 per cent growth in the previous fiscal (2021-22).

Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of Rs27,204,000 crore, as against Rs23,471,000 crore in 2021-22, showing a growth rate of 15.9 per cent.

Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs27,204,000 crore, as against the first revised estimates of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs23,471,000 crore. The growth in nominal GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 15.9 per cent as compared to 18.4 per cent in 2021-22.

GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2022-23 is estimated at Rs4,019,000 crore, as against Rs3,851,000 crore in Q3 of 2021-22, showing a growth of 4.4 per cent. GDP at current prices in Q3 of 2022-23 is estimated at Rs6,938,000 crore, as against Rs6,239,000 crore in Q3 of 2021-22, showing a growth of 11.2 per cent.

GVA - industry-wise

At the aggregate level, nominal GVA at basic prices has increased by 17.9 per cent during 2021-22 against a decline of 1.0 per cent during 2020-21. Real GVA, ie, GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices, has increased by 8.8 per cent in 2021-22, as against contraction of 4.2 per cent in 2020-21.

The growth rates of primary sector (comprising agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining and quarrying), secondary sector (comprising manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services, and construction) and tertiary sector (services) have been estimated as 3.9 per cent, 12.0 per cent and 8.8 respectively in 2021-22 as against a growth of 2.4 per cent, (-) 0.2 per cent and (-) 8.2 per cent, respectively, in the previous year. The growth in real GVA during 2021-22 is on account of growth in ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘manufacturing’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’, ‘construction’, ‘trade, repair, hotels and restaurants’, ‘transport, storage and communication and services related to broadcasting’ and ‘other services’ as may be seen from statement 4.2B. However, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘financial services’, ‘real estate, ownership of dwelling and professional services’ and ‘public administration and defence’ have witnessed modest growth during this period.

Net national income

Nominal net national income (NNI) or NNI at current prices for the year 2021-22 stands at Rs20,327,000 crore as against R17,223,000 crore in 2020-21, showing a growth of 18 per cent during 2021-22 as against contraction of 3 per cent in the previous year.

Disposable income

Gross national disposable income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated at Rs23,607,00 crore for the year 2021-22, while the estimate for the year 2020-21 stands at Rs20,115,000 crore, showing a growth of 17.4 per cent for year 2021-22 as against contraction of 1.6 per cent in the year 2020-21.

Saving

Gross saving during 2021-22 is estimated at Rs7,077,000 crore against Rs5,717,000 crore during 2020-21. Share of non-financial corporations, financial corporations, general government and household sectors in gross savings during 2021-22 stands at 35.3 per cent, 8.4 per cent, (-) 8.9 per cent and 65.3 per cent, respectively. Rate of gross saving to GNDI for 2021-22 is estimated at 30 per cent as against 28.4 per cent for 2020-21.

Capital formation

Gross capital formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs7,362,000 crore for the year 2021-22  compared to Rs5,527,000 crore during 2020-21. The rate of GCF to GDP stood at 31.4 per cent during 2021-22 as against 27.9 per cent in the 2020-21. The rates of capital formation in the years 2011-12 to 2019-20 and 2021-22 have been higher than the rate of saving because of positive net capital flow from RoW.

In terms of the share to the total GFCF (at current prices), the highest contributor is non-financial corporations, followed by household sector, share of which stood at 44.1 per cent and 40.5 per cent, respectively, in 2021-22.

The rate of GCF to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices was 31.7 per cent in 2020-21 and 35.5 per cent in 2021-22.

Consumption expenditure

Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs14,344,000 crore for the year 2021-22 as against Rs12,150,000 crore in 2020-21. In relation to GDP, the PFCE to GDP ratio at current prices during 2020-21 and 2021-22 were 61.3 per cent and 61.1 per cent, respectively. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs7.824,000 crore and Rs8,704,000 crore, respectively, for the years 2020-21 and 2021-22. The corresponding PFCE to GDP ratio for the years 2020-21 and 2021-22 are 57.2 per cent and 58.3 per cent, respectively.

Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs2,625,000 crore for the year 2021-22 against Rs2,303,000 crore during 2020-21. At constant (2011-12) prices the estimates of GFCE for the years 2020-21 and 2021-22 stand at Rs1,478,000 crore and Rs1,575,000 crore, respectively.

Per capita estimates

Per capita net national income at current prices is estimated at Rs1,27,065 and Rs1,48,524, respectively, for the years 2020-21 and 2021-22. Per capita PFCE, at current prices, for the years 2020-21 and 2021-22 is estimated at Rs89,641 and Rs104,811, respectively.

GVA estimates of agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors have undergone revision due to revision in production estimates of crop sector as per fourth advance estimate of the ministry of agriculture and farmers welfare. Also, for horticulture sector, third advance estimates of production have been used. The revision in other industries in primary sector is attributed to the incorporation of latest revised data.

Estimates of secondary sector have undergone upward revision due to availability of additional data in respect of companies post PE FY 2021-22 release and revision in input data by source agencies.

Estimates of tertiary sector have undergone upward revision due to availability of additional data in respect of companies post PE FY 2021-22 release and revision in input data by source agencies. Furthermore, the revision is due to the use of revised estimates (RE) from union and state government budget documents and the information on actual expenditure of various ministries/departments of the central government for 2021-22.