Crisil cuts India's GDP growth this fiscal to 6.9 per cent
01 August 2019
Crisil has sliced its estimate of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 20 basis points to 6.9 per cent for this fiscal, following a triangulation of downside risks — weak monsoon, slowing global growth, and sluggish high-frequency data for the first quarter.
The slowdown would be pronounced in the first half, while the second half should find support from expected monetary easing, consumption, and statistical low-base effect, Crisil said, while releasing its report on the outlook for India in fiscal 2019 titled ‘Uphill trek’.
Agricultural terms of trade are also expected to improve with a pick-up in food inflation. In addition, farmers would benefit from income transfer of Rs6,000 per year announced by the Centre, and farm loan waivers in a few states.
Says Ashu Suyash, managing director & CEO, CRISIL Ltd, “Given the crosswinds, the sops announced so far might not be enough to pitchfork growth in this fiscal to, or above, the past 14-year average of 7 per cent per annum. Policy action looks more attuned to consumption than investment demand, which means consumption will be the first to ascend as the tide turns.”