India's economy grew at 7.6 per cent in FY16

news
31 May 2016

India's real gross domestic product or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2015-16 stood a shade lower at Rs11,350,000 crore against the previously estimated Rs11,351,000 crore, although the rate of growth remained unchanged at 7.6 per cent.

India's real gross domestic product or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2015-16 is now estimated to have expanded at 7.6 per cent to Rs11,350,000 crore against the previously estimated Rs11,351,000 crore (estimated on 8 February 2016), which also showed a growth rate of 7.6 per cent over the first revised estimates of GDP for the year 2014-15 of Rs10,552,000 crore, released on 29 January 2016.

GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2015-16 is estimated at Rs30,12,000 crore, against Rs27,90,000 crore in Q4 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 7.9 per cent. GVA at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2015-16 is estimated at Rs26,88,000 crore, against Rs25,.03,000 crore in Q4 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 7.4 per cent.

Real gross value added (GVA), ie, GVA at basic constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2015-16 is now estimated at Rs10,427,000 crore, against Rs10,438,000 crore estimated earlier (on 8 February 2016), showing a growth rate of 7.2 per cent against 7.3 per cent estimated earlier over the first revised estimates of GVA for the year 2014-15 of Rs97,27,000 crore, released on 29 January 2016.

The sectors which registered growth rate of over 7.0 per cent are 'financial, real estate and professional services' (10.3 per cent), manufacturing (9.3 per cent), 'trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting' (9.0 per cent), and 'mining and quarrying' (7.4 per cent). Growth in the 'agriculture, forestry and fishing', 'construction', 'electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services', 'public administration, defence  and other services' is estimated T 1.2 per cent, 3.9 per cent, 6.6 per cent and 6.6 per cent, respectively.

The 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' sector has shown a growth rate of 1.2 per cent, against the growth rate of 1.1 per cent in the advance estimates. The upward revision is based on the third advance estimates of crop production released by the ministry of agriculture, whicg showed food grain production at 252.23 million tonnes in  2015-16 which is higher compared to the tentative estimates of food grain production used for compiling the advance estimates.  Crops, including fruits and vegetables, account for 61 per cent of GVA in 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' sector. Around 39 per cent of GVA of this sector is based on livestock products, forestry, fishing and aquaculture, which has  registered  a combined growth of around 5.0 per cent.

The 'mining and quarrying' sector has shown a growth rate of 7.4 per cent, as against the growth rate of 6.9 per cent in the Advance estimates. The upward revision is mainly on account of use of latest available private corporate result, which showed growth in the mining sector based on major listed companies was   (-) 0.2 per cent against (-) 2.8 per cent used  in the advance estimate. The index of industrial production of mining registered growth of 2.2 per cent during  2015-16 as against  growth rate of  2.1 per cent  used  for compiling  advance estimates. Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 4.6 per cent and (-) 1.4 per cent during 2015-16.

'Manufacturing ' sector is now estimated to have grown at 9.3 per cent against the growth rate of 9.5 per cent in the advance estimates. Private corporate sector growth (which has a share of around 69 per cent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE was 10.0 per cent at current prices during 2015-16. The IIP of manufacturing recorded a growth of 2.0 per cent during the whole of 2015-16, against a growth rate of 3.9 per cent used for compiling advance estimates. Hence the Advance estimate growth of 'manufacturing' sector has been revised downwards to 9.3 per cent.

GVA at basic prices for 2015-16 from 'electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services' sector is estimated to have grown by 6.6 per cent as compared to growth of 5.9 per cent in the advance estimate. IIP of Electricity recorded a growth rate of 5.6 per cent during April-March 2015-16 against the estimated growth rate of 4.6 per cent used for compiling advance estimates.

Key indicators of the construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 4.6 per cent and 4.3 per cent, respectively, during 2015-16 against 2.2 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively, during April-December 2015. Consequently, the growth of the sector is revised to 3.9 per cent against 3.7 per cent in the advance estimates.

GVA at basic prices for 2015-16 for the sector `trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting' is now estimated to have grown by 9.0 per against a growth of 9.5 per cent in the advance estimates of 2015-16. Key indicators used for estimating GVA from trade sector is the sales tax collections, which, according to available data on state accounts, grew by 6.8 per cent during 2015-16. Private corporate sector growth in the hotels and restaurant sector as estimated from available data from listed companies at current prices is 21.5 per cent during April-March 2015-16 which is lower than the 26.5 per cent growth used in the advance estimates.

Among the other services sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major sea ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 11.5 per cent, 4.3 per cent, 7.5 per cent and 17.3 per cent, respectively, during April-March of 2015-16. Indicators of railway sector, namely, net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth of (-) 4.5 per cent and (-) 0.1 per cent, respectively, during 2015-16.

The 'financial, real estate and professional services' sector has shown a growth rate of 10.3 per cent during 2015-16 same as projected growth in the advance estimates. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 71.0 per cent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for computer related activities which is estimated from available data from listed companies at current prices is 10.1 per cent during April-March, 2015-16. The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth of 9.9 per cent and 11.3 per cent, respectively as of 31 March 2016.

The 'public administration, defence and other services' sector has shown a growth rate of 6.6 per cent in the provisional estimates, as against the growth rate of 6.9 per cent in the advance estimates. The downward revision is mainly on account of use of updated information on state government revenue expenditure.

Gross National Income: Gross national income (GNI) at 2011-12 prices is now estimated at Rs11,213,000 crore for 2015-16, against Rs11,214,000 crore estimated earlier, as against the previous year's first revised estimate of Rs10,428,000 crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 7.5 per cent during 2015-16, in comparison to the growth rate of 7.3 per cent in 2014-15.

Per Capita Income: Per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2015-16 is likely to attain a level of Rs77435 against Rs72,889 for the year 2014-15. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 6.2 per cent during 2015-16, as against 5.8 per cent in the previous year.





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