IMF projects 7.3% growth for Indian economy

20 January 2016

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected 7.3 per cent growth for the Indian economy in the current financial year and 7.5 per cent in 2016-17, even as it cut global forecast, citing uneven and weak growth across economies. China is projected to grow 6.9 per cent in 2015-16, 6.3 per cent in 2016-17 and 6 per cent in 2017-18.

According to Indian authorities the economy would grow 7.1 - 7.5 per cent in the current fiscal and then accelerate in the years ahead. The World Economic Outlook update has pegged growth at 3.4 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent in 2017, slightly lower than the forecast (3.6 per cent for 2016 and 3.8 per cent for 2017) issued in October 2015.

According to the World Bank, India would grow at 7.5 per cent in 2015-16 and 7.8 per cent in 2016-17, while Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects 7.4 per cent & 7.8 per cent growth respectively. According to the IMF the Indian economy remained a bright spot against the backdrop of a gloomy global growth.

"India and parts of emerging Asia are bright spots, projected to grow at a robust pace, whereas Latin America and the Caribbean will again see a contraction in 2016, reflecting the recession in Brazil and economic stress elsewhere in the region, even as most other countries in the region will continue to grow," IMF said.

According to commentators, the IMF figures project faster growth this year but the projections were 0.2 percentage points lower than its fall estimates - a sign that the global recovery was still struggling to build momentum.

"Growth expectations seem to fall consistently," said Maury Obstfeld, economic counselor at the IMF. "I think the year coming is going to be a year of great challenges."

Fears that the outlook could be even darker had spooked financial markets during the first few weeks of the year. China officially entered a bear market, announcing late Monday that its growth rate had slowed to 6.9 per cent in 2015, the slowest in a quarter-century.

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