Q1 GDP growth decelerates to 7% as GVA rate increases to 7.1%

news
01 September 2015

India's economy grew at a slower pace of 7.0 per cent in the first quarter of the current year (April-June 2015-16) in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) compared to a higher growth rate of 7.5 per cent in the previous quarter (January-March 2014-15). In terms of gross value added (GVA), however, the Indian economy grew at 7.1 per cent in the April-June 2015-16 quarter compared to a growth rate of 6.1 per cent in the January-march 2014-15 quarter.

GDP at constant (2011-12) prices grew at a slower pace of 7 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal (April-June 2015-16) to an estimated Rs2,713,000 crore against Rs2,535,000 crore in Q1 of 2014-15, which in turn showed a growth of 7.5 per cent.

However, in terms of gross value added (GVA) the economy, at basic constant (2011-12) prices, grew at 7.1 per cent during the April-June FY16 quarter to an estimated Rs2,580,000 crore against Rs2,410,000 crore in Q1 of 2014-15.

During the first quarter of the current fiscal, sectors such as manufacturing, trade, hotels and transport and communication and services related to broadcasting as also financial, insurance, real estate and professional services recorded growth rates of over 7 per cent.

Sectors such as agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, construction and public administration, defence and other services recorded growth rates of 1.9 per cent, 4.0 per cent, 3.2 per cent, 6.9 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively, during the quarter.

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2015-16 from 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' sector grew 1.9 per cent compared to a growth of 2.6 per cent in Q1 2014-15.

As per estimate of GVA from agriculture  in Q1 of 2015-16, production of rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses recorded growth rates of (-) 8.0 per cent, (-) 7.2 per cent, (-) 1.4 per cent and (-) 12.8 per cent respectively during  the Rabi  season  of  agriculture year 2014-15 (which ended in June 2015).

Among commercial crops, production of oilseeds declined by 17.6 per cent during the Rabi season of 2014-15.

Crops, including fruits and vegetables, account for about 59.0 per cent of GDP in 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' sector. 

Around 41.0 per cent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of above 6 per cent in Q1 of 2015-16.

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2015-16 from 'mining and quarrying' sector grew 4.0 per cent compared to a growth of 4.3 per cent in Q1 2014-15. 

The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas and IIP mining recorded growth rates of 7.3 per cent translating to a decline of  (-) 0.9 per cent, (-) 4.2 per cent. Their growth was 0.7 per cent, during Q1 of 2015-16 compared to 6.6 per cent or a decline of (-) 0.1 per cent, (-) 3.9 per cent and 2.9 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15. 

Mining sector production in the private corporate sector as estimated for major listed companies of BSE and NSE at current prices stood at 8 per cent in Q1 of 2015-16 against 23.5 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15.

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 of 2015-16 from 'manufacturing' sector grew 7.2 per cent compared to a growth of 8.4 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15. Manufacturing growth in the private corporate sector (which has a share of around 65 per cent in the sector) based on available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE stood at 7.9 per cent at current prices during Q1 of 2015-16 against 13.8 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15.

The quasi corporate and unorganised segment (which has a share of around 27 per cent in the manufacturing sector) recorded growth rates of 3.6 per cent during Q1 of 2015-16 compared to 3.9 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15.

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for  Q1 of 2015-16 from 'electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services' grew 3.2 per cent compared to a growth of 10.1 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of electricity recorded growth rate of 2.3 per cent during Q1 of 2015-16 compared to 11.3 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15.

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 of 2015-16 from 'construction' sector grew 6.9 per cent compared to a growth of 6.5 per cent in Q1 2014-15. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel recorded growth rates of 0.9 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively, during Q1 of 2015-16 compared to 9.6 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively, in Q1 of 2014-15.

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 of 2015-16 from service sector activities such as trade, hotels and transport and communication and services related to broadcasting, grew 12.8 per cent compared to a growth of 12.1 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15.

Key indicator used for estimating GVA from trade sector, ie, sales tax collections, grew 9.4 per cent during Q1 of 2015-16.

Hotels and restaurants in the private corporate sector as estimated from available data from listed companies with BSE and NSE at current prices stood at 24.8 per cent during Q1 of 2015-16.

Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rates of 1.0 per cent and (-) 5.8 per cent, respectively, during Q1 of 2015-16. 

In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation and cargo handled at major ports recorded growth rates of 15.3 per cent, 8.7 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively, during Q1 of 2015-16 compared to 7.5 per cent, 6.2 per cent and 4.2 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15.

Sales of commercial vehicles recorded 3.6 per cent growth during Q1 of 2015-16 against a decline of 16.1 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15.

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for the financial, insurance, real estate and professional services sector grew at 8.9 per cent in Q1 of 2015-16 compared to a growth of 9.3 per cent in Q1 2014-15. Major component of this industry, namely real estate and professional services, has a share of 73 per cent in the sector.

Growth in real estate sector and computer related activities as estimated from available data from listed companies with BSE and NSE at current prices stood at 3.0 per cent and 7.5 per cent, respectively, during Q1 of 2015-16.

The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 11.4 per cent, and 9.3 per cent, respectively as of June 2015 against a growth of  12.4 per cent and 13.3 per cent, respectively, as on June 2014.

Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2015-16 from sector comprising public administration, defence and other services, grew 2.7 per cent compared to a growth of 2.8 per cent in Q1 2014-15. The key indicator of this sector, namely, union government expenditure, grew 4.2 per cent during Q1 of 2015-16 compared to 8.2 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15.





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