India can emerge as the world's second largest economy by 2039 if it continues to grow at the rate of 8-9 per cent annually, according to economist Harinder Kohli, former senior advisor and director of the World Bank.
Kohli said India's average per capita income would jump 22 times from $940 to $22,000 in 30 years from now. "India's footprint in the global economy will go to more than 17 per cent in 2039 from less than two per cent in 2007," he added.
But he underlined that this could become a reality only if the current economic growth momentum is sustained in the next three decades. "It (India becoming the world's second largest economy and related indicators) could happen if things go well. That is, if all goes well," he cautioned.
At a Confederation of Indian Industry-organised session on 'India 2039 - an affluent society in one generation', Kohli warned against India getting caught in the "middle income trap" similar to that experienced by Mexico and Brazil.
This, he explained, happens when countries start stagnating after reaching middle income levels and don't grow to advanced country levels.
Countries getting into such a trap are unable to compete with low-income, low-wage economies in manufacturing exports and also unable to compete with advanced economies in high-skill innovations.