Southwest monsoon rainfall in India likely to be normal, says IMD
16 April 2019
Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal and is estimated to be 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5 per cent, according to the weather bureau.
The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 was 89 cm.
Overall rainfall in the country is expected to be well distributed during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing kharif season, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
The IMD, which forecasts long-term climate variations in the country, said weak El Niño conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season.
Sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific (El Niño/La Niña) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole-IOD) which are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon are being continuously monitored, it added.
IMD will issue the second stage Monsoon-2019 forecast during the first week of June 2019.
The IMD issues operational forecast for the southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June. These forecasts are prepared using state-of-the-art statistical ensemble forecasting system (SEFS) and using the dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere global
Climate Forecasting System (CFS) model developed under Monsoon Mission of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
The forecast based on the CFS model suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2019 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 94 per cent ± 5 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5 per cent.