Nifty ends below 8200, Sensex climbs 260 points; FMCG gains

3:30 pm Market closing: After a lot of struggle the Nifty could not touch 8200. The 50-share index ended up 82.20 points or 1 percent at 8185.80 while the Sensex was up 260.31 points or 0.9 percent at 26626.46. The Sensex gained 2 percent, Nifty climbed 3 percent in 2016. Bank Nifty climbed most, up 8 percent in the year.

Sun Pharma, GAIL, ITC, Infosys and BHEL were top gainers while Bajaj Auto, Tata Steel, Dr Reddy's Labs, HDFC Bank and ONGC were losers in the Sensex.

2:50 pm Exclusive: India is likely to sign Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) amendments with Singapore today in its long drawn battle against black money, say sources privy to the development. The Singapore Deputy Prime Minister is scheduled to meet Finance Minister Arun Jaitley today evening.

It would be interesting to see whether the DTAA's modification will have a provision on capital gains akin to the Mauritius Treaty, whereby any investment made by a foreign institutional investor before March 31 2017, will enjoy full capital gain exemptions, says Abhishek Goenka, Partner at PwC.

2:30 pm Market outlook: Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Nilesh Shah, Managing Director at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, said that it is better to wait for results from the demonetistiaon move. He spoke about domestic institutional investors buying. He said that whenever markets have corrected below 8050, there is lumpsum investment. This is cash we are receiving on a daily basis and deploying into the markets, he said. He is cautious on real estate sector as it has been witnessing a slowdown. Gold and jewellery is also one sector which is seeing a downturn. He expects magic from the Budget. He would like the government to cut tax rates, spend more infrastructure and honour its fiscal deficit commitment.

The market is gearing up for a strong close to 2016 last trading day. The Sensex is up 272.93 points or 1 percent at 26639.08, and the Nifty up 79.10 points or 0.9 percent at 8182.70. About 1743 shares have advanced, 728 shares declined, and 175 shares are unchanged.

ITC, Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, Asian Paints and Axis Bank are top gainers while Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto, Dr Reddy, ONGC and Bharti Airtel are losers in the Sensex.

European bourses started the last trading day of 2016 slightly in the red.The pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 was 0.06 percent lower with the major bourses trading in the red. The London Stock Exchange will close early Friday at 12:30 UK time while the German DAX will close at 2pm.

Stocks in the auto sector were down by 0.28 percent. Healthcare stocks were also among the worst performers, falling 0.25 percent.

1:50 pm Interview: Demonetisation has impacted informal industry, which was one of its aims, says Piyush Goyal, the Minister of State for Power, Coal, New and Renewable Energy and Mines. It is an ''effort to give poor high dividends and better lifestyle,'' he says adding that demonetisation has been a success in all ways. Inflation will come down owning to the government's clean-up drive. Clarifying the Ordinance of demonetisation, Goyal said that there is no jail term, but penalty for hoarding old, banned currency. Coming to the UDAY scheme of power ministry for dealing with stressed assets, Goyal said 1-2 more big states are expected to join in by next week. After this, almost all states will come under UDAY.

1:30 pm Market outlook: Dilip Bhat, Joint MD, Prabhudas Lilladher said that he expects some kind of a pre-Budge rally. This rally will largely pin its hopes on PM assuaging sentiments in terms of taxes. ''I think a talk on those lines will help sentiments." The FII flows were negative for the quarter ending December, and it has taken a toll on the Nifty. Whether this will turn positive for the new year or not will have to be watched, he said. From the Rs 15 lakh crore money that has come back into the bakning usystem, some of it will percolate into the market. And it will provide a tailwind.

Buying continues on Dalal Street with both benchmark indices rising 1 percent. The Sensex is up 272.65 points or 1 percent at 26638.80 and the Nifty is up 77.85 points or 0.9 percent at 8181.45. About 1742 shares have advanced, 689 shares declined, and 162 shares are unchanged.

ITC, Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, Adani Ports and Reliance are top gainers while Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Dr Reddy's and Bajaj Auto are losers in the Sensex.

Giving companies like Vodafone and Cairn Energy one more month to accept its offer to settle retro tax disputes, the government has extended till January
31 its one-time tax dispute resolution scheme.

The Direct Tax Dispute Resolution Scheme, announced by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in the budget for 2016-17, seeks not just to settle disputes in retrospective taxes, but end nearly 2.6 lakh pending tax cases where Rs 5.16 lakh crore
are locked in.
 
The offer to settle the disputes was to end on December 31, but it has now been extended till January 31, said the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT).

12:50 pm Bank woes: The struggle on bad loans that soared to menacing proportion in 2016 would continue in the new year as many more industrial units, especially in the MSME sector, may turn defaulters due to the cash shortage following demonetisation.

The withdrawal of high-value cash will also hit the bottom line of banks that have been busy exchanging old notes and issuing valid currency at the cost of credit growth and loan recovery.

The banking sector came almost to a standstill for nearly two months after the surprise announcement by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 8 scrapping Rs 500 and 1,000 notes.

Out of the 27 public sector banks, 14 posted losses, aggregating Rs 34,142 crore, last fiscal and the trend has not shown any improvement in the first half of 2016-17.

12:30 pm Market outlook: CNBC-TV18 Dilip Bhat, Joint MD, Prabhudas Lilladher expects some kind of a pre-Budge rally. This rally will largely pin its hopes on PM assuaging sentiments in terms of taxes. ''I think a talk on those lines will help sentiments." The FII flows were negative for the quarter ending December, and it has taken a toll on the Nifty. Whether this will turn positive for the new year or not will have to be watched, he said. From the Rs 15 lakh crore money that has come back into the bakning usystem, some of it will percolate into the market. And it will provide a tailwind.

The market remains in full spirit for gains as investors trade for last time in 2016. The Sensex is up 263.31 points or 1 percent at 26629.46 and the Nifty is up 74.90 points or 0.9 percent at 8178.50. About 1691 shares have advanced, 570 shares declined, and 145 shares are unchanged.

ITC, ICICI Bank, Adani Ports, Sun Pharma and SBI are top gainers while Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors and Tata Steel are losers in the Sensex. Midcap index is also up.

Crude oil, rubber and metals were set to end 2016 on Friday with strong gains, bouncing back from several years of losses on the back of output cuts and expectations of firmer demand. Benchmark zinc, steel rebar and rubber have all rallied around 60 percent this year, while Brent crude has climbed more than 50 percent.

Crude oil output cuts announced by OPEC, stronger-than-expected demand in top commodities market China and expectations of higher infrastructure spending in the United States after the victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump all boosted prices.

11:55 am NSE IPO plans: NSE is all set to come out with its Rs 10,000 crore IPO and IFCI which holds 3.05 percent stake is in focus. Sanjeev Kaushik of IFCI, speaking to CNBC-TV18, said that board has taken a decision to offload 25 percent of its direct holding in NSE.

IFCI directly holds 3.05 percent which works out to about 13,72,000 shares. Stock Holding, a hundred percent subsidiary of IFCI, has 4.4 percent in NSE.

It has no plans to offload its 4.4 percent, he said, adding that they have chosen the OFS route to offload their direct holding.

The direct holding was acquired for about Rs 130 crore and they have been partially divesting some portion of the stake. The proceeds of the stake sale will be used for shoring up the capital, he said.

11:45 am Coal mine collapse: At least 40-50 workers along with some machineries belonging to a private coal mining company Eastern Coalfields Limited (ECL) are believed to be trapped after a heap of mud caved-in at the entry point of Latmatia mines in Godda district of Jharkhand, a CISF official said on Friday.

According to initial reports, the on duty CISF sentry is safe but at the time of the cave-in at the Rajmahal Open Cast Mines of Paharia Bhorya site, more than 40 vehicles were inside.

Rescue operation could not begin due to night fog, a police official said. The locals said that there was crack in the heap of mud which collapsed and blocked the entry point of the mine.

11:30 am Interview: The demonetisation pain is likely to lessen by February-end or early march next year bringing normalcy back into the system, Keki Mistry, VC & CEO of HDFC.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Mistry said that some redistribution of wealth has happened with money going into the hands of poor people, which will boost consumption.

In the upcoming Budget, agriculture and housing are likely to be the focus sectors, according to Mistry. The government also needs to look at reducing tax rates, which will also help in cutting black money circulation.

The Sensex is up 214.30 points or 0.8 percent at 26580.45, and the Nifty up 59.45 points or 0.7 percent at 8163.05. About 1623 shares have advanced, 498 shares declined, and 114 shares are unchanged.

ICICI Bank, ITC, BHEL, SBI and Reliance are top gainers while Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Dr Reddy's, Tata Steel and Coal India are losers in the Sensex.

Gold prices rose Rs 28 to Rs 27,590 per 10 grams in futures trade as speculators created fresh positions taking positive cues from the global market.

Analysts said, fresh positions created by participants following a better trend in global market as weakness in the dollar raised demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven assets, influenced gold prices at futures trade here.

10:55 am Interview: The demonetisation pain is likely to lessen by February-end or early march next year bringing normalcy back into the system, Keki Mistry, VC & CEO of HDFC.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Mistry said that some redistribution of wealth has happened with money going into the hands of poor people, which will boost consumption.

In the upcoming Budget, agriculture and housing are likely to be the focus sectors, according to Mistry. The government also needs to look at reducing tax rates, which will also help in cutting black money circulation.

10:45 am Banks stress test: The banking sector continues to face "significant" level of stress as the asset quality has deteriorated further with the banks' gross non-performing advances increasing to 9.1 percent in September from 7.8 percent in March, says the RBI.

"The gross non-performing advances (GNPAs) ratio of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) increased to 9.1 percent from 7.8 percent between March and September 2016, pushing the overall stressed advances ratio to 12.3 percent from 11.5 percent," the Financial Stability Report (FSR) released by the RBI said today.

It said given the higher levels of impairment, the banks may remain risk averse in the near future as they clean up their balance sheets and their capital position may remain insufficient to support higher credit growth.

10:30 am Demonetisation: To ease the impact and pain of cash crunch, government will have to give a positive spin, said Pronab Sen, former Principal Advisor at Planning Commission in an interview with CNBC-TV18. The impact of demonetisation will not be visible in the current quarter (Q3) gross domestic growth on back of good agriculture growth, he said. The Kharif sowing has been good, which will lessen the impact. Informal sectors – that suffered due to demonetisation – is not included in the GDP calculation and hence, the impact on Q4 will also not be much. Sen added that the existing rural stress would not be reflected in Q3 or Q4 numbers.

The market continues to rally on support of banks, infra, FMCG and pharma stocks. The Sensex is up 219.96 points or 0.8 percent at 26586.11, and the Nifty up 65.10 points or 0.8 percent at 8168.70. About 1483 shares have advanced, 358 shares declined, and 79 shares are unchanged.

ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, BHEL, ITC and SBI are top gainers while Bharti, Coal India and Dr Reddy's Labs are losers in the Sensex.

Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley believes key drivers for the market mood in Q1FY17 remain incoming growth data, global cues especially on US tightening, President-elect Trump's fiscal plans, commodity prices and the forthcoming Budget on February 1.

He expects the U-shaped earnings recovery to be delayed by a quarter or two and estimates an earnings growth of 2 percent Y-o-Y for FY17 and 18 percent for FY18.

"Improving external environment augers well for earnings, although headwinds from higher oil prices and some demand impact due to the recent currency ban could weigh on earnings in the near team," he adds.

9:55 am Tax collection: Government's direct tax kitty has swelled to Rs 5.57 lakh crore between April 1 and December 19, thereby achieving 65 percent of budget estimates.

The mop up from indirect tax, which comprises customs, excise and service tax, in April-November period jumped 26.2 percent to Rs 7.53 lakh crore.

Belying fears of slowdown in industrial activity post demonetisation, the indirect tax collection in November alone grew 23.1 percent to Rs 67,358 crore.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said, irrespective of what critics had predicted, figures revealed that till November 30, there is a significant increase in indirect taxes.

9:45 am FII: Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley said, "Key drivers for the market mood in Q1FY17 remain incoming growth data, global cues especially on US tightening, President-elect Trump's fiscal plans, commodity prices and the forthcoming Budget on February 1."

"We expect the U-shaped earnings recovery to be delayed by a quarter or two. We estimate an earnings growth of 2 percent Y-o-Y for FY17 and 18 percent for FY18."

"Improving external environment augers well for earnings, although headwinds from higher oil prices and some demand impact due to the recent currency ban could weigh on earnings in the near team," he added.

9:30 am Market gains: The market manages to climb as the Sensex is up 171.12 points or 0.6 percent at 26537.27. The Nifty is up 52.20 points or 0.6 percent at 8155.80. About 1202 shares have advanced, 271 shares declined, and 53 shares are unchanged.

ICICI Bank, ITC, Asian Paints, Maruti and Sun Pharma are top gainers while Bharti Airtel, Coal India and Bajaj Auto are losers in the Sensex,

The market has kick-started January Futures and Options (F&O) series on a flat note. The Sensex is up 54.61 points or 0.2 percent at 26420.76 and the Nifty is up 16.05 points or 0.2 percent at 8119.65. About 215 shares have advanced, 50 shares declined, and 19 shares are unchanged. Investors will be keenly watching for any government announcement as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 50-day demonetisation deadline draws to a close today.

Cipla, ONGC, Maruti, Axis Bank and Asian Paints are top gainers while HDFC, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, Infosys and Reliance are losers in the Sensex.

The Indian rupee gained in the early trade. It has opened higher by 15 paise at 67.95 per dollar versus 68.10 Thursday.

Bhaskar Panda of HDFC Bank said, "Festive fervour is the theme right now across the world. The dollar index has given up some of the recent gains and is trading below 103. EM currencies are still under cloud."

"USD-INR is expected to trade within 67.80-68.10/dollar range," he added.

The US dollar slipped against the yen and the euro as traders use the quiet holiday period to take profits on the dollar's recent gains, while a drop in US treasury yields on waning risk appetite reduced the greenback's appeal.

Globally, Asian stocks and the dollar were off to a subdued start as investors took profits on the last trading day of 2016, while the euro briefly spiked in thin trade.
The euro jumped as much as 2 percent early on Friday, its biggest intraday gain since November 8, before settling back down to trade 0.6 percent higher at USD 1.0559.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was little changed early on Friday. In a year marked by major political surprises, including Brexit and the unexpected election of political novice Donald Trump to US President in November, Asia ex-Japan stocks are poised to post a 3.3 percent gain.

Wall Street ended slightly lower on Thursday, held down by bank shares in quiet holiday trading as traders looked to position for the new year.

US equities have stalled in recent days after rallying in the wake of Donald Trump's November 8 election as US president. Investors are betting on benefits from Trump's plans to cut taxes and regulations and introduce fresh economic stimulus.