Record closing high: Nifty ends at 7014, Sensex up 557 points
12 May 2014
3:55 pm Macro poll: IIP and CPI data expected today may not be much in focus because all eyes will be on the exit poll results. However, since the April consumer price index (CPI) is going to be more important than the March Index of Industrial Production (IIP), there is an expectation of an uptick to around 8.5 percent for the month versus 8.31 percent on a month-on-month basis. Since January this year the CIP has been ranging above the 8 percent mark.
According to CNBC-TV18 poll, the range could be anywhere between 8.3 and 8.7 percent but one needs to watch out for the core CPI which has been sub 8 percent since February 2014. The uptick expected in the CPI (M-o-M) is on the expectation of food inflation coming around 9.5 percent versus 9.1 percent on M-o-M basis. The hike in food inflation is due to the impact of hail storm which led to increase in rice prices to the tune of 5 percent. The vegetable inflation too, which leads the food inflation is expected to rise to 17-18 percent as against 16.8 percent on a M-o-M basis. The M-o-M mandi prices have risen 13.6 percent in April 2014
3:40 pm Market closing: It is another record closing high day on Dalal Street as the Sensex ends above 23,500 for first time ever. The Sensex was up 556.77 points or 2.42 percent at 23551. Nifty posts biggest two-day gains since August 2011 and ends at 7014.25, up 155.45 points or 2.27 percent.
Both the Nifty and Sensex gained over 5.3 percent in last two trading sessions. Bank Nifty gained over 300 points to end at life high of 14,091. HDFC Bank was top contributor to Bank Nifty, contributing over 170 points. ITC and HDFC Bank are top contributors to Nifty, contributing over 40 points. PSU, oil & gas stocks lead market rally, gain over 3 percent each.
Barring pharma stocks, all indices ended trade in the green.
3:30 pm Big bull: In an exclusive interview to CNBC-TV18, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said he is confident that NDA will form a government and believes that India is in the initial stages of a bull run.
''We are in the initial stages of what is going to be the mother of all bull markets that India has seen. And the ground for the bull market has been raised by a lot of things, primarily by India as a country. It is going to evolve and grow. Five years of no movement in the index and a large amount of foreign money coming in to the markets,'' he said.
''This bull market is going to be a culmination. But the kingmaker point is going to be that what has happened in the government mis-governance-I think it is set to get corrected. That is the market's belief and I think Indian people are skilled and all that. India has got all the ingredients for very good growth and for a lot of investment in equities,'' he told CNBC-TV18.
3:20 pm Oil update: Brent crude oil rose above USD108 per barrel as the deepening crisis between Russia and Ukraine unsettled investors.
Though the likelihood of any energy supply disruption is remote, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the world's top oil exporter was willing to supply more crude in the event of a shortage.
Pro-Moscow rebels claimed a resounding victory in Sunday's referendum in eastern Ukraine, with some saying that meant independence and others eventual union with Russia, as clashes broke out between separatists and troops.
Brent crude was up 47 cents at USD 108.36 by 0836 GMT after touching a 1-1/2-week high of USD 109.02 on Friday. U.S. crude gained 18 cents to USD 100.17 after peaking at $101.18 in the prior session, also a 1-1/2-week top.
3:10 pm International markets: Shares advanced cautiously on Monday as investors braced for a possible escalation in Ukraine's civil conflict after anti-Kiev rebels declared victory in a referendum on self-rule.
Hopes of capital market reform boosted Chinese shares while Indian shares surged to a record high on expectations that a more business-friendly coalition will win a general election there. Exit polls are due later in the day with results of the five-week-long poll expected on Friday.
European stock markets got the week off to solid start, edging up in line with Asia early on, while the euro and euro zone government bond yields were pinned down by the European Central Bank's signal that it is likely to cut rates next month.
The market hits record highs ahead of exit polls this evening. The Sensex is up 565.42 points or 2.46 percent at 23559.65, and the Nifty gains 154.30 points or 2.25 percent at 7013.10, largely led by foreign investors' buying. About 1347 shares have advanced, 1432 shares declined, and 160 shares are unchanged.
The Bank Nifty topped 14,000 level for the first time ever. The rupee also gains, trading below 60, highest level in nine months, on support from the strength in equity markets.
A bullish Samir Arora says market has still not factored in an NDA win and India could be at the start of a bull run.
Voting is on in the final lap of the 9-phase elections. 41 seats across Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar are voting today-- including battleground Varanasi -- where it is a straight fight between BJP's Prime Ministerial Candidate Narendra Modi, Aap Chief Arvind Kejriwal and Congress' Ajay Rai.
02:50pm Breadth of market neutral
The breadth of the market was neutral at 1:1 with 1357 stocks advancing and 1407 stocks declining on the BSE.
02:45pm Stocks above 200 DMA
Midcap stocks like Jayshree Tea, Nitesh Estates, Peninsula Land, Jaiprakash Power,
Mahindra Holidays and Shiv Vani Oil have seen positive breakout and are now trading above their 200 day moving averages.
02:40pm Low Price High Volume
Stocks that are trading below Rs 20 like Unitech, SpiceJet, Suzlon, Jaipraksh Power, GVK Power, IVRCL, MTNL and Lanco Infra have seen huge jump in volumes along with substantial gains.
02:30pm Market will correct if NDA gets 220 seats: UR Bhat
UR Bhat of Dalton Capital says market may see a sharp correction if NDA gets 220 seats. "This will create government uncertainty," he added.
02:20pm Nifty Options: Huge jump in open interest
Nifty 7500 call adds 12.2 lakh shares in open interest. The premium was up 23 percent at Rs 89. Nifty 8000 call adds 11 lakh shares in open interest. The premium was up 46 percent at Rs 27.
02:10pm Midcaps shine
Midcap stocks like Gujarat Pipavav, IRB Infra, IL&FS Transportation, Torrent Power, Ashok Leyland and Jubilant Foodworks were up in the range of 5 to 15 percent. Around 246 stocks on BSE were locked at upper circuit.
02:00pm The benchmark index Nifty touched a new high of 7000 mark for the first time ahead of the exit polls. The Nifty has gained close to 300 points since Thursday, over 4 percent in anticipation of NDA forming a stable government with majority.
The Sensex was up 459.29 points or 2.00 percent at 23453.52, and the Nifty was up 134.30 points or 1.96 percent at 6993.10. About 1333 shares advanced, 1370 shares declined, and 146 shares were unchanged.
HDFC Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex with gains of 4.17 percent followed by Coal India (up 4.03 percent), ITC (up 3.69 percent), GAIL (up 3.44 percent) and Hero Motocorp (up 3.40 percent).
United Spirits was the top loser with loss of 2.55 percent. Sun Pharma (down 1.77 percent), Cipla (down 1.35 percent), Jindal Steel (down 1.08 percent) and Hindalco (down 1.01 percent) were other big losers.
1:57 pm FII view: Macquarie says markets are pricing in the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party winning 230 seats in the ongoing elections, calling that its "base case" as well. Macquarie estimates a number around that range could spark gains of 5-10 percent over one month in Indian shares, while a number above 240 seats would spark 15-20 percent gains.
By contrast, should BJP and allies clinch less than 200 seats, Macquarie says markets could fall 15-20 percent over the next month. BJP and its allies would need 273 seats to clinch a majority, although analysts say a number near it would comfort markets and raise the prospect of a more stable coalition.
Macquarie says the drivers of a rally after positive elections results could continue to be cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials and infrastructure.
Its top-five recommended cyclical stocks to buy for election results include Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Adani Port and Special Economic Zone and IRB Infrastructure Developers.
1:52 pm Market alert: Nifty hits 7000. ITC and HDFC Bank are top contributors to Nifty gain. HDFC Bank contributes over 150 points to Bank Nifty gain. 42 Nifty and 25 Sensex stocks are in the green. Coal India, UltraTech are top Nifty gainers, up over 4 percent.
HDFC Bank contributes over 150 points to Bank Nifty gain. 42 Nifty and 25 Sensex stocks are in the green. Coal India, UltraTech are top Nifty gainers, up over 4 percent.
1:50 pm Market outlook: Jitendra Sriram, MD and Head of Research, HSBC India is advising caution to investors ahead of the election results on May 16. He says the likelihood of primary articles inflation coming off remains bleak. The market is favour of staples, defensives and healthcare right, he says. However, he says there is more money to be made in high betas compared to defensives. He is also positive on the energy sector for FY15. He believes the new government will have to reduce diesel under-recovery.
He is positive on industrial space with L&T as his top pick. Also, he is positive on materials space with Hindalco and Sesa Sterlite as his top bets.
1:40 pm Laggard: Shares of Chambal Fertilisers slipped around 4 percent intraday as its March quarter earnings were disappointing. Its net profit fell over 75 percent to Rs 5.62 crore for fourth quarter ended on March 31, due to lower income.
Total income during January-March quarter of year 2013-14 decreased to Rs 1,442.10 crore from Rs 1,544.17 crore in same period in 2012-13, the company said in a BSE filing. For entire fiscal 2013-14, company reported marginal decline in net profit to Rs 303.07 crore from Rs 305.61 crore in the previous year.
1:30 pm Market outlook: According to Samir Arora of Helios Capital, this is just the start of a much bigger run, albeit if the elections results come in on expected lines.
He says emerging market investors have been caught on the back foot and are now frantically making their way to India. He gives an example of an erstwhile bearish Morgan Stanley, which in its report on Indian PSUs, has suggested a greater upside if the NDA manages 260 seats or more.
''If that is the kind of hype that people want to build in, you can imagine how far it will go if things turn out right, which is as good a probability as things going bad. But everybody is focusing on what will happen if it doesn't work out,'' he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview.
On the flipside, he says, if the NDA does not manage to get a majority and a third front, backed by the Congress, which is his worst-case scenario for the market, all hell is likely to break loose. He sees a 15-20 percent drop in the market in such a case.
1:20 pm Buzzing: Shares of Torrent Pharma hit record high at Rs 688.70, up over 10 percent intraday riding high on its strong March quarter earnings. Backed by robust revenue growth, the Ahmedabad-based company reported 120 percent jump in net profit for the quarter ended March 31 to Rs 244 crore on a yearly basis.
The company's revenue rose 41 percent during the January-March quarter to Rs 1,225 crore from Rs 871 crore in the same quarter of previous year.
The race to scale 7000 by Nifty continues as banking and oil stocks push harder. The Nifty is up 116.50 points or 1.70 percent at 6975.30 while the Sensex is up 415.95 points or 1.81 percent at 23410.18. About 1343 shares have advanced, 1243 shares declined, and 138 shares are unchanged.
It was a record high levels for Nifty at 6988.25 and Sensex at 23,453. HDFC Bank contributes over 150 points to Bank Nifty gain. HDFC Bank, RIL, ITC are top contributors to Nifty gain. 6 o out of 12 Bank Nifty stocks are trading at 52-week high while 11 of 30 Sensex stocks are at 52-week high and 12 Of 50 Nifty Stocks trading at 52-week high.
However, pharma stocks are under pressure. Cipla and Sun Pharma are down 2 percent each while IT stocks are also weak as rupee is above 60/USD.
NSE's volatility index, or India VIX, hits its highest level since March 11, 2009, and is headed for a fourth consecutive session of gains ahead of exit poll results later in the day.
India VIX measures the cost of protection via options and is seen by some investors as a "fear" gauge. The volatility index is up 3.6 percent, adding to Tuesday's surge of 9.9 percent., just as the Sensex and Nifty surge to record highs.
Japanese stocks slipped as worries about the Ukraine crisis curbed investors' appetite for risk, although companies that have issued upbeat earnings forecasts, such as Olympus Corp, attracted buying.
The benchmark Nikkei stock average ended 0.4 percent lower at 14,149.52.
12:50pm Market Outlook:
Noriko Kuroki, client portfolio manager-emerging markets equity at JPMorgan Asset Management continues to see good value in Indian equities. However, she advises against adding positions aggressively at this juncture. She says investors should rather watch the election outcome as betting on it could prove to be futile. Read more
12:40pm Big Winners
Midcap stocks like Torrent cables (up 40 percent), Atul (up 35 percent), Simplex Projects (up 33 percent), Bajaj Steel (up 32 percent) and IRB Infra (up 31 percent) have gained over 30 percent in last seven trading sessions.
12:30pm Global Market Check
Asian markets were trading firm with Shanghai and Hang Seng gaining close to 2 percent each on Monday. European markets opened on a flat note with DAX and FTSE up marginally in green. CAC was down 0.25 percent. Dow futures was up 23 points at 16550.
12:20pm Reliance Industries hits 3 yr-high; over Rs 1000 mark
Shares of Reliance Industries hit three-year high, at Rs 1048 per share, up over 5 percent intraday on Monday. The stock is over Rs 1,000 per share for first time since April 2011.
Reliance Industries, along with BP and Niko, have sent an arbitration notice to the government seeking higher gas prices under the 'Domestic Natural Gas Pricing Guideline 2014' notified in January this year. Read more
12:10pm Sectoral Check
Bank Nifty was star performer amongst sectoral indices with gains of clsoe to 2.5 percent. Heavy buying was also seen in realty, capital goods, power, oil&gas, metal and auto stocks. Defensives like IT and pharma stocks witnessed some selling on account of sector rotation by traders and investors from defensives to cyclicals and rate sensitives.
12:00pm The benchmark indices Nifty, Sensex scaled to new life-high prices ahead of the exit polls which will be announced later in the evening today. It seems that the market is factoring NDA victory with majority of seats and lower probability of alliance with any other party.
The Nifty touched a fresh high of 6988.25, within striking distance of the psychological level of 7000. Bank Nifty too surpassed levels of 14000 in the morning on heavy buying in private sector banks like HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank.
The broader markets however underperformed largecaps with gains of less than a percent compared to Nifty's gain of 1.8 percent.
The Sensex was up 403.06 points or 1.75 percent at 23397.29, and the Nifty was up 113.20 points or 1.65 percent at 6972.00. The breadth of the market was not so encouraging. About 1319 shares advanced, 1125 shares declined, and 131 shares were unchanged.
HDFC Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex with gains of over 4 percent. BHEL (up 3.43 percent), SBI (up 3.37 percent), Coal India (up 2.98 percent) and HDFC (up 2.96 percent) also accompanied HDFC Bank on the upside.
11:50 am Opinion: Gautam Shah of JM Financial believes that market continues to exhibit perfect bull market trends and it is likely to continue upward momentum, showing a significant upside especially in medium-term. He advises investors to maintain target of 7400-7500 on Nifty. Bank Nifty could test 14,500 in the next 5-7 trading sessions with an eventual target seen at 15,200 levels.
He adds that risk-reward is still in favour of going long for investors. Investors should see more constructive view for market and play on the upside moves to be seen post poll outcome. However, a disappointment in the election result will call for a 5 percent fall in market, he says in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
11:40 am Brokerage views: Brokerage firms CLSA and Antique have retained their 'sell' ratings on the United Spirits even as a the Diageo controlled firm's balance sheet is set to improve following the impending sale of Whyte & Mackay to Emperador Inc. United Spirits has said it will sell W&M to Emperador Inc for 430 million pounds, below what the market was expecting.
"The open offer price (Rs 3030 per share) provides an attractive exit option for United Spirits' current shareholders. Our base case scenario-entailing 30 percent volume growth in prestige and above category and 5 percent volume drop in regular and below category-provides a fair value of Rs 2,203 per share. Our best case scenario-entailing 40 percent volume growth in prestige and above category and 15 percent drop in regular and below category-provides a fair value of Rs 3,016 per share.
11:30 am Market check: It is scorching hot on Dalal Street as stocks celebrate summer with hefty gains. The Sensex is up 448.34 points or 1.95 percent at 23442.57, and the Nifty up 126.75 points or 1.85 percent at 6985.55. About 1310 shares have advanced, 1030 shares declined, and 130 shares are unchanged.
11:20 am Market outlook: We are entering a phase where high growth rate for the country is becoming visible, feels Sunil Singhania, CIO-equities, Reliance Mutual Fund. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Singhania says the macro environment has improved significantly, and a continuation of this drive should drive market higher. For now, the market appears to be fairly valued as expectations seem to be benign, he said.
He sees equities returning at least 15 percent on improving economic and corporate fundamentals. Singhania is optimistic that a strong government is likely to take charge, and he sees corporate sector earnings growth doubling over the next three years. Singhania's fund is bullish on the banking sector, with a clear preference for private sector banks. At the same time, Singhania says his fund is not significantly overweight on the sector even after increasing weightage recently.
The market rally is not over yet as investors stare at exit poll of the Lok Sabha elections with a hope of a NDA-led government. The Sensex is up 338.05 points or 1.47 percent at 23332.28, and the Nifty up 94.35 points or 1.38 percent at 6953.15.
About 1260 shares have advanced, 923 shares declined, and 117 shares are unchanged. Coal India, SBI, Reliance, HDFC Bank and GAIL are top gainers in the Sensex. Among the losers are IT and pharma stocks including TCS, Wipro, Sun Pharma and Cipla.
41 constituencies in three states are voting in the last phase of the 16th Lok Sabha elections.
The big battle is being fought in Varanasi with Congress's Ajay Rai pitted against Bharatiya Janata Party prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi and Aam Aadmi Party national convenor Arvind Kejriwal. The fate of Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav (Azamgarh) will also be sealed.
Meanwhile, rupee gains trading above 60 the highest level since April, on support from the strength in equity markets. Gilts are trading higher on the back of a stronger rupee, positive expectations from the exit poll this evening and comfortable liquidity this week.
The euro is trading close to its one-month low ahead of speeches from ECB officials today. Commodities see divergent moves with gold falling to a one week low and crude rising with Brent above USD 108 per barrel.
10:50am Market Outlook: Market fairly valued, room for upside on good macro: Rel MF
Sunil Singhania of Reliance Mutual Fund is optimistic that a strong government is likely to take charge, and he sees corporate sector earnings growth doubling over the next three years. Read more
10:40am F&O Check: Nifty Out of the Money calls active
Nifty OTM calls of strike prices 7500, 7800 and 8000 have seen huge trading interest with surge in open interest and premium in todays' trade. Interestingly, Nifty 8000 call is now trading at Rs 25, which is 1000 points away from current Nifty levels. India VIX is now trading around 37 mark.
10:30am Midcaps, Adani stocks shine
Stocks like IRB Infra (up 8.50 percent), Gujarat Gas (up 6.72 percent), Torrent Power (up 6.14 percent), Vaibhav Global (up 5.51 percent) and Punj Lloyd (up 5.32 percent) were top gainers in the midcap space. Adani group stocks like Adani Ports (up 9 percent), Adani Power (up 7 percent) and Adani Enterprises (up 2 percent) also minted money for traders.
10:20am Rupee at 9-month high
The Indian Rupee hits a fresh 9-month high in the first hour of trade on hopes of stable government and high dollar inflows by FIIs in equity market. The rupee touched an intraday high of 59.5150, appreciated 53 paise from its previous close.
10:10am Karvy's option strategy to play poll results: Nifty ladder
Brokerage house Karvy sees benchmark indices rallying as much as 5 percent on Tuesday if the exit polls predict the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance getting 260 seats or more. At the same time, indices could fall as much if the exit polls suggest the NDA struggling to come within the simple majority mark. The brokerage has suggested an option strategy to ride the big swings on Tuesday and again on Friday when the election results are announced. Read more for strategy
10:00am The benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit life-high prices in early morning trade on renewed optimism of stable government formation by a single party. Bank Nifty was the star performer of the day with gains of close to 2 percent. The index surged nearly 1000 points since Thursday's close and touched a life-time high of 14000 mark.
Heavyweight stocks like Axis Bank, Bank of Baroda, BPCL, Coal India, HDFC Bank, HPCL, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, JSW Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, M&M, Maruti Suzuki, ONGC, Reliance Infra and Reliance Industries were trading at year/multi-year high levels.
The Sensex was up 296.82 points or 1.29 percent at 23291.05, and the Nifty was up 84.60 points or 1.23 percent at 6943.40. About 1105 shares advanced, 662 shares declined, and 94 shares were unchanged.
Top gainers in the Nifty were Reliance (up 3.87 percent), GAIL (up 3.21 percent), SBI (up 3.07 percent), IndusInd Bank (up 2.82 percent) and Axis Bank (up 2.81 percent).
IT and pharma stocks continue to see profit booking as traders and investors shift position from defensives to cyclicals and rate sensitive stocks.
10:00 am Market cap: The market valuation of top seven Sensex firms advanced by Rs 84,494.52 crore last week, in line with an overall strong stock market with RIL and ONGC emerging as the biggest gainers. The list of gainers include ITC , CIL , HDFC Bank , SBI and ICICI Bank , while those who suffered losses in their market capitalisation (m-cap) were TCS , Infosys and HDFC .
The m-cap of RIL surged Rs 22,319.67 crore to Rs 3,22,369.67 crore, becoming the top gainer among the country's 10 most valued firms.
9:50 am KG D6 oil block: With the Oil Ministry indicating that a new gas price may be delayed by a quarter, Reliance Industries has said the postponement may stall USD 4 billion of investment in KG-D6 block's second-biggest gas field.
RIL and partner BP plc of UK had completed front-end engineering design (FEED) for development of D-34 or R-Series gas field in the Krishna Godavari basin KG-D6 block in the Bay of Bengal. They had floated tenders for sourcing equipment and were on the verge of awarding contracts for long-lead items so as to begin work in the five-month weather window that will become available from November and deliver gas in 2017.
9:40 am Market internals: Market extends gains; Nifty, Sensex, Bank Nifty at life highs. The Nifty and Sensex gain over 4 percent in last two trading sessions. Bank Nifty is above 14,000, gaining 8 percent in last two trading sessions. ICICI Bank is above Rs 1,400 per share for first time since January 2008. Reliance Industries over Rs 1,000 per share for first time since April 2011. Reliance Industries is top contributor to Nifty gain.
9:30 am Macro economy poll: The IIP and CPI data that is expected today may not be much in focus because all eyes will be on the exit poll results. However, since the April consumer price index (CPI) is going to be more important than the March Index of Industrial Production (IIP), there is an expectation of an uptick to around 8.5 percent for the month versus 8.31 percent on a month-on-month basis. Since January this year the CIP has been ranging above the 8 percent mark.
According to CNBC-TV18 poll, the range could be anywhere between 8.3 and 8.7 percent but one needs to watch out for the core CPI which has been sub 8 percent since February 2014. The uptick expected in the CPI (M-o-M) is on the expectation of food inflation coming around 9.5 percent versus 9.1 percent on M-o-M basis.
9:20 am Last polling: Forty-one constituencies go to polls today in the final phase of the 9 phase Lok Sabha elections including battleground Varanasi, more than 16 lakh voters here will decide the fate of Narenda Modi and Arvind Kejriwal. All eyes will be on the exit polls expected at 6:30 pm this evening.
After a flat opening, the market surged within a minute. The Sensex is up 224.46 points at 23218.69, and the Nifty gains 60.05 points at 6918.85. About 530 shares have advanced, 139 shares declined, and 25 shares are unchanged.
Bank Nifty at record high, touching 14000. Oil stocks gain. ONGC is up 3 percent while Axis Bank, ICICI and SBI gain 2 percent each. Cipla, Sun Pharma, TCS and Bajaj Auto are major laggards in morning trade.
The Indian rupee opened higher by 6 paise at 59.98 per dollar versus 60.04 Friday.The euro started the week on a steadier footing after two straight sessions of steep losses, but should stay under pressure amid the persistent threat of policy action from the European Central Bank.
Agam Gupta of Standard Chartered said that, "Expect rupee in a range of 59.90-60.20/dollar ahead of the exit polls today. Nationalised banks will continue to buy dollars and exporters will sell on upticks."
In global news, US stocks turned higher on Friday, with the Dow knocking out an all-time finish, as consumer discretionary and health care companies led late-session gains and momentum stocks bounced back after a three-day slide.
In commodities, US Crude was rangebound as the market balanced support from a draw down in domestic crude stockpiles against technical sell points that have kept oil from rallying higher, while Brent was lower as traders awaited developments in the Ukraine crisis.
From precious metals space, gold settled slightly lower, logging its second straight weekly loss as the dollar took support from euro weakness and traders awaited further news on Ukraine.