RBI survey puts India's 2010-11 GDP growth at 8.4 per cent

The Indian economy is expected to grow at 8.4 per cent in the current fiscal (2010-11) and 8.5 per cent in the next fiscal (2011-12) as per the revised survey of professional forecasters released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

The survey has revised India's real GDP growth from the 8.2 per cent projected in the last survey, on the basis of increased private final consumption expenditure growth, stronger industrial activity in the first quarter and further contribution of services in the subsequent quarters, RBI said.

For the year 2011-12, the real GDP growth rate is forecast to be 8.5 per cent.

For the year 2010-11, the forecasters have assigned highest probability of 38.7 per cent to 8.0-8.4 per cent growth range for GDP. For 2011-12, they have assigned maximum probability of 28.6 per cent to 8.5-8.9 per cent growth range for GDP.

The forecast for agriculture, industry and services for the year 2011-12 are 3.0 per cent, 9.1 per cent and 9.5 per cent, respectively.
 
For the year 2010-11, the forecast for agriculture has been revised marginally upwards from 4.0 per cent to 4.1 per cent.

For the industry sector, the growth rate forecast is 9.0 per cent, same as in the last survey, whereas for service sector, the forecasts have been revised marginally upwards from 9.0 per cent to 9.1 per cent.