Over 7 % growth next fiscal unlikely, Moody’s tells India

India's growth will bounce back to 7 % next fiscal Moody's Analytics said today sounding a buoyant note on the Indian economy, and said that the recession will peak out in the last quarter of the 2013-14 fiscal, and GDP growth will then bounce back to around 7 per cent.

 ''Our forecast from 2014 onwards is for economic growth of around 7 per cent which is India's new rate of trend growth. This is well short of the rate near 10 per cent from a couple of years back,'' the advisory on India said.

India is likely to growth at 6.2 per cent in 2013 against 5.1 per cent projected growth in 2012, the agency said.

This is in some contrast to gloomy forecasts last month by parent body Moody's Investor Services, which has cautioned that India could face a downgrade in its sovereign rating.

Moody's Analytics however warned that taking shortcuts to boost immediate revenues without corresponding improvements in infrastructure would be counter-productive; and projections of growth at above 7 per cent were unrealistic.

It said that efforts to push the economy back up towards double-digit levels would fail without initiatives to fix structural problems in the economy.