IMF revises India’s 2013 economic growth to 4.6%

22 Jan 2014


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Indian economy to have grown at 4.6 per cent in 2013 and has projected an improvement in the expansion rate to 5.5 per cent in 2014 and further to 7.0 per cent in 2015.

At market prices (basic prices plus taxes but less subsidies), India's growth rate in 2013 is likely to be 4.4 per cent, IMF said in its World Economic Outlook update.

Its earlier estimate in October was 3.8 per cent.

IMF projected a growth rate of 5.4 and 6.4 per cent respectively, at market prices, for the following years.

"Growth in India picked up after a favourable monsoon season and a higher export growth and is expected to firm further on strong structural policies supporting investment," IMF said in its report.

The growth rate in 2015, at factor prices (excluding taxes), is likely to be 6.4 per cent, the report said.

India's economy slowed to a decade low of 5 per cent in the last fiscal due to global slowdown and domestic factors, like high interest rates.

Growth rate during April-September of 2013-14 slipped to 4.6 per cent from 5.3 per cent in the same period last fiscal.

IMF expects overall, growth in emerging market and developing economies to increase to 5.1 per cent in 2014 and to 5.4 per cent in 2015.

However, it expects China's growth, which rebounded strongly in the second half of 2013, due largely to an acceleration in investment, to moderate slightly to around 7.5 per cent in 2014–15.

This surge, according to IMF was temporary, in part because of policy measures aimed at slowing credit growth and raising the cost of capital.

The report said global activity strengthened during the second half of 2013 and is expected to improve further in 2014-15, largely on account of recovery in the advanced economies.

''Activity is expected to improve further in 2014–15, largely on account of recovery in the advanced economies. Global growth is now projected to be slightly higher in 2014, at around 3.7 per cent, rising to 3.9 per cent in 2015, a broadly unchanged outlook from the October 2013 WEO.''

But downward revisions to growth forecasts in some economies highlight continued fragilities, and downside risks remain, mainly due to large output gaps and the accommodative monetary policy stance amidst continuing fiscal consolidation, IMF said.

In many emerging market and developing economies, stronger external demand from advanced economies will lift growth, although domestic weaknesses remain a concern.

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