Intel warns of AI chip supply crunch; shares slide 13% on weak Q1 2026 forecast

Intel Corp shares fell about 13% in after-hours trading on Thursday (January 22, 2026) after the company forecast first-quarter revenue and profit below Wall Street expectations and warned it cannot fully meet demand for server processors used in AI data centers.

The outlook tempered optimism after Intel reported results for the final quarter of 2025 that beat expectations, with investors instead focusing on the near-term profit hit from capacity constraints and higher costs linked to manufacturing transitions.

Q1 2026 guidance signals supply constraints

Intel said it expects Q1 2026 revenue of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion, below analysts’ average estimate of $12.51 billion, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.

The company also forecast adjusted earnings per share at break-even (0 cents), missing the 5 cents per share profit expected by analysts.

AI data center demand is strong — but Intel can’t ship enough

Intel executives said the company was caught off guard by a surge in demand for server CPUs used in AI clusters, where traditional processors are paired alongside AI accelerators.

Despite running its fabrication plants at high utilization, Intel said it lacks sufficient supply to fully meet orders in the near term.

“In the short term, I’m disappointed that we are not able to fully meet the demand in our markets,” CEO Lip-Bu Tan told analysts on a conference call.

Finance chief David Zinsner said demand surprised even cloud providers, noting customers had to upgrade older chip fleets after an “erosion in networking performance.”

Panther Lake begins shipping as Intel ramps 18A

Intel said it has begun shipping its Panther Lake PC chips, the first product manufactured on its key 18A process technology, which is central to the company’s plan to regain manufacturing competitiveness.

Reuters noted that early production yields on 18A were initially low, though Intel said yields are improving month by month. Tan told analysts that 18A yields are in line with internal plans but remain below what he wants.

Foundry roadmap: 14A customers evaluating next steps

Intel also provided an update on its future foundry roadmap, saying it has held back major investment in the next-generation 14A process while waiting for a large external customer.

Tan said two customers are currently evaluating the technical details of 14A and that Intel expects to know by the second half of 2026 whether external customers intend to proceed toward test chips.

Why This Matters

Intel’s update highlights a major trend for 2026: the AI boom is turning into a capacity race.

Even as AI-related demand accelerates, Intel is warning that supply limitations and ramp-up costs may delay the near-term financial payoff. For investors, the focus is shifting from “Is there demand?” to “Can Intel deliver enough of the right silicon fast enough?”

Summary

• Shares fell ~13% after hours after Intel issued a weaker-than-expected Q1 outlook.
• Intel forecast Q1 revenue of $11.7B–$12.7B, below the $12.51B consensus.
• Intel expects adjusted EPS to break even, versus $0.05 expected by analysts.
• Intel said it is struggling to meet AI data center CPU demand despite running factories at high utilization.
• Intel has started shipping Panther Lake on 18A and said yields are improving monthly.

FAQs

Q1: Why did Intel stock fall even though Q4 results were strong?

Because Intel’s Q1 2026 guidance missed estimates, and the company warned supply constraints are limiting its ability to meet demand for AI data center server processors.

Q2: What is Intel’s Q1 2026 guidance?

Intel forecast:

• Revenue: $11.7B to $12.7B
• Adjusted EPS: 0 cents (break-even)

Q3: What did Intel say about the AI data center market?

Intel said demand for server CPUs used in AI clusters surged unexpectedly and the company cannot fully meet orders in the short term, even with factories operating at high utilization.

Q4: What is Panther Lake and why is it important?

Panther Lake is Intel’s next PC chip line and the first product made on Intel’s 18A process technology. Intel said yields are improving, though Reuters noted early yields were initially low.

Q5: What is Intel’s update on 14A?

Intel said it is waiting for a major customer decision before committing major investment to 14A, and that two customers are currently evaluating technical details with potential next steps expected in H2 2026.