World steel production will decline in 1999

The Brussels-based International Iron & Steel Institute has forecast a 2.7 per cent drop in global steel production in 1999. That represents a 19 million tonne decline in volume terms. One reason for the decline will be bloated inventories caused by excess production in 1998.

Region-wise, lower steel consumption in the US, European Union, Latin America and Africa will be mainly responsible for the decline. According to IISI general secretary Ian Christmas, who presented the outlook paper to the institute's board in Venice on 19 April 1999, American consumption is expected to decline 8 million tonnes to 110.8 million tonnes in 1999.

Demand is Brazil will reduce by 3 per cent to 14.1 million tonnes, in Argentina by 4.8 per cent, and in Africa by 1.4 million tonnes, or 9.1 per cent. Egypt, with a 20 per cent reduction, is expected to be main contributor to the fall in Africa.

European Union consumption in 1999 is expected to be 130.2 million tonnes, or 5.9 million tonnes down from the previous year's level.

Demand for steel in the rest of Europe is projected to rise by 1.4 million tonnes to 36.6 million tonnes. Turkey is expected to be an important driver of demand this year. The institute expects the CIS countries and Korea to maintain or improve upon 1998 consumption levels.

The Korean consumption will rise after having plummeted to 25 million tonnes in 1998 from 38 million tonnes earlier. The IISI expects Korean demand to rise 12 per cent to 28.1 per cent.

Expect a glut
(in million tonnes)

IISI steel consumption estimates