The death trap

It has always been labeled the "lifeline of the city". What is being referred to, is the ubiquitous yellow carriage suburban railway system of the city of Mumbai, the commercial capital of the country.

The system is huge by any standard and carries 50 per cent of the entire country's railway passengers! Loved and adored by everyone not too long ago, it has come to be hated by most, though they still use it in the absence of a better alternative.

It has acquired a new label, "deathline of the city" and has miserably failed to retain its place of pride in the list of efficient and passenger friendly services for which this city has been famous. What went wrong?

The foremost reason for this change is the fact that its carrying capacity has lagged massively behind demand from the travelling public. As a result of this the crush load factor at peak hours, according to a very senior railway official who does not want to be quoted, stands at about 2.5 (Which means that if the official carrying capacity of a carriage is 100, the actual number of passengers being carried is 250).

Surprisingly, the system has not yet buckled under. It continues to maintain discipline and regularity, though cracks have certainly begun to develop. The officers and staff of Western Railway, responsible for managing this large and mammoth system, have begun to feel the pressure of failed expectations. Speaking to domain-B Mr. VD Gupta, general manager Western Railway said, "Despite all restrictions we are still running the suburban system and get brickbats. My men work in the day managing the system and do maintenance work in the night. There is a crisis. The railway system and the staff are working under tremendous pressure. I have not seen such pressure anywhere else."

The death trap

30 September 2000. It was normal routine as Mr. Praveen Mittal stepped out of his residence to travel to Andheri {a suburb of Mumbai} where his office is situated. A piercing wail from a neighbouring apartment, that shattered the quiet surrounding, forced him to go back. On arriving at the said apartment he, and others who had joined in by then, was in for a rude shock! A telephone call from Western Railway authorities had just informed the lady of the house, that her husband, the lone earning member of the family, had just died after falling off a suburban train, not able to hold on to the coach in the morning rush hours of the traffic. Mr. Mittal and others did not know how to console the lady. As they looked at each other they knew that a similar fate could be waiting each of them, given the horrible travelling conditions prevailing in the suburban trains.

Says Ms. Lata Rai, a resident of Mira Road, an extended suburb in the northernmost tip and outside city limits, who has to travel more than 60 kms. by the suburban system, "The system has gone from bad to worse. Despite the fact that none of us are required to do so, my husband, son and I, are all out of our house by 7.15 a.m., just so that we can catch enough place in the train to breath easily. Ms. Rai is of the opinion that the suburban railway system is fast deteriorating and if nothing is done to improve capacity, it will become uncommutable.

Long ignored by the railway ministry and bureaucrats alike, the Mumbai suburban railway system, which was once "the best in the country and the world", has almost become a death knell for commuters.

The railways ministry has been, all along, giving the general impression that the fares paid by commuters were on the lower side in comparison to the facilities provided by the system. On this basis, repeated attempts have been made in the past to raise the fares substantially. However, the quality of service has largely remained ignored. Demand for the system has grown substantially but the supply side, which essentially is carrying capacity, has largely remained ignored.

The mismatch -- official version

According to the public relations office of the Western Railway, the number of passengers carried per day by the suburban system on its routes has increased by 40 per cent -- from 1.99 million to 2.80 million during the period 90-91 to 99-00. In contrast, the number of coaches in the same period grew only at 10.97 per cent, rising from 866 per day to 961 per day.

However, there is a catch here! Western Railway also runs a few 12-car coaches, the official carrying capacity of which is 2,500 passengers, 33.55 per cent more than the capacity of the 9-car coach it normally runs. During the period under review the number of 12-car coaches rose 1,816 per cent, from 12 per day in 1990-91 to 230 per day in 1999-2000. At the same time the number of 9-car coaches dropped 14.40 per cent, from 854 per day in 1990-91 to 731 per day in 1999-2000. Translated, the actual carrying capacity in 1990-91 stood at 1,628,688 passengers, which grew 19.33 per cent to 1,943,432 in 2000. The crush load factor rose from 1.22 in 1990-91 to 1.44 in 1999-2000.

Clearly, the railways have failed to correctly assess the growth in passenger traffic and as a result, their carrying capacity has lagged behind. In contrast, the additions effected in the previous decade between 1980 and 1990 were slightly better with the number of trains increasing by 21.12 per cent, from 715 to 866 out of which 12 were of 12 car coach variety.

If one accepts the popular opinion that the actual number of passengers carried far exceeds the figures provided by the public relations office of the Western Railway, then the crush load factor will look worse.

Conflicting figures

Let's consider another set of figures also provided by the railways, this time from a report called "Traffic Integration and Projections", prepared by chief administrative officer (Construction) of the Western Railways. According to this report, average number of passengers carried per day between 1993-94 and 1997-98 rose 13.80 per cent, from 2.572 million per day to 2.927 million per day. However, according to figures provided by the public relations office of the railways, in the period under reference, the rise in the number of passengers carried per day rose only 6.99 per cent -- from 2.43 million per day to 2.60 million per day. The second set portrays growth at just half the rate in comparison to the first. In real terms while the first portrays a growth rate of 3.5 per cent per annum, the second is substantially lower at about 1.70 per cent per annum and both are by the railways. Obviously there is no correlation between various departments monitoring traffic figures.

How will the traffic grow in future?

Here again there is abundant confusion and the railway authorities apparently are not clear about the growth rate. In response to a questionnaire from domain-b, all that the public relations office of the western railway said is, "The growth rate is 1.2 per cent for the number of passengers in the suburban section last year." What it means is that between 1998-99 and 1999-2000, the passenger traffic grew by 1.2 per cent. There was no mention of what, according to them, was the possible increase in passenger traffic in the years to come. Are we to assume that passenger traffic was expected to grow 1.2 per cent every year over the next ten to fifteen years?

Fortunately, some projections were available in the report mentioned above. According to the report, number of passengers projected to use the suburban system between Churchgate {at the southern most tip of the city} and Virar {at the northern-most tip, but within municipal limits, of the city}is expected to grow 2 per cent annually for the next sixteen years. Thus, it expects average number of passengers per day to rise to 3.34 million in 2005-06, 3.63 million in 2010-11 and 3.92 million in 2015-16 from 2.927 million in 1999-2000. This is despite the fact that according to its own figures shown above, the average growth between 1993-94 and 1997-98 was placed at 3.5 per cent.

The report says, " The above chart shows an increase of 3.5 per cent growth of suburban passenger/annum. However, looking to the limitation on availability of land in Mumbai area, only 2 per cent annual growth has been assumed for making projections up to 2015-16 as shown below". Ridiculous, is it not? Can any service be properly planned without proper estimates of requirements and that too in an as important a matter as public transport?

Growth estimates vary

According to Deepak J Gandhi of the suburban passenger association, there is a 4 per cent growth in passenger traffic every year. If one was to go by this growth rate, then projections made by railways go completely wrong. Naturally, the projected capacity additions will also be inaccurate.

What are the projected capacity additions?

No on is clear about this. The chief public relation officer, in a faxed reply to questions raised by domain-B said, " Railways have, besides introducing of 12-car rakes which increased capacity by 33 per cent, are trying to ease the congestion on the by increasing line capacity in the Borivali-Virar {two suburbs of Mumbai} section. Further, the railways are converting the DC traction into AC traction, which will enable railways to run trains with longer composition. Lastly, the railways have been pushing the ministry to corporatisation of the suburban services.

Will the passenger woes end?

It does not seem so imminent. Though the work of quadrupling lines between Borivali and Virar has begun, the entire project is expected to be completed only by June 2004, subject to availability of funds. However Mr. Gupta expects to complete the work by June 2003.

The DC-to-AC conversion project is proceeding as per plans and is expected to be completed only in the next two years. The entire project is estimated to cost about Rs 6,000 crore, out of which Rs 3,000 crore will come in the form of a World Bank loan and balance from internal accruals and from Maharashtra Government. Mr Gupta expects that once the entire project gets completed, the crush load factor will fall to one and a half times from the present two and a half times.

Will this actually happen? Only time will tell.