Adyen shares slide 15% as softer payment volumes temper revenue growth

Summary

Adyen reported solid second-half revenue growth but missed market expectations on transaction volumes, triggering a sharp share price decline of about 15%. While net revenue rose 21% year-on-year, softer payment activity and measured 2026 guidance raised concerns about momentum in the global digital payments sector.

Amsterdam, Feb 12 — Shares in Dutch payments firm Adyen fell about 15% after the company reported solid second-half revenue growth but missed market expectations on transaction volumes and issued measured guidance for 2026.

The reaction underscores heightened investor sensitivity to payment activity trends as the sector navigates moderating consumer spending in key markets and tougher year-on-year comparisons.

Volume miss weighs on sentiment

Adyen processed €745 billion in payments during the July–December period, representing a 19% increase from a year earlier. However, the figure fell short of analyst expectations of roughly €771 billion, according to consensus estimates.

While higher take rates and value-added services supported revenue growth, the shortfall in transaction volumes raised concerns about momentum in global digital payments — a key metric underpinning sector valuations.

Analysts said softer volume growth, combined with a cautious forward outlook, may make it difficult to shift investor sentiment in the near term.

Revenue growth remains solid

Despite the volume miss, Adyen reported net revenue of €1.27 billion, up 21% year-on-year on a constant currency basis in the second half of 2025.

The company continues to benefit from its diversified merchant base and expanding suite of services, which help sustain pricing power even as transaction growth moderates.

For 2026, Adyen guided for revenue growth of 20% to 22%, signalling confidence in continued expansion but falling short of expectations for a sharper acceleration in volumes.

The company also reiterated its longer-term profitability target, stating that it expects its core profit margin to exceed 55% by 2028, compared with 53% last year.

Unified commerce supports growth

One of Adyen’s fastest-growing segments remains unified commerce — integrating online and in-store payment processing for global merchants.

The company processed €173 billion in in-store transactions via physical payment terminals in the second half, up 26% year-on-year. Partnerships with major brands such as Starbucks and Uber have supported growth in omnichannel capabilities as retailers seek more integrated payment systems.

Sector implications

Adyen’s results reflect a broader shift in investor focus within the payments industry. With global e-commerce growth normalising and consumer demand uneven across regions, payment companies face greater scrutiny over transaction trends and margin sustainability.

Investors are increasingly distinguishing between firms that can expand services and maintain pricing power, and those reliant primarily on transaction volume growth.

For Adyen, the strategic emphasis remains on deepening merchant relationships, expanding in-store capabilities and improving profitability — even as headline payment volumes attract closer attention.

Why this matters

The payments sector was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the post-pandemic digital commerce surge. But as growth normalises, markets are recalibrating expectations.

Transaction volumes — once assumed to rise steadily alongside e-commerce — are now being examined more closely as indicators of consumer demand and economic health.

Adyen’s share price reaction suggests investors are prioritising sustainable volume growth and margin durability over headline revenue expansion. The episode may signal a broader repricing of payment stocks as the industry transitions from high-growth expansion to a more mature phase focused on efficiency and profitability.

FAQs

Q1: Why did Adyen’s shares fall despite revenue growth?

Investors focused on weaker-than-expected payment volumes and measured 2026 guidance, raising concerns about slowing growth momentum.

Q2: How much did Adyen’s revenue grow?

Net revenue increased 21% year-on-year on a constant currency basis to €1.27 billion in the second half of 2025.

Q3: What were the payment volume figures?

Adyen processed €745 billion in transactions, up 19% but below analyst expectations of around €771 billion.

Q4: What is unified commerce and why does it matter?

Unified commerce integrates online and in-store payments into a single platform, enabling merchants to manage data and customer experiences more effectively.

Q5: What is Adyen’s outlook for 2026?

The company expects revenue growth of 20% to 22% in 2026 and aims for a core profit margin above 55% by 2028.

Q6: What does this signal for the broader payments sector?

It suggests investors are focusing more on transaction growth quality and long-term profitability rather than rapid top-line expansion alone.