Survey reveals key IT usage trends in India

A survey by Gartner group''s Dataquest in September 1998 reveals certain interesting patterns in IT usage in India. The survey covered 800 organisations in ten industry groups (agriculture and mining, commercial services, finance and business services, IT supplier, Manufacturing, personal and other services, transport and storage, utilities and construction, wholesale and retail) and across six groups based on installed screens (less than 50, 50-100, 100-250, 250-500, 500-1000 and over 1000). The findings of the above study were:

Hardware
System architecture: The use of Microsoft Windows NT is expected to increase sharply over the next five years up to 2003. Win NT''s share of running systems is expected to rise from the current level of 10 per cent to 30 per cent by end-1999 and to nearly 33 per cent by 2003. Its rival Novell NetWare is seen to lose its pre-eminent share, currently over 40 per cent, and drop to about 23 per cent by 2003. Unix will more or less maintain its share. The ''hot & new'' Linux does not seem to evoke much response.

Server and host usage:File/print servers are out, and client servers (application servers) are in. File servers, which form about 35 per cent of current server usage, will be down to just 15 per cent by the year 2003. Client servers will grow from the current 35 per cent (of server usage) to about 45 per cent in 1999, but will actually fall to about 40 per cent in 2003. By this time, Intranet and web servers would begin to gain prominence and would together account for about 20 per cent by the year 2003, from a current level of about 5 per cent. Servers would increasingly be used for internet gateways, intranets and as web servers while the use of servers in traditional timesharing and batch processing roles will diminish by 2003, from a current level of 25 per cent to about 10 per cent.

PCs: Compaq, HCL and Wipro are the top three brands of installed PCs, in that order. Apple continues to go out of popularity in the brand line up and will remain so in spite of the recent launch of the iMac.

Software and services
DBMS applications: Oracle is expected to grow from nearly 23 per cent to about 31 per cent in 1999, and to nearly 50 per cent by 2003, as the major DBMS application. Its other rivals like Informix and Sybase just about maintain their tiny shares. While Microsoft''s Access barely holds its share, its other DBMS product, SQL/Server, grows significantly. Other DBMSs like IBM DB2/400 and mainframe versions do not show any positive growth.

PC operating systems: Whether Microsoft baiters like it or not, Windows NT and other Windows versions are going to be the ruling OS on PCs by 2003. Other operating systems like Apple Macintosh, IBM OS/2 and Unix do not figure as serious contenders.

It might be difficult to gauge the impact of Linux immediately, but as an acknowledged competitor of Microsoft, it is likely to figure prominently in the future. Clearly, all corporate applications are moving towards Windows 95, its successors and Windows NT, to complement the overall computing which itself is moving towards Windows NT. Significantly, the successors of Windows 98 are expected to merge with Windows NT in style and operation.

Software application sourcing: The trend is towards buying off-the-shelf software packages and software development by system integrator or application developer. The practice of in-house development has been on the decline over the years

Software application development: While in-house software development has been on the decline, the major development tools for software development have been those of an earlier generation, like FoxPro, 3GL and 4 GL. However, newer tools like MS Visual Basic, Oracle tools and Developer 2000 are also among the prominent ones. A significant minority of respondents still favour the ''evergreen'' Cobol. Internet tools have not yet come into prominence, but they are expected to be, in the near future.

Software replacement plans: About 50 per cent of the organisations surveyed have replaced, or are in the process of replacing, application software in areas like financials and HR/payroll, while another 20 per cent are expecting to do so in a span of a year.

But, for mission critical and organisation level applications, about 40 per cent have completed or are in the process of migrating to new applications. A significant 30 per cent are expected to join this group by next year. This indicates the ongoing trend of ERP implementation among major companies.

Networking
Network protocol: Coinciding with the growth of the Internet, IP and TCP/IP network protocols are expected to dominate the market (nearly 70 per cent by 2003). Other network protocols like IPX (from Novell), SNA, NetBIOS, DECNET and Apple Talk are expected to decline.

WAN traffic: Integrated service digital network (ISDN) is expected to be the major mode of connectivity in internetworking by 2003. The current favourite, dial-up networking, will diminish in this timeframe while modes like satellite and ATMs will also be among the prominent ones. Modes like frame relays, fibre optic cables will also begin to be used along with radio microwave links and X.25 links.

Internet/ Intranet implementation: About 50 per cent of the organisations surveyed have a presence on the web in the form of web sites/pages. About a third of the organisations have developed and implemented an Intranet. More and more are expected to add to this list while organisations are expected to get e-commerce enabled.