Indian economy seen growing at 5% in FY20
07 January 2020
The Indian economy is projected to grow at a slower pace of 5.0 per cent in the 2019-20 financial year, against the 6.8 per cent growth reported in the previous financial year (2018-19) as per the first advance estimates of national income, 2019-20, released by National Statistical Office (NSO).
Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in estimated to reach Rs1,47,79,000 crore, against the provisional GDP estimate of Rs1,40,78,000 crore for the year 2018-19, released on 31 May 2019.
Growth in real GDP during 2019-20 is estimated at 5.0 per cent compared to the growth rate of 6.8 per cent in 2018-19.
Gross value addition (GVA) in real basic prices is estimated to increase from Rs1,29,07,000 crore in 2018-19 to Rs1,35,40,000 crore in 2019-20. Estimated growth of real GVA in 2019-20 is 4.9 per cent against 6.6 per cent in 2018-19.
The decline in GDP numbers can be attributed to a deceleration in manufacturing activity, which is expected to be down at 2 per cent in 2019-20 against 6.2 per cent in the previous fiscal
Gross fixed capital formation is seen at 1 per cent against 10 per cent the year ago
India’s economy grew at a slow pace of 4.5 per cent in the second quarter of FY20, while the figure stood at 5 per cent for the first quarter of FY20.
GDP growth stood at 4.8 per cent for the first half of the current fiscal year. For 2018-19, the first advance estimates had pegged the GDP growth at 7.2 per cent, which was brought down to 7 per cent in the second advance estimates and was further pared down to 6.8 per cent.
The sectors which recorded growth rates of over 4.9 per cent include: electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services; trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting; financial, real estate and professional services; and public administration, defence and other services’ at 5.4 per cent, 5.9 per cent, 6.4 per cent, 9.1 per cent respectively.
Growth in the agriculture, forestry and fishing; mining and quarrying; and manufacturing and construction is estimated to be 2.8 per cent, 1.5 per cent, 2.0 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively.
Per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2019-20 is likely to attain a level of Rs96,563 compared to Rs92,565 for the year 2018-19. The growth rate in per capita Income is estimated at 4.3 per cent during 2019-20, as against 5.6 per cent in the previous year.
GDP at current prices is estimated to reach a level of Rs2,04,42,00-0 crore in 2019-20 against Rs1,90,10,000 crore in 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 7.5 per cent.
Nominal Net National Income (NNI), also known as National Income (at current prices) is estimated to be Rs1,81,10,000 crore during 2019-20, against Rs1,68,37,000 crore for the year 2018-19.
In terms of growth rates, national income regcorded a growth rate of 7.6 per cent in 2019-20 against the previous year’s growth rate of 11.3 per cent.
Per capita Net National Income during 2019-20 is estimated to be Rs1,35,050 showing a rise of 6.8 per cent compared to Rs1,26,406 during 2018-19 with the growth rate of 10 per cent.