India's share in the global economy is about 2.83 per cent, with its gross domestic product (GDP) estimated at $2. 095 trillion (at 2015 price of the dollar) against the world GDP of $74 trillion, according to the World Bank Group.
According to the World Bank Group, assuming a simple linear extrapolation of growth rates and assuming India's GDP grows at 8 per cent in US dollar terms, and assuming that France and the UK grow at 2.5 per cent in US dollar terms, India's contribution to the global economy may surpass that of France in 2018 and that of the United Kingdom in 2021.
World Bank has used the GDP at purchaser prices, which is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It has been calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.
The data used is in current US dollars, which has been converted from domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates. For a few countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect the rate effectively applied to actual foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor has been used by the World Bank Group.
However, the World Bank said these estimates are just extrapolations and not forecasts, Arjun Ram Meghwal, minister of state in the ministry of finance informed the Look Sabha in a written reply on Friday.
As per the latest figures published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the growth rate of GDP at constant market prices (real GDP) is estimated at 7.2 per cent, 7.9 per cent and 7.1 per cent respectively in 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17.
The Economic Survey 2016-17 projected that the real GDP growth in 2017-18 will be in the range of 6 per cent per cent to 7.5 per cent.
As per the quarterly estimate released by the CSO, the growth rate in the real for the third quarter (October-December quarter) of 2016-17 was 7.0 per cent. The growth of GDP in the third quarter of 2016-17 was estimated to have been boosted by a 6 per cent growth in the real GVA in agriculture and allied sectors, which is higher than the corresponding growth rates of 1.9 per cent and 3.8 per cent, respectively in the first and second quarters of the year.
The growth rate in the real GVA of manufacturing in the third quarter of 2016-17 was 8.3 per cent, as compared the corresponding growth rates of 9.0 per cent and 6.9 per cent respectively in the first and second quarters of the year.
As per the quarterly estimates brought out by the CSO, real GDP grew by 7.2 per cent and 7.4 per cent respectively in the first and second quarters of 2016-17. The real GDP growth was estimated to be 7.0 per cent in the third quarter of the year-the period during which the demonetisation of high denomination currencies occurred. On the basis of the estimates of national income for first three quarters of 2016-17 and the second advance estimates for 2016-17 by the CSO, the implied growth of real GDP for the fourth quarter would be robust at 7.0 per cent, the minister pointed out.