India's GDP grows at 7% in Q3, full year growth seen at 7.1%

28 February 2017

India's economy expanded by 7 per cent in the third quarter of the current financial year, belying fears of a retarding effect of the note ban that took away 85 per cent of the money in circulation in an overnight announcement on 8 November 2016.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) also retained the growth projection for the full 2016-17 fiscal at 7.1 per cent, as projected in the first advance estimate in January.

Simultaneously, the CSO also marginally revised upwards the GDP estimates for the first and the second quarters to 7.2 per cent and 7.4 per cent, respectively.

''Real GDP or gross domestic product at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of Rs12,165,000 crore, up 7 per cent compared with the first revised estimate of GDP for the year 2015-16 of Rs11,358,000 crore, released on 31 January 2017.

The growth in GDP during 2016-17 is estimated at 7.1 per cent, compared to the growth rate of 7.9 per cent in 2015-16.

Real gross value added (GVA) at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from Rs10,470,000 crore in 2015-16 to Rs11.168,000 crore in 2016-17. Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2016-17 is 6.7 per cent against 7.8 per cent in 2015-16.

The sectors which are likely to register growth rate of over 7.0 per cent are 'public administration, defence and other services', 'manufacturing' and 'trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting'.

Growth in the 'agriculture, forestry and fishing', 'mining and quarrying', 'electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services', 'construction' and 'financial, real estate and professional services' is estimated to be 4.4 per cent, 1.3 per cent, 6.6 per cent, 3.1 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively.

The 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' sector is likely to show a growth of 4.4 per cent in its GVA during 2016-17, as against the previous year's growth rate of 0.8 per cent. The GVA estimates of this sector have been compiled using the second advance estimates of production of food grains for 2016-17. 

The second advance estimates of National Income, 2016-17, revealed that the growth in the GVA from 'manufacturing' sector is estimated to be 7.7 per cent compared to 10.6 per cent in 2015-16.

Commenting on the data, Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said this year growth figures are on a high base of last fiscal and numbers "do not show much negative impact of demonetisation".

The per capita net national income (current price) during 2016-17 is estimated to be Rs1,03,818 showing a rise of 10.2 per cent compared to Rs94,178 during 2015-16 with the growth rate of 8.9 per cent.

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