India's GDP seen growing at 7.6% this fiscal

08 February 2016

India's gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices, or real GDP in the year 2015-16 is estimated to grow at 7.6 per cent compared to the growth of 7.2 per cent in 2014-15.

The first revised estimates show that real GDP of the country is likely to reach a level of Rs1,13,51,000 crore in 2015-16, against the first revised estimate of GDP for the year 2014-15 of Rs1,05,52,000 crore, released on 29 January 2016.

The projection by the Central Statistics Office theoretically makes the country the fastest growing major economy in the world, overtaking China (which grew at below 7 per cent in the comparable period). Economists, including Reserve Bank governor Raghuram Rajan, however, doubt the figures. 

Also, with GDP growth for the October-December quarter at 7.3 per cent, a tad lower than 7.4 per cent in the preceding quarter, it is highly unlikely that the economy ends the year with a growth rate of 7.7 per cent.

CSO estimated growth in gross value added (GVA), at constant basic (2011-12) prices, during 2015-16 at 7.6 per cent compared to the growth rate of 7.2 per cent in 2014-15.

Real GVA, ie, GVA at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from Rs97,27,000 crore in 2014-15 to Rs1,04,38,000 crore in 2015-16. Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2015-16 is 7.3 per cent against 7.1 per cent in 2014-15.

The sectors which are likely to register growth rate of over 7.0 per cent are Sectors such as 'financial, real estate and professional services', 'trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting', and manufacturing', are expected to record growth rates above 7 per cent.

Growth in 'agriculture, forestry and fishing', 'mining and quarrying', 'electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services', 'construction' and 'public administration, defence and other services' is estimated to be 1.1 per cent, 6.9 per cent, 5.9 per cent, 3.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent, respectively.

India's per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2015-16 is expected to grow at 6.2 per cent reaching levels around Rs77,431 in 2015-16 against Rs72,889 for the year 2014-15. Per capita income had grown at 5.8 per cent in the previous year.

The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 3.0 per cent, (-) 1.3 per cent, 4.4 per cent and (-) 3.0 per cent, respectively, during April-December  2015-16.

The consumer price index has shown a rise of 4.8 per cent during April-December 2015-16.

GDP at current prices in the year 2015-16 is likely to attain a level of Rs1,35,67,000 crore, against Rs1,24,88,000 crore in 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 8.6 per cent.

Nominal net national income (NNI), also known as national income (at current prices) is likely to reach Rs1,19,62,000 crore during 2015-16, against Rs1,10,08,000 crore for the year 2014-15. In terms of growth rates, national income recorded a growth rate of 8.7 per cent in 2015-16 against the previous year's growth rate of 10.8 per cent.

Per capita net national income during 2015-16 is estimated to be Rs93,231 showing a rise of 7.3 per cent compared to Rs86,879 during 2014-15 with the growth rate of 9.4 per cent.

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