Boeing downgrades global cargo traffic growth forecast, remains upbeat on freighter orders

Seattle-based Boeing Co has marginally downgraded its forecast for annual growth of global air cargo traffic. It said that growth will now average 5.8 per cent over the next 20 years, down a couple of ticks from the 6.1% average annual growth it had previously predicted. It has, nevertheless, projected robust growth for the worldwide freighter aircraft fleet through to 2027.

The new figures were released yesterday as part of a cargo addendum to the manufacturers overall market outlook.

According to the new projections, global freighter aircraft fleet will increase from the current1,948 units to 3,892 units by 2027. "This growth requires a total of 3,358 airplanes joining the freighter fleet by 2027, taking into account anticipated airplane retirements of 1,414 airplanes," it said.

According to Boeing, the additions will include 863 new production freighters valued at $206 billion and 2,495 converted freighters. "Wide-body freighters will dominate the new production freighter total and 641 will be of the large freighter segment (more than 80 tonnes capacity)," it said. "Demand for new production equipment is driven by operational efficiency and reliability, as well as environmental and regulatory pressures including noise, emissions and aging."

More than 60 per cent of all freighter fleet additions will be in the wide-body category with payloads of 40-80 tonnes, increasing their share from 61 per cent of the current fleet to 65 per cent of the 2027 fleet, Boeing said. "Consequently, there will be an increase in overall average freighter airplane payload," it said.

It said the share of standard-body freighters, which are less than 45 tonnes capacity, will decrease from 39% to 35% over the next two decades.

"Dedicated freighters will continue to provide an increasing proportion of air cargo capacity, going to nearly 54 per cent, and the industry will continue to move to larger airplanes," said Jim Edgar, regional director-cargo marketing for Asia. "Additionally, freighters will continue to comprise about 10% of the world jetliner fleet during the forecast period."