OECD sees Indian economy growing at 5.4-5.9% this fiscal

12 August 2014

India's economic growth is gaining momentum and with the new government initiating various measures to bolster growth, the economy is likely to expand in the range of 5.4 to 5.9 per cent this fiscal, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said today.

Estimates by the Paris-based think tank, based on composite leading indicators (CLIs), showed economic growth gaining momentum in most of the developed and emerging economies. While CLIs indicated growth gaining momentum in India it is around trend in China and Russia and below trend in Brazil, OECD said in its latest projections.

With India's CLI inching up to 99.2 in June from 98.9 in May, the country's economy, which recorded sub-five per cent growth in the past two years, is expected to see better expansion rate in the coming months, OECD stated.

In a separate report with special focus on India, the OECD Outlook projects sustained food production and consumption growth, led by value-added sectors like dairy production and aquaculture.

Investment in production technology and infrastructure together with  subsidies in a range of areas have contributed to strong output expansion over the past decade, the report says, adding that pressure on resources is expected to reduce production growth rates over the coming years.

OECD estimates, based on composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to point to stable growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole.

Major developed nations, including the United States and Canada, also continue to see "stable growth momentum".

Among the leading economies France and Britain is doing well while trading nations Japan and Germany are showing signs of losing pace, OECD said. Japan is anticipated to see an "interruption in the growth momentum although this probably reflects one-off factors," it noted.

While the euro zone as a whole is on a stable growth path, the latest OECD data contradicts several recent findings that France is lagging in the 18-member single-currency zone.

In Italy, however, the data continues to indicate a positive growth momentum, according to the OECD.

The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, had warned last week that recovery in the euro zone would be ''weak, fragile and uneven''.

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