Services to lead India’s GDP growth in fiscal 2013-14

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services, community, social and personal services' and electricity, gas and water supply are expected to record the highest growth rate of over 5 per cent, while `agriculture, forestry and fishing' are estimated to grow at a rate of 4.6 per cent, followed by 'trade, hotels, transport and communication' (3.5 per cent), 'construction' (1.7 per cent), `manufacturing' (-0.2 per cent) and `mining and quarrying' (-1.9 per cent).

However, the services sector, which accounts for nearly 60 per cent of the country's gross domestic product, is likely to grow at 6.9 per cent in 2013-14, a tad lower than the 7.0 per cent growth recorded in 2012-13.

The Indian economy is likely to close the current financial year ending 31 March 2014 with a 4.9 per cent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) against a decade-low 4.5 per cent GDP growth in 2012-13 (Apr-Mar), advance estimates of national income released by the Central Statistics Office on Friday showed.

India's GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices is likely to reach a level of Rs57,50,000 crore in the year 2013-14, against the first revised estimate of GDP for the previous fiscal year (2012-13) of Rs54,80,000 crore.

The growth in GDP during 2013-14 is estimated at 4.9 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 4.5 per cent in 2012-13.

GDP from agriculture in 2013-14 is expected to be higher with production of foodgrains estimated to be growing by 2.3 per cent compared to a decline of 0.8 per cent in the previous agriculture year.

Production of cotton and sugarcane is expected to grow by 6.7 per cent and 1.1 per cent compared to a decline of 2.8 per cent and 5.5 per cent, respectively, in the previous agriculture year. Horticultural production is expected to increase by 3.9 per cent and 4.1 per cent during the year 2013-14 compared to previous agriculture year.

However, as with services, CSO has projected a moderation in the growth rate of industry. Industrial production is projected to grow 0.7 per cent in 2013-14, compared with 1.0 per cent last year, dragged down by the mining and manufacturing sectors.

India's economic growth slowed to an average 5.4 per cent in the last three years from 8.5 per cent in the previous eight years pulled down by a global deceleration and moderation in domestic demand and investment.

Net national income (NNI) at factor cost, also known as national income (at 2004-05 prices) is estimated to grow to Rs49,30,000 crore during 2013-14, from the previous year's (first revised estimate) Rs47,30,000 crore.

In terms of growth rates, national income is expected to record a growth rate of 4.2 per cent in 2013-14 against the previous year's growth rate of 3.4 per cent.

Per capita income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2013-14 is estimated to be around Rs39,961, up 2.8 per cent from the first revised estimate for the year 2012-13 of Rs38,856, which in turn had grown at an estimated 2.1 per cent year-on-year.