Skymet Weather predicts normal rains from June
04 April 2018
With temperatures soaring, many Indians are worrying as to whether the monsoon would set across the country on time. Not to worry though; weather observers predict normal rains this year as well.
Skymet Weather, a private forecaster, has just come out with a reassuring statement. According to it, monsoon 2018 “is likely to remain normal at 100 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.”
The agency has predicted a 55 per cent chance of normal (seasonal rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA) rainfall. There are 20 per cent chances each for above normal (between 105 and 110 per cent of LPA) and below normal (between 90 and 95 per cent of LPA) rainfall.
It also says there is a five per cent chance of excess (more than 110 per cent of LPA) rainfall. And fortunately, there is a zero per cent chance of drought (seasonal rainfall of less than 90 per cent of LPA).
June will be the wettest of the four rainy months, recording 111 per cent of LPA (about 164 mm). July, the wettest month, will see 97 per cent of LPA (289 mm), while in August it will be 96 per cent of LPA (261 mm). September will see 101 per cent of LPA (173 mm), says the agency.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), the government body that monitors the weather across the country, will also be coming out with its monsoon forecast in a few days.
The IMD has predicted that the current hot weather season (April to June) is expected to see above normal sub-divisional average seasonal temperatures over most of the met sub-divisions of the country.
But sub-divisions of eastern, east-central and southern parts of the country are likely to experience slightly below normal seasonal temperatures.