US to become net oil exporter in 10 years: IEA
15 November 2017
The US is set to emerge a net oil exporter within 10 years, for the first time since the 1950s, thanks to the shale revolution in North America.
According to the International Energy Agency, it expected US oil produce between 2010 and 2025 to grow at a rate unparalleled by any country in history, with far-reaching consequences for the US and the world.
The last time the US exported more oil than it imported was in 1953, and a ban on oil exports was lifted only in 2015.
Huge reserves of gas and oil trapped in shale rock can now be tapped thanks to technological development since the turn of century. This has redrawn the energy landscape.
US citizens now pay less for their petrol, and the oil being pumped from states including Texas and North Dakota has diminished the ability of the oil cartel Opec's ability to control global prices.
''The US is becoming an undisputed global leader in oil and gas production. It has major implications across the energy world,'' said Dr Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), The Guardian reported.
According to the economist, the expected increases in US oil production would exceed Saudi Arabia's growth between the 1960s and 1970s, and the increase in US gas production would eclipse the Soviet Union's gas growth when it exploited Siberian fields.
According to the IEA's ''New Policies Scenario'', which takes into account existing legislation and announced policy intentions relative to emissions and climate change, the oil price should continue to rise towards $83 a barrel by the mid-2020s and find a longer-term equilibrium in a range of $50-70 a barrel.
According to IEA estimates, there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road by 2025 and 300 million by 2040, from around 2 million now. But this will only cut 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 2 per cent, off global oil demand by that time.
''It's quite spectacular, because you're going to see the number of cars on the road (globally) double from 1 billion to 2 billion, thanks to electric vehicles and fuel economy standards,'' said Laura Cozzi, head of the Energy Demand Outlook division, Reuters report.
''Many commentators say we are writing the obituary for oil demand ... it is certainly true in the passenger car segment and in power generation, but it is not true in the other two elements of oil demand: transportation and petrochemicals.''