Moody's maintains baseline GDP growth forecast of 6.8 for china in '15
18 August 2015
For China, Moody's maintained its baseline GDP growth forecast of 6.8 per cent for 2015 and 6.5 per cent in 2016, before falling towards 6 per cent by the end of the decade.
"The recent stock market correction is unlikely to have a significant impact on China's GDP growth. The depreciation of the renminbi so far will also not have any marked economic impact," it said.
Global economic growth, Moody's said, would be muted over the next two years. It projected G20 GDP growth at 2.7 per cent this year, rising to around 3 per cent in 2016, compared to 2.9 per cent in 2014.
"The recovery in the US and, to a lesser extent, the euro area and Japan, will be offset by the ongoing slowdown in China, low or negative growth in Latin America and only a gradual Russian recovery from its recession this year," said Marie Diron, senior vice president for credit policy at Moody's Investors Service.
Moody's said it expects the Brent price to average $57 a barrel in 2016, only a little higher than the 2015 average of $55.