The Iris lecture in Memmory of S.S. Nadkarni

I can visualise the impact of biotechnology in three ways:

1. Substantially improving the quality of life,

2. Substantially controlling the form of life, and

3. Substantially controlling the duration of life.

It is predicted that by the year 2025, gene therapies will become available for every major conceivable disease. Artificial assist devices will take over diseased liver and pancreatic functions. Individualised medicine will be developed on the basis of each person’s genetic make-up. Genetic manipulation will alter human traits. Animal cloning will be used to produce new drugs. Humanised transgenic animals will be reared to produce organs for transplantation. New vaccine technologies will be successful in treating drug addiction. Therapies for reducing the effects of aging will be in vogue. Tissue engineered organs will be available for replacement of diseased ones. Finally, a completely artificial form of life will be produced.

The discovery of the code of life, or genome, written in the sequence of four nucleotides that form the DNA, has enabled man to discover life and design life. A process that took nature three billion years to develop has been re-created by human technology in an incredibly short span of time. This decoding of the book of life heralds an exciting phase of human development, where life can be engineered. This is analogous to the discovery of natural elements by chemistry and physics that led to the development of a whole range of new synthetic materials, which are equal to, or better than, available natural materials. Biotechnology is also moving towards decoding the library of proteins in the body. This will enable mankind to alter the very metabolism of life processes.

Advances in medical biotechnology promise to increase life expectancy. By regulating telomeres, which are genes at the end of chromosomes and responsible for cell mortality, molecular biologists will have the ability to infuse longevity to life. By engineering tissues, molecular biologists will be able to grow artificial organs. It is entirely conceivable that in ten to twenty years from now most organs in the human body would either be derived from animals or tissue engineered.

In a lighter vein, we could have a situation where a man would go to have a knee replacement surgery and end up changing his heart and liver as well, for they come as part of a package deal.

The moot point is that biotechnology’s impact on life will be so profound that one wonders if mankind would be on the path to immortality.

What does all this mean to society? To my mind, it would lead to

1. aging of societies,

2. designing of life by societies, and

3. opening up new opportunities for creation of wealth.

Aging

First, let us look at aging of societies.

Recent advances in health care have significantly contributed to human longevity. Today, 45 million people in the USA are above the age of 60. This represents 17% of the American population of 276 million. In 25 years time this number will be 83 million, or a quarter of a population of 338 million. Germany is worse off. Roughly, a quarter of Germans are now old and in 25 years a third of them will be old. The case with Japan is very similar to that of Germany. China is better off with a tenth of its population now and a fifth of its population in 25 years being old. In contrast, India has a young population. Just 7% of Indians are above the age of 60. In 25 years time only 12% will be above sixty.

The population pyramids indicate a shift to an older society in the USA. The shift in Germany and Japan will be more pronounced. China will also see a shift to more elderly society. In contrast, India will be young and will see a swelling work force. Biotechnology will have the effect of further changing the demographic profile of the world.

Designing Life

Now let me look at designing of life by societies.

Today, human cloning and germ line gene technology are banned. But, in my view barriers to technology cannot be erected forever. If animal cloning is a reality, can human cloning be far away? If gene therapy for correcting genetic diseases is a reality can germ line gene therapy be far away?

On a lighter vein, think of human cloning as a means to have an identical twin, perhaps a generation or two younger than you. Your clone could do all the things that you do not want to do – like paying your bills and visiting your in-laws.

As I see it, designing life is not science fiction any more. It is a question of when. Cytogenetics based technologies are already in a position to diagnose chromosomal abnormalities. In the near future, medical biotechnology will help us screen diseases that would set in after several years. It would also enable us to choose enhancement genes to select the height, hair colour and muscular ability of children.

Talking of longevity and designing life, a Miss Universe beauty pageant finalist in the year 2050, who was herself created by a high fashion designer of life, was asked a question "If you could live forever, would you, and why?" The lady said, "I would not live forever, because we should not live life forever, because if we will aspire to live forever then we would live forever, but we cannot live forever, which is why I would not live forever. " No prizes for guessing, the contestant won the title. Life may change, but beauty pageant contest answers remain as confounding as ever!

Creation of Wealth

The rapid growth of biotechnology will also open up several avenues for creation of wealth. One indication of this is the estimate that the global biotechnology market will grow by about 100 billion US dollars in the next five years.

Although this is small in comparison to the global GDP of 30 trillion US dollars, it signals that the race has started. I for one, would envisage that biotechnology would grow to a trillion dollar industry in ten to fifteen years.

Biotechnology would help open up a completely new segment of the geriatric market, comprising of people who are above the age of 60. Today, this market is very small, but in the future it would be substantial. People beyond the age of 60 would be productive income earners. The old mindset of retirement at the age of 58, as we have in India, would no longer be relevant.

Biotechnology would also see the emergence of such domains as nutraceuticals, individualised medicine, regenerative medicine, pre-natal genetic screening and new classes of drugs. Each of these domains will represent large market opportunities, as they would touch the life of every person who inhabits the world.

Industrial and agricultural biotechnology would also throw up new wealth creation opportunities - from providing a new class of raw materials from biological sources to creating new species of plants.

The global financial community will also stand to gain – from funding a large number of new biotechnology ventures, launching large pension funds to designing innovative life insurance policies.

To sum up, biotechnology will substantially alter the quality of life, the form of life and the duration of life. It would promote new opportunities for creation of wealth.