Clinton now has 6 points lead over Trump in Fox News poll
19 October 2016
With just three weeks until the US Election Day, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump in all opinion polls, making her an almost certain bet as the new American President.
In the latest Fox News Poll of likely voters, she has a six-point lead over Trump, 45-39 per cent. Clinton was up by seven points last week (45-38 per cent) and by two in early October (44-42 per cent). Gary Johnson stands at 5 per cent and the Green Party's Jill Stein at 3 per cent.
In the head-to-head matchup, Clinton's up by 49-42 per cent. It was 49-41 per cent at the end of last week (10-12 October).
Clinton's advantage over Trump is at the edge of the poll's margin of error in the four-way contest and outside the margin of error in the head-to-head ballot.
The national poll, released Tuesday, was conducted Saturday through Monday. The third and final presidential debate will be moderated by Fox News Channel's Chris Wallace in Las Vegas today.
A large gender gap marks the four-way race, as Trump is ahead by 7 points among men, while Clinton is up 17 points among women. She also leads among non-whites (+51 points) and younger voters under 30 (+19). Johnson and Stein get the support of one in five of these young voters.
Whites with a college degree favour Clinton (+9 points), while whites without a degree go for Trump (+27). He's also the choice among whites (+10 points), veterans (+17), and those who regularly attend religious services (+16).
Trump has an edge among independents (+7), but is hurt by a lack of party loyalty. Only 80 per cent of Republicans back him. Eighty-seven per cent of Democrats support Clinton.
The two are about equally matched on strength of support and interest. About two-thirds of each candidate's supporters back their choice ''strongly'', and almost all of their supporters are extremely or very interested in the race.
There are, however, major differences on temperament and judgment. Overall, 61 per cent of voters say Clinton has the temperament to serve effectively as president. Sixty-one per cent think Trump doesn't.
By a 7-point margin, voters say Clinton has the judgment to serve (53-46 per cent). It's the reverse for Trump, as by a 23-point margin they believe he lacks the judgment (37-60 per cent).
That goes a long way toward explaining why Clinton is preferred over Trump by more voters when it comes to making decisions about using nuclear weapons (+25 points), handling an international crisis (+19), and handling foreign policy (+18).
While the two are more closely matched, Clinton also comes out on top on nominating Supreme Court justices (+6 points), as well as on handling the issues of Social Security/Medicare (+8), immigration (+6), and terrorism (+4 points).
However, Trump tops Clinton by six points on handling the economy - and voters say that's the most important issue facing the country. Clinton briefly had the edge last week (+3 points). Otherwise, Trump has consistently had a single-digit advantage on the economy.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw says if the election focus is on creating jobs and spurring economic growth, then ''Trump is very competitive''. Shaw conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.
Despite her close ties to the Obama administration, by a slim 47-44 per cent margin, voters pick Clinton over Trump as the one who will ''change the country for the better''.
More registered voters would feel ''enthusiastic'' or ''pleased'' if Clinton were to win in November (37 per cent), than would feel that way about a Trump win (30 per cent).
Voters dislike both
Both candidates receive more negative reactions to them winning (displeased / scared) than positive ones (enthusiastic / pleased). Over half would feel negatively if Trump were to become the next president (56 per cent), including 46 per cent who would feel ''scared.'' For Clinton, 48 per cent would react negatively, including 31 per cent ''scared.''
Seventy-six percent of Democrats would feel scared about a Trump presidency. Far fewer Republicans, 56 per cent, say a Clinton victory scares them.
It's well established that neither candidate is seen as honest by the electorate. Yet on specific scandals, the poll finds a difference - more voters think Clinton is lying about how her emails were handled while she was secretary of state (67 per cent) than think Trump is lying about the allegations women are making against him (51 per cent).
Even so, the email issue matters less in vote choice, as 24 per cent of those who think Clinton is lying still back her, while just 8 per cent of those who believe Trump is lying support him.
While neither is beloved, Trump's personal ratings are worse than Clinton's. She has a net negative rating of 4 points (47 per cent favourable v/s 51 per cent unfavourable). Trump is under water by 19 points (40 per cent favorable v/s 59 per cent unfavourable).
Again, the party faithful aren't all with Trump: 22 per cent of Republicans have a negative opinion of him. That's more than twice the number of Democrats who view Clinton unfavourably (9 per cent).
Even so, 77 per cent of Republicans view Trump favourably, which is much more positive than their view of some of his GOP primary opponents: Ted Cruz (59 per cent), Jeb Bush (56 per cent), and John Kasich (44 per cent). Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, a Trump surrogate, is viewed favourably by 72 per cent of Republicans.
Clinton (91 per cent favourable) has higher favourable ratings among Democrats than some of her surrogates, like former President Bill Clinton (88 per cent favourable) and former Vice President Al Gore (76 per cent favourable).
The stand-out is First Lady Michelle Obama, who gets a 59 per cent positive rating overall, and a 95 per cent favourable among Democrats.
Fifty-one percent say news coverage of Trump has been fair (46 per cent) or biased in his favour (5 per cent). Yet 43 per cent say it's been unfairly biased against him.
On the other hand, more than 8-in-10 think coverage of Clinton has either been fair (55 per cent) or unfairly positive (27 per cent). Only 11 per cent feel it's been anti-Clinton.
Seventy-eight per cent of those backing Clinton think her coverage has been fair or in her favour. For Trump, that number is just 13 per cent.
The Fox News Poll is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 1,011 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from 15-17 October 2016.
The survey includes results among 912 likely voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for results among both registered and likely voters.