Mumbai: The global market for replacement parts, maintenance and accessories for light vehicles is estimated to worth over $778 billion (at retail prices in 2006 for parts and labour included) and is predicted to enjoy double-digit growth.

This is according to a report, Five factors that will shape the future of the global automotive aftermarket, published by London-based independent market analyst, Datamonitor. According to the firm, growth of the light vehicle aftermarket will stem from vigorous increases in developing markets such as Central and Eastern Europe, Africa and Middle East (MEA), Latin America and Asia, excluding Japan.

The value of these developing markets is expected to grow by 47 per cent or 6.6 per cent per year from 2006-2011. By contrast, the developed markets (Western Europe, United States, Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand), are forecast to increase by 4.1 per cent or less than 1 per cent per year.

According to Datamonitor, of the various factors fuelling global growth in the light vehicle aftermarket, one of the most significant is the increase in the number of cars on the road (car parc).

"Car parc growth is the key trend which fuels the value of the aftermarket globally," says Richard Carteau aftermarket analyst with Datamonitor and author of the study. "The stellar economic growth in countries such as India and China therefore is leading to major growth in new car registrations and in turn to the number of vehicles on the road."

The report also points out other factors, which have a strong regional impact. In mature markets, for example more technical and better quality parts require less frequent replacement, but at a higher average cost. In developing countries however, fierce competition between manufacturers guarantees low manufacturing costs and offsets the upward trend in prices.

With the exclusion of Japan, Asia is the region, which Datamonitor expects to record the most significant spend per car (14 per cent growth over the period 2006 -2011). Pointing out that the aftermarket is strongly tipped to be the next sector to benefit from the booming Chinese automotive industry, Datamonitor says the double-digit growth is indicative of the confidence aftermarket professionals have in the Chinese automotive sector.

"As the huge number of new vehicles sold in the past few years ''come of age'' with regards to servicing, this augurs well for the Chinese aftermarket, says Carteau. "Furthermore, Chinese motorists'' consumption habits are progressively becoming westernised to the benefit of modern distribution channels, for example, Autocentres."

Datamonitor' predicts a 10-per cent increase of the light vehicle global aftermarket value sales by 2011, when it is expected to reach a value of over $860 billion, mainly due to the car parc growth. In contrast, low manufacturing costs are expected to result in a decrease of the global average spend per car by - 4 pert cent over the next five years in spite of the rising price of commodities.