PC market achieves first positive holiday quarter shipment growth in six years, says IDC

Worldwide shipments of traditional PCs (desktop, notebook, and workstation) totalled 70.6 million units in the fourth quarter of 2017 (4Q17), recording slightly positive (0.7 per cent) year-on-year growth, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. The results outperformed the forecast of a 1.7% decline in shipments during the quarter.

Worldwide Market Share, based on Shipments, of the Top 6 Personal Computing Device Companies, 4Q16-4Q17 (Graphic: Business Wire).

The 4Q17 results further validate the view of a steadying, albeit still weak, traditional PC market, buoyed mainly by commercial upgrades and pockets of improving consumer PC demand. 2017 ended with an annual shipment volume of 259.5 million units, which represents a year-over-year decline of 0.2 per cent. This makes 2017 the most stable year the market has seen since 2011.

Aside from commercial demand, 2017 was further helped by several other factors. Although the situation improved as the year progressed, the shortage of key components such as SSD (Solid State Drives) acted as a major driver of shipments for much of 2017, with top PC companies vying to lock up supply ahead of price increases and thus boosting orders.

In response to the contracting tablet market, companies also returned their focus to the notebook market, shifting the product mix to appeal to key user segments and expanding the number of slim, convertible, and gaming systems.

From a geographic perspective, the emerging regions were helped by a more favourable comparison against the tough market conditions in 2016, with Asia / Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) and Latin America both producing positive fourth quarter results. The United States remained a challenging market while Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) was stable and Japan continued to make steady gains with its sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

"The fourth quarter results showed some potentially encouraging headway against the difficult environment in retail and consumer PCs," says Jay Chou, research manager with IDC's Personal Computing Device Tracker. "Enticed by a growing array of products that promise all-day battery life, high portability, and address emerging use cases that require more compute power, pockets of the consumer base are taking a serious look at these revamped PCs. However, the overall PC market remains a challenging one."

"The solid holiday consumer sales provided enough momentum for the PC market to stabilize a bit further," said Neha Mahajan, senior research analyst, Devices & Displays. "However, the growing popularity of other mobile form factors continued to have a dampening effect and led the overall U.S. PC market to perform below expectations."

Regional Highlights:
The United States market experienced a decline in shipments in the fourth quarter of 2017 with a drop in both notebook and desktop sales despite reports of a strong holiday quarter. Overall, total PC shipments for 4Q17 stood at 16.5 million units.

The EMEA traditional PC market continued to gain strength, thanks to notebook growth from ongoing and accelerating mobility adoption. In addition to being a traditionally strong quarter in the consumer segment, 4Q17 shipments in the commercial space were strong, particularly driven by renewal projects that were postponed earlier. The fast approach of the compliance deadline for GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) in Europe and several reports of cyber security breaches made security a strong priority in the hardware refresh cycle among enterprises.

The APeJ traditional PC market came in above IDC's forecast in 4Q17. Good demand for gaming PCs and strong sales during the Singles Day promotion drove more shipments in the consumer PC market in China. In the ASEAN region, channel loading and promotions led to higher than expected sell-in in the Philippines and Indonesia. Elsewhere, weakening consumer spending after the Diwali festival impacted shipments in India.

The Japan traditional PC market exceeded IDC's forecast by a comfortable margin, achieving year-over-year growth of 3.8 per cent versus the forecast of a 2.9% decline in shipments. The commercial segment seems to be driving this growth due to rising demand from Windows 10 migration (and the end of support for Windows 7 scheduled for Q1 2020).

Company Highlights:
HP Inc pulled further ahead as the top company, maintaining its lead through every quarter of 2017. Shipments grew 8.3 per cent compared to a year ago for the seventh consecutive quarter of positive growth and volume hit more than 16 million units for the first time since the third quarter of 2011. HP further consolidated its position in the US market, growing its market share to 34 per cent.

Lenovo was the number 2 company in 4Q17 with a flat quarter compared to 4Q16. It continued to weather tough conditions in the US as it works through management transitions and channel changes. Outside of the US, Lenovo made solid gains growing 3.9 per cent year over year with solid notebook shipments during the quarter.

Dell Inc held the third position in 4Q17, posting year-over-year growth of 0.7 per cent and shipping more than 11 million units for the first time in 2017. Competition in the US market remained tough for the company as its US share and growth both suffered. Elsewhere the company saw solid numbers.

Apple remained in the fourth position and grew its shipments 7.3 per cent in 4Q17.

ASUS and Acer finished the fourth quarter in a statistical tie* for the fifth position. ASUS saw its shipments decline 11.2 per cent year over year in 4Q17. Meanwhile, Acer's focus on gaming PCs and related products, as well its presence in Chromebooks, helped it to close the gap with ASUS, despite a year-over-year decline in shipments.

(*IDC declares a statistical tie in the worldwide traditional PC market when there is a difference of one tenth of one percent or less in the share of revenues or shipments among two or more companies.)

Top companies, worldwide traditional PC shipments, market share, and year-over-year growth Fourth Quarter 2017 (Preliminary results) (Shipments are in thousands of units)

* IDC declares a statistical tie in the worldwide traditional PC market when there is a difference of one tenth of one percent or less in the share of revenues or shipments among two or more companies.

Table notes follow the last table.

Top companies, worldwide traditional PC shipments, market share, and year-over-year growth Calendar Year 2017 (Preliminary results) (Shipments are in thousands of units)

Table Notes:

• Some IDC estimates prior to financial earnings reports.
• Shipments include shipments to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are counted under the company/brand under which they are sold.
• Traditional PCs include Desktops, Notebooks, and Workstations and do not include Tablets or x86 Servers. Detachable Tablets and Slate Tablets are part of the Personal Computing Device Tracker, but are not addressed in this press release.
• Data for all companies are reported for calendar periods.