Ahmedabad: Guess how many US jobs are expected to migrate to India by the year 2015? As many as 3.3 million. So says Forrester Research group director John McCarthy. "The number of jobs moving out of the US will increase from 0.6 million in 2005 to 1.6 million in 2010 and 3.3 million in 2015."

This statement comes close on the heels of a recent Nasscom survey that predicts that the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector will grow at the rate of 65 per cent in the next three years. In 2002-03, according to Nasscom estimates, the total export revenues of the Indian IT industry are projected at Rs 117 billion, up from Rs 71 billion in 2001-02.

India has maintained its global competitiveness, offering the best combination of cost-quality-scalability versus competing offshore destinations such as the Philippines and China. Customer care and administration are fastest-growing segments in the IT-enabled services-BPO space, with a projected growth of over 75 per cent by the end of this financial year.

The Forrestor Research group head also believes that the number of US service jobs moving out of the country will rise in the coming years. Outsourcing will take US jobs in the short term but eventually, technology will eliminate a number of clerical jobs in the long run. Moreover, the movement of jobs will be to low-cost countries. Here, India has a critical advantage as nearly 85 per cent of the outsourcing is done to India.

McCarthy further estimates that the cost of outsourcing business will fall drastically in the next few years. As a result, Indian firms will have opportunities to run BPO outfits in niche areas where they can maintain profitability. "The steepest fall will occur during the 'reengineering/offshore' phase from 2004 to 2007. BPO vendors, on the other hand, will be competing to establish themselves and bring down the prices aggressively," he says.

But as long as the going is good and growth is experienced, Nasscom attributes it to the presence of experienced third party vendors who scaled up operations and entry of captive players. Nasscom's estimates suggest that almost every Fortune 100 company has shown interest in outsourcing operations to India.

Most leading third-party vendors further consolidated their leadership position by investing in infrastructure, quality standards, employee-training and re-skilling, expanding service line and process offerings, investing in marketing front-ends and personnel with domain and process skills.

Clearly, there is a long way to go for the Indian BPO industry before it flattens out.