Emissions scheme’s rejection may trigger fresh elections in Australia

The Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, modeled on the emissions trading projects already in operation in Europe and elsewhere sailed through the Labor-controlled House of Representatives this month but could be shot down in the Senate, which is controlled by conservatives and minor parties, who have vowed to defeat it.

The bill faces major obstacles in Senate and analysts say the prospects of an early election centred on the environmental issues cannot be dismissed.

In the simple terms the plan provides for setting a cap on how much carbon dioxide would be allowed to be released into the atmosphere annually and to buy and sell pollution permits designed to meet the target. It plans to cut Australia's emissions by at least 5 per cent of 2000 levels by 2020. This would amount to as much as 25 per cent overall if other major emitters commit to similar cuts at global climate talk in Copenhagen later this year.

The government is set to introduce its legislation to the Senate on Monday. The scheme has met with opposition from across the political spectrum. Conservatives are of the opinion that Australia should not commit itself to any target ahead the world's largest emitters China and the US revealing their plans to fight global warming and climate change. They also want an agreement to the Kyoto agreement which expires in 2012 to be first reached.

According to the conservatives, the plan would increase the cost of coal and other energy-intensive exports and allow competitors like Indonesia to undercut Australia on world markets.

To add to the government's woes, it has also failed to take on board the Greens party which rejects the plan saying a 25 per cent cut in emissions should be the minimum target and not its maximum.

Steve Fielding, a senator from the conservative Family First party, whose vote could potentially prove to be the tie-breaker has said that he was not convinced of human activity being the cause of climate change.

Christine Milne, the deputy leader of the Greens party said that she had no doubt that the legislation would not pass, adding that her party had been left out of the negotiations for its stand on the targets.

Meanwhile, protesters in Sydney blockaded the offices of prime minister Kevin Rudd last week saying that the government was not delivering on its responsibility towards the environment. Green MP Lee Rhiannon speaking to the protestors said that the prime minister needed to understand that baby steps was not what was needed. He added that Australia needs a giant leap into a zero emissions future.

Rallies have  also been held elsewhere in Australia, including Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart to challenge the government's decision to delay the start of an emissions trading scheme by at least a year.

Australia is the largest exporter of coal which earns billions of dollars for the country, generates more than 80 per cent of its electricity and employs thousands of people in the coal mining and associated sectors.

The country had, for years, refused to ratify the Kyoto protocol on global warming but prime minister Kevin Rudd reversed a long time policy to worldwide applause when he took over two years back and launched Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, a major environmental initiative, that is now nearing a crucial phase.