Seeking Osama bin Laden –some high tech analysis

A unique set of geographic analytical tools has been deployed to pinpoint the likely hiding place of fugitive terrorist, al Qaeda leader, Osama bin Laden. According to researchers who have put together the analytical tools, Osama's most likely hiding place is in one of three walled compounds in a Pakistani border town, Parachinar.

A research team led by geographer Thomas Gillespie of the University of California-Los Angeles used geographic analytical tools, along with satellite imagery, much in the manner it has been successfully used to locate urban criminals and endangered species.

The research also used public reports of bin Laden's habits and whereabouts since his flight from the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan in 2001.

The results, reported in the MIT International Review, have aroused skeptical interest among professionals involved in the hunt for bin Laden.

According to Gillespie, the study combines satellite records of geographic locations, patterns of nighttime electricity use and population-detection methods to produce a technique for locating fugitives.

It starts with "distance decay theory," which holds that the odds are greater that the person will be found close to where he or she was last seen. To this it adds the "island biographic theory," which says that locations with more resources, such as electricity for wealthy fugitives, are more likely hideouts.

The study also assumes that bin Laden would need:

• Medical treatment, requiring electricity in an urban setting.
• Security, as well as isolation
• Tree cover to shield outdoor activities from aircraft.

The researchers have contacted the FBI with their findings.

The study grew out of an undergraduate seminar on applying geographic profiling to real-world problems.