Steep climb in numbers

Speaking at the annual Joint Air Power Conference, in October 2006, commander of the US Air Forces in Europe, Gen. William T. Hobbins, pointed out that unmanned aircraft were now intrinsic to military operations and that they would play a key role in future air, space and cyberspace missions for US and NATO forces.

According to Hobbins, growth in the use of these unmanned aircraft systems was not limited to the United States alone; their deployment was growing around the world. He pointed out that this trend was evident from the fact that at least 40 countries were now operating more than 80 types of unmanned aerial vehicles.

The US, said Hobbins, had at least 18 types of unmanned aircraft, with more than 3,000 in numbers currently in operation. He also pointed out that currently NATO nations had more than 25 operational models of unmanned aircraft in operation, exceeding 3,600 in number.

Hobbins expects that between 2000 and 2010 total funding for unmanned aircraft would grow from 4 per cent of all aircraft to 31 per cent. The reason for such growth, according to Hobbins, is the discovery that unmanned systems can accomplish a variety of missions, which have now expanded from the traditional reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition roles to 36 non-traditional areas, including digital mapping and day and night strikes.

"The global picture on unmanned systems has changed dramatically," Hobbins said. "The information age had now found its way to military unmanned aerial systems (UASs). It was perfect timing, too ... We needed situational awareness at the tactical, operational and strategic levels of war. We needed a powerful force multiplier. The unmanned aircraft provided the means to exploit the new, non-linear battle space."

The UAV, evidently, is no longer a piece of exotica that high-tech forces are prone to deploy – often with questionable results. As a piece of equipment, it is now shaping tactical and strategic warfare doctrines of militaries around the world.

Explosive growth
A market study, released in October 2006 by the US-based aerospace and defence market analysis firm, the Teal Group, says that that UAVs will be "one of the hottest areas of growth for defense and aerospace companies." According to the study, funding for UAV and related projects around the world, very likely, will more than triple over the next decade from the current $2.7 billion to $8.3 billion annually within a decade. The study also projects that worldwide funding may reach close to $55 billion in the next ten years.

The Teal study points out that as militaries around the world, primarily in the US, fall in line with the general trend towards information warfare and net-centric systems, the UAVs are going to form "…a key element in the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) portion of this revolution …" The study also points out that with the advent of hunter-killer UAVs, these systems are now expanding into other missions as well.

According to the Teal Group, sales of UAVs ought to follow the ongoing pattern of arms procurement worldwide. According to the study, Europe would represent the second largest market, that is, about 20 per cent of the world market. The Teal Group also expects the Asia-Pacific region to be the principal market for UAVs outside the US and Europe, followed by the Middle East.

A civilian market
The Teal study also points out that a civilian UAV market will slowly emerge over the next decade. Such a market is likely to assume shape with government organisations initially putting forward requirements for surveillance systems similar to military UAVs for use by their coast guards, border patrol organisations and various national security organisations. They are also likely to use these systems for monitoring forest fires, law enforcement surveillance and border patrol.

According to the US Federal Aviation Authority (FAA), more than 50 manufacturers offer nearly 150 unmanned aerial system (UAS) products, in the US today even as other manufacturers are poised to enter the marketplace. The current UAS market in the US, driven by government organisations such as the departments of defence and homeland security, US Customs and Border Protection and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is expected to change in character.

Major companies around the world, such as the European manufacturer Finmeccanica, are offering UAV systems geared to tackle airborne surveillance, identification, maritime and border patrol, environmental monitoring and emergency control. Interestingly, Finmeccanica's FALCO UAV has obtained a permit to fly from ENAC, the Italian civil aviation authority. The FALCO models will have civil identification numbers and are the first UAVs to receive the same flying authorisation as manned aircraft. The permit is the first step towards obtaining full civil certification for the FALCO.

Systems such as FALCO are geared towards meeting newly emerging threats, such as terrorist attacks and illegal immigration. Coastal states can also make use of these systems to protect national maritime interests and natural resources in exclusive economic zones, as well as sensitive coastal areas and naval bases. The FALCO and other UAV systems allow remotely established operation control centres to view and assess targets, manage resources, communicate with each other, and when necessary, to intervene decisively.

All in all, given the enhanced capabilities that unmanned aerial systems are beginning to display, and consequently the wide range of duties that they can be deployed for, it is only a matter of time before the UAV becomes a more ubiquitous presence in the skies than the manned variety.

In this regard it is interesting to note that in September 2006, the FAA selected Lockheed Martin to support the development of a roadmap for introducing unmanned aircraft systems into the National Airspace System in the US. As per the charter, Lockheed Martin will assist the FAA's Unmanned Aircraft Program Office by applying its technical, programmatic and specialised expertise in air traffic systems and airspace operations "… to evaluate the current state of UAS mission needs, forecast their near-term demands on airspace capacity and chart a strategic plan to safely integrate their operations into the nation's airspace."

Lockheed Martin's contract from the FAA is as visible a portent as any of the UAVs rising ascendancy.