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Downtrend persists in the market

Rex Mathew*
8 April 2005


After exhibiting some confidence last week, the market seems to have developed reservations about corporate results due from next week onwards. The indices opened weak and declined over a percent each in morning trades. After showing some signs of recovery towards mid-session, they cracked again under selling pressure and closed near the lows of the day. Sensex closed at 6480, down 66 points and the Nifty at 2031, down 22 points.

Among index stocks ITC, Bajaj Auto and Bharti Tele were the biggest percentage gainers while Zee Tele, HDFC Bank and Infosys were the major losers.

Even though oil prices have declined and world markets have recovered, domestic market continues to be apprehensive about the future outlook. Though the results for the Jan-March quarter is not expected to hold any negative surprises, investors are concerned about the possibility of weak future earnings guidance from companies. This is especially so in the case of IT companies, whose profitability is expected to be adversely affected by the fringe benefit tax. To make matters worse, the ADR of Infosys saw a large sell off on NASDAQ yesterday even as other tech stocks gained ground.

NYMEX crude futures for May delivery crashed almost 3 per cent to around $54 to a barrel yesterday. The decline came after reports of higher than expected inventory of petroleum products in the US, which are at their highest levels in almost three years. In early European trades today, it has slipped below the $54-mark.

Yesterday, US markets continued their recovery as NASDAQ gained close to a per cent and the Dow more than half a per cent. Indian ADR's had a bad day even in an advancing market as the tech stocks met with considerable selling pressure. Infosys lost over 4 per cent while Wirpo lost over 2 per cent. Satyam, ICICI Bank and MTNL also declined. Tata Motors and HDFC Bank managed to close with gains.

Exports from India recorded a 24 per cent increase to touch $80 billion for the year ended March 2005. As per the rough estimates released by the ministry of commerce, imports at $105 billion were 34 per cent higher than the previous year. The strong export performance even as the Rupee appreciated indicates a structural shift in our export basket to more value added goods which are less price sensitive.

Inflation for the week ended 26 March declined to 5.05 per cent as against 5.11 per cent the week before. Market had expected a figure of 4.99 per cent.

The union cabinet deferred the discussion about a hike in prices of petroleum products by a week. All oil marketing companies are losing substantially as crude oil prices have increased dramatically from the last time petrol prices were hiked. The government may be taking heart from the slight decline in crude prices over the last few days and would not want any inflationary pressures at this point.

Domestic power utility NTPC announced its provisional and un-audited results for the year ended 31 March 2005. The company beat market expectations by reporting over 30 per cent increase in profit as compared to the previous year on a 17 per cent growth in revenues. The profit figures are after excluding exceptional items. The company is planning to set up hydro power projects with a total capacity of 5,000 MW.

After Tata Tea transferred some of its tea estates to companies controlled by its employees, Hindustan Lever today announced its plans to transfer its estates in Assam and Tamil Nadu to subsidiary companies. HLL has indicated that these subsidiaries may be sold off in future. Tea companies are trying to get out of the low return estate management and focus more on marketing.

Mid-cap action
Sugar stocks corrected as one of the industry leaders, Bajaj Hindustan, came out with less than promising results for the quarter ended March 2005. The company doubled its profit even as sales declined marginally as compared to the same quarter last year. The decline in sales even after the company commissioned a new mill disappointed the market as did the lower than expected realisations from bagasse. However, the company is carrying most of its production of current season as stocks and expects to post better results in the next two quarters.

Nylon tyre cord manufacturer NRC Ltd is acquiring the Nylon-6 yarn facilities of Nirlon. The plant has a capacity of 12-tonnes per day and will cost NRC Rs60 crore. The company expects the new facility to add around Rs15 crore to its bottom line and will be an all cash deal.

Alstom India was locked in the 20 per cent upper circuit in early morning trades for the second consecutive day. French energy utility Areva has come out with an open offer for a 20 per cent stake in Alstom India at a price of Rs75.03. The stock is trading at above Rs100, a steep premium to the offer price. Areva is taking over the company from the current owner Alstom Holdings.

HCL Technologies received an order worth Rs20 crore from the Bangalore Development Authority to implement information systems in various departments. The stock declined in line with the general weakness in IT stocks.

Steel manufacturer Ispat Industries has entered into an agreement with UTI to restructure the company's borrowings. The company will have to pay Rs539 crore, including principal and interest. It will make an upfront payment of Rs55 crore and the balance in monthly installments over the next three years. The company expects to save around Rs10 crore in interests every quarter after this restructuring.

Mercator Lines has successfully completed its FCCB issue and has raised $60 million. The bonds are convertible after 5 years and carry an interest rate of 1.5 per cent. The bonds will be listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange.

United Western Bank shot up 10 per cent in morning trades after the bank approved plans to raise Rs380-crore capital over the next two years. The bank will raise the amount through a mix of rights, preferential and GDR issues. The bank has one of the highest percentages of bad assets in the industry.

send this article to a friendJindal Photo Films, FACT and Aztec Software were the biggest percentage gainers today, with Jindal Photo gaining 20 per cent.

Reliance Industrial Infrastructure, Williamson Magor and JP Associates were among the major losers for the day.

*Disclaimer: The author doesn't have any position in the stocks specifically mentioned above at the time of writing this article. This analysis/report is only for the purpose of information and is not an investment advice. Readers are advised to consult a certified financial advisor before taking any investment decisions. While efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided in the content the author or publisher shall not be held responsible for any loss caused to any person whatsoever.

Other articles by Rex Mathew

List of general reports on markets

List of general reports on finance

Market: Indices

National Markets
Gain (+) / Loss (-)

SENSEX
6,479.54 -66.10
NIFTY 2,031.20 -21.65
Last Update : 8 April, 2005, 16:15 PM

Market Counters
Figures in Rupees

BSE 30
Scrip Name Open High Low Last Price
BHARTI TELE 210.00 214.95 210.00 213.05
I T C LTD 1,355.00 1,412.40 1,355.00 1,401.70
BAJAJ AUTO 1,040.00 1,061.00 1,040.00 1,052.90
HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORP. LTD. 322.30 325.00 318.30 322.70
MARUTI UDYOG 410.50 414.75 407.10 411.55
ZEE TELEF LT 148.00 151.60 143.25 143.75
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD 2,170.10 2,190.00 2,117.00 2,126.60
HDFC BANK LT 561.00 565.00 539.10 546.85
SATYAM COMP 423.00 424.00 410.60 411.55
LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD. 1,040.00 1,040.00 975.50 981.90
WIPRO LTD. 679.00 679.70 665.00 667.50
TATA POWER 349.05 349.90 340.00 341.40
GRASIM INDUSTRIES LTD. 1,213.00 1,232.00 1,190.60 1,200.95
BHEL 796.00 796.00 755.00 778.00
RELIANCE* 562.00 566.90 553.10 557.15
HINDALCO IN 1,368.00 1,374.00 1,345.00 1,347.95
TATA IRON AND STEEL CO. LTD. 387.00 389.70 379.40 381.25
GUJARAT AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD. 410.00 411.30 401.00 404.10
HEROHONDA M 544.00 544.00 534.10 535.40
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CO 719.45 722.70 708.10 711.55
RELIANCE ENR* 531.00 534.20 525.00 525.85
RANBAXY LABORATORIES LTD. 989.00 995.00 972.00 977.60
ICICI BANK L 405.60 415.70 402.25 405.50
ONG CORP LTD 894.00 897.90 881.10 886.20
TATA MOTORS 426.00 427.00 419.00 420.80
ACC 362.15
Cipla 251.50
Dr. Reddys Laboratories 744.90
HLL 131.75
State Bank Of India 653.40
Last Update : 8 April, 2005, 16:05PM

S&P CNX Nifty
Symbol Open High Low Last Price
INFOSYSTCH 2175.50 2180.00 2118.00 2127.90
RELIANCE 567.00 568.00 553.40 556.85
TISCO 386.05 389.50 379.25 381.05
SBIN 657.00 659.45 648.00 653.15
SATYAMCOMP 423.00 424.00 410.25 411.75
ITC 1380.00 1410.00 1365.00 1400.20
TATAMOTORS 425.00 427.70 418.80 422.70
MARUTI 414.00 415.00 407.10 411.50
TCS 1430.70 1434.90 1390.05 1393.55
BHEL 792.00 795.00 759.05 777.20
ONGC 900.00 900.00 880.00 886.05
PNB 391.00 392.00 381.00 381.60
SAIL 63.50 63.80 62.65 62.90
LT 1012.50 1012.50 975.00 983.55
RANBAXY 990.00 994.00 972.10 978.75
HINDPETRO 320.00 325.00 318.00 322.40
M&M 481.90 482.00 470.65 476.25
ACC 365.90 366.10 351.05 361.75
WIPRO 678.50 678.50 663.00 665.20
ORIENTBANK 315.00 315.00 300.55 304.85
BPCL 367.10 374.00 362.80 364.20
GUJAMBCEM 411.00 412.45 400.65 404.50
HCLTECH 380.00 380.50 369.05 370.60
ICICIBANK 409.80 415.90 400.15 403.95
TATAPOWER 347.10 349.60 340.00 341.95
HDFCBANK 563.95 565.00 538.00 546.65
CIPLA 254.75 255.00 250.25 251.60
ZEETELE 148.95 151.70 143.00 143.95
GAIL 217.00 217.50 212.00 213.15
BHARTI 210.70 213.45 210.05 212.80
HINDLEVER 131.55 133.80 131.50 132.05
IPCL 172.00 172.00 169.00 169.65
REL 532.00 534.50 525.00 525.70
GRASIM 1220.00 1229.00 1191.00 1201.30
DRREDDY 754.00 755.80 738.00 746.10
MTNL 118.20 119.00 116.05 116.65
HDFC 719.50 722.00 708.20 712.50
HEROHONDA 536.00 544.80 531.25 533.55
HINDALC0 1370.00 1374.00 1340.00 1346.15
TATACHEM 157.35 157.35 154.55 155.40
NATIONALUM 174.30 175.00 171.00 173.30
BAJAJAUTO 1041.05 1069.00 1041.05 1055.70
SCI 154.80 156.00 152.75 155.05
COLGATE 189.00 199.95 188.50 190.80
VSNL 201.00 201.80 194.15 195.05
TATATEA 533.00 535.95 527.20 528.80
DABUR 113.95 114.00 110.65 111.95
ABB 1233.00 1240.00 1200.00 1214.45
SUNPHARMA 462.00 462.95 460.00 460.35
GLAXO 707.00 711.00 702.00 703.75
Last Update : 8 April, 2005, 16:04PM


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Downtrend persists in the market