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Markets Climb New Peaks

Rex Mathew*
8 March 2005


It is getting a bit unexciting now. Fifth straight day of gains, fourth straight day of new all-time highs and the sensex closing above 6900 for the first time ever. Even history will lose relevance if we keep re-writing it every day. Sensex closed at 6915, up 36 points and the Nifty at 2169, a gain of 9 points. The Nifty futures discount to the spot index narrowed to 6 points.

Crude closed marginally lower on news that OPEC may not cut production. US markets were mixed with NASDAQ rallying and Dow closing lower. Tech stocks on NASDAQ found all round buying as robust economy is expected to push up demand for technology products. Indian ADR's had a mixed day. HDFC Bank was the major gainer with gains of 2.5 per cent. Telecom stocks VSNL and MTNL as well as IT majors managed gains while Tata Motors and Dr. Reddy's closed lower. ICICI Bank and Infosys closed marginally lower.

IMF expects good days ahead for the world economy with growth rates of 4.3 per cent. It predicts a weaker US dollar and increasing currency appreciation risks for Europe and Japan. The IMF expects the US economy to post a healthy growth rate of 3.7 per cent.

Investment bank JP Morgan revised its year end sensex target to 8000 post budget from 7000 earlier. JP Morgan predicts an overall re-rating for the Indian market from additional domestic flows into the market. IT, banking, petrochemicals and infrastructure companies are the most attractive sectors as per the bank.

Aluminium majors Nalco and Hindalco were major gainers with the former gaining more than 8 per cent on short covering in the futures market.

Pharma majors Ranbaxy, Cipla and Dr Reddy's, who have been rank under-performers over the last year rallied in after noon trades. All the three gained more than 3 per cent each.

Tata Steel plans to raise steel prices next month. It will invest around Rs3,000 crore in the proposed Bangladesh steel plant and is scouting for acquisition targets in East Asia and China. The stock closed marginally up.

Tech stocks kept the market up with strong gains following the rally in US tech stocks on NASDAQ yesterday. Satyam gained close to 3 per cent while Infosys and TCS ended up close to 1 per cent each. Wipro was the only loser but the stock had made strong gains over the last few sessions. TCS intends to develop its software assisted drug discovery business for the global pharma industry. This system has the potential to cut down drug discovery costs by as much as 50 per cent.

HDFC Bank was another gainer as the bank's ADR rallied overnight at the New York stock exchange. Foreign institutions are lapping up HDFC for its superior management and as a good proxy for the 'India growth story'.

Auto stocks Mahindra and Maruti continued their downtrend. February was a disappointing month for most auto companies with sales declining as compared to January. Auto companies have witnessed strong demand pickup over the last few years and some of them may find it difficult to maintain the growth rates going forward as the base has become much larger.

Commercial vehicle manufacturers may be better off as the rapid development of the highway network is expected to boost demand. CV majors Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland bucked the downtrend with the latter gaining more than 5 per cent. Tata Motors had launched a major initiative in fully built buses and coaches yesterday aiming a turnover of over $1 billion over the next few years from this segment.

Mid-cap action
Private sector bank Bank of Rajastan made strong gains as its board approved a stake sale of not more than 14.75 per cent to a group of foreign investors. French banking major Societe General (SG) is believed to be undertaking a due diligence on the bank for picking up a 5 per cent stake.

Other private sector mid-cap banks like IndusInd and South Indian Bank also saw good buying on expectations of stake sales to foreign banks. IndusInd gained more than 7 per cent.

UB group stocks, UB Limited, UB Holdings and McDowell Ltd continued their rally as the group announced its intention to consolidate the liquor businesses.

SSI was locked at the 20 per cent upper circuit for the second day. Scandent, the de-merged IT services division of SSI is to be listed on the stock exchanges tomorrow.

Mid-cap public sector banks continued their rally led by Bank of India and Andhra Bank with gains of more than 5 per cent each. Allahabad Bank gained more than 4 per cent.

Orient Paper saw strong buying as the company increased paper prices by Rs500 to Rs1,000 per tonne. The company is expected to post good results more as a result of its cement operations than paper. FII's have increased their exposure to the counter.

Yesterday if it was cash with domestic funds waiting to come to the markets, today it was additional India specific funds being raised in send this article to a friendJapan that kept the market buoyant. Investors would do well to wait for a correction before bringing fresh money into the market.

*Disclaimer: The author doesn't have any position in the stocks specifically mentioned above at the time of writing this article. This analysis/report is only for the purpose of information and is not an investment advice. Readers are advised to consult a certified financial advisor before taking any investment decisions. While efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided in the content the author or publisher shall not be held responsible for any loss caused to any person whatsoever.

Other articles by Rex Mathew

List of general reports on markets

List of general reports on finance

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Markets Climb New Peaks