labels: industry - general, gartner, telecom
India to surpass China in mobile handset sales by 2009: Gartnernews
21 July 2005

Mumbai: According to a global forecast, Forecast: Mobile Terminals, Worldwide, 2000-2009, on mobile phones by the IT-focussed research and analysis consultancy, Gartner, the milestone of one billion units sales per year will be reached in 2009.

This study included detailed forecasts of sales in 62 countries compiled by a team of more than 20 mobile and wireless analysts based in 12 countries around the globe.

Worldwide mobile sales, 1997 to 2009 (millions of units)

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

107.84

175.65

295.15

414.99

413.31

427.37

519.99

674.00

778.75

847.24

914.02

980.29

1,041.52

Source: Gartner Dataquest (July 2005)

The research also showed:

  • In 2005, mobile phone sales will reach 779 million units, a 16 per cent increase on 2004.
  • More than 100 million 3G phones will be sold in 2006.
  • More than 200 million smartphones will be sold in 2008.
  • Asia / Pacific accounts for most sales - one in every four mobile phones sold this year. In 2009 this will increase to one in three.
  • China and India alone will account for nearly 200 million units in 2007, with the Indian market surpassing China in 2009 to reach 139 million units.

According to Gartner, in 2004 the total number of mobile phones sold was around 21 million in India, which is estimated to be 34 million in 2005. In comparison China clocked in 68 million units in 2004 and is estimated to grow to 85 million in 2005.

According to Kobita Desai, principal analyst Asia Pacific for telecom, "A conducive regulatory environment, affordable services and increased geographic penetration of networks will drive mobile penetration in India. An important enabler will be the initiative in bringing down handset costs to lower the initial barrier to entry, says.

"The world's appetite for mobile phones has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations," said Ben Wood, research vice president for mobile terminals at Gartner. "Mobile phones could go on to be the most common consumer electronics devices on the planet." Gartner estimates there will be 2.6 billion mobile phones in use by the end of 2009.

"The sales volume cannot be attributed to one region in particular. It's a truly global phenomenon," said Carolina Milanesi, principal analyst at Gartner for mobile terminals. "In mature markets like Europe and North America, subscribers are still buying replacement phones. In emerging markets like Brazil and India, new customers are signing up for mobile services at an even faster rate."

North Americans are still buying the latest models, but the bigger story is in Latin America. Hugues De La Vergne, Gartner's principal analyst for mobile terminals in the Americas, said "Sales nearly doubled in 2004 within Latin America and they will reach 100 million mobile phones a year by 2009. Brazil is the powerhouse of the region, accounting for more than a third of sales this year."

A deeper analysis of the forecast shows that smartphones are the fastest growing category of device. "Smartphone sales broke all records in the first quarter of 2005 and we expect them to double year on year to 2006", says Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner.

Despite spectacular growth on all fronts, not everything is rosy. Wood cautions saying, "Sales numbers are impressive, but the big names in this industry will have to deliver value as well as volume. We expect the average wholesale price of a mobile phone will decline from $174 in 2004 to $161 in 2009. At the same time, phones will keep getting more complex and become ever-more packed with features. Only the sharpest players will survive."


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India to surpass China in mobile handset sales by 2009: Gartner