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New Delhi: The Indain Meteorological Department (IMD) yesterday released a long range forecast that predicted a long range forecast south-west monsoon this year. The IMD Director-General, Dr S.K. Srivastav said that total rainfall for the country as a whole during the coming monsoon season (June-September) will be 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with a quantitative model error of plus or minus 5 per cent. The LPA is the average precipitation received over a 70-year period (1901-70), which is about 88 cm. According to the Department's 8-parameter 'probabilistic model,' there is only 4 per cent likelihood of a drought this year, which involves total rainfall during June-September being less than 90 per cent of the LPA. On the other hand, there is a 16 per cent probability of `below normal' rainfall ( 90 to 97 per cent of LPA), 58 per cent probability of `near normal' rainfall (98 to 102 per cent of LPA), 18 per cent probability of `above normal' rainfall (103 to 110 per cent of LPA) and 4 per cent of `excess rainfall' (more than 110 per cent of LPA).
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