Late surge lifts Sensex 100 points, Midcap gains too, banks up
16 June 2015
The market staged a smart recovery in late trade Tuesday after seeing wild swings. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell more than 200 points intraday on global woes but short covering in banks, auto and FMCG stocks lifted the market higher in late trade. The index rose 99.96 points to 26686.51 and the 50-share NSE Nifty managed to hold 8000 level, up 33.40 points at 8047.30 after seeing almost 100 points recovery from day's low.
The broader markets also recovered with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rising 0.8 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. However, the market breadth was negative as about 1279 shares advanced against 1351 shares declined on the Bombay Stock Exchange.
Experts remained cautious in near term as they don't see any positive triggers that may push Nifty above 9000. However, they are optimistic on market with 1-3 years perspective.
Prabhat Awasthi of Nomura believes there is not much exuberance left in the market. According to him, earnings trajectory will pick up in H2FY16, although mood is cautious. He does not find any reason to change Sensex year-end target of 33500.
On the global front, Asian markets closed lower as Greece's debt talks and the two-day Federal Reserve meeting (that will begin tonight) sapped risk appetite. China's Shanghai plunged 3.5 percent on margin lending curbs and Hang Seng declined 1.1 percent. In Europe, CAC and DAX lost 1 percent each followed by FTSE with 0.7 percent loss.
Back home, May trade deficit narrowed to 3-month low of USD 10.41 billion today against USD 10.99 billion in previous month. Exports for May stood at USD 22.34 billion against USD 22.05 billion in April and imports came in at USD 32.75 billion.
Overall, Anand Rathi Financial Services expects the monthly trade deficit to hold at present levels. The brokerage firm is cautious on export growth. It said import growth would be fuelled by the appetite for gold and the upward trajectory of crude prices.
The rupee weakened today, hitting a 1-month low. The currency closed at 64.24 a dollar, down 8 paise due to fresh capital outflows and dollar strength.
Country's biggest lenders State Bank of India and ICICI Bank gained 1.6 percent and 0.94 percent, respectively. Tata Motors, HUL, Hero Motocorp, NTPC, Tata Power and Bajaj Auto climbed 1-2.5 percent.
Mahindra and Mahindra was up 1 percent. The Mahindra Group subsidiary Mahindra Aerospace bagged a multi-year aero-components manufacture and supply contract from Airbus.
However, HDFC, TCS, Dr Reddy's Labs, Vedanta, Tata Steel, Wipro and BHEL declined 0.5-1.5 percent.
Cairn India slipped 2.8 percent. Cairn Energy Plc, which owns nearly 10 percent in Cairn India, is not openly supporting the merger with Vedanta. They told CNBC-TV18 that they are evaluating the proposal. On the other side, the government remained firm on the USD 3.2 billion tax demand even as Cairn Energy hopes for a resolution through negotiations.
03:30 pm Market close: After a lot of struggle, a late surge helped market to end with some smart gains. The Sensex ended up 99.96 points or 0.4 percent at 26686.51, and the Nifty was up 33.40 points or 0.4 percent at 8047.30. About 1289 shares have advanced, 1336 shares declined, and 176 shares are unchanged. Bajaj Auto, Tata Power, SBI, HUL and NTPC were lead gainers while Vedanta, Dr Reddy's, Tata Steel, HDFC and GAIL were laggards.
03:13 pm Market check: The Sensex is up 117.28 points or 0.4 percent at 26703.83, and the Nifty is up 37.80 points or 0.5 percent at 8051.70. About 1193 shares have advanced, 1378 shares declined, and 162 shares are unchanged.
Tata Power, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, NTPC and SBI are top gainers in the Sensex. Among the losers are Vedanta, HDFC, Dr Reddy''s Labs, BHEL and Tata Steel.
03:10 pm Market outlook: Technical analyst, Shubham Agarwal of Motilal Oswal Securities says, "If you look at the overall development on Nifty, on the larger scale we believe that Nifty is placed at a make or break point where we are expecting a fierce move up beyond 1,000 point to happen and this breakout should take place in a very less span of time. So, we see maximum 15-20 days of more consolidation."
02:50pm Market recovers: The Sensex declined 29.60 points to 26556.95 and the Nifty fell 5.80 points to 8008.10. About 1009 shares have advanced, 1517 shares declined, and 167 shares are unchanged on the BSE.
Banks gained strength in last hour of trade with the SBI rising 1 percent. ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank rebounded with marginal gains. ITC and L&T also recovered.
02:40pm Trade data: India's trade deficit narrowed to a three-month low in May, helped by lower gold imports, bolstering the outlook for its current account balance.
But in a worrying sign, weak global demand as well as persistent domestic bottlenecks led to a sixth straight annual fall in merchandise exports. Exports account for about a fifth of India's USD 2 trillion economy.
The trade deficit shrank to USD 10.41 billion last month, its lowest since February, from USD 10.99 billion in April, data released by the trade ministry showed on Tuesday.
The data comes days after India's current account deficit, the broadest measure of its trade with the rest of the world, narrowed to a one-year-low of 0.2 percent of gross domestic product in the January-March quarter.
02:25pm Interview: Unity Infra has joined hands with Deepak Fertilizers to build an agriculture produce market committee (APMC) on a 90 acre land in Kalyan, Mumbai.
The financing will be divided as 75 percent debt, which is about Rs 320 crore, and 25 percent from equity, Unity Infra COO Nilesh Jamdar told CNBC-TV18. In January 2015 the company had received a corporate debt restructuring (CDR) approval to aid cash flow.
The company has got a lease of 35 years for the land from Maharashtra State Agriculture Marketing Board.
Jamdar said that the company will hold 60 percent stake in the special purpose utility (SPV) whereas Deepak Fertilizer will have 40 percent share. He is anticipating 9000 metric tonne of fruits and vegetables to be handled at APMC on daily basis. Sixty percent of the state-of-the-art terminal market will be utilised for payable facilities like cold storage, warehouse while the rest will be used for commercial activities, he said. The company is expecting a 22 percent internal rate of return from the project, he said adding they are also looking to expand the business in overseas market.
02:00pm Market Check
The market continued to reel under selling pressure, dented by private banking & financials, capital goods, oil, auto and metals stocks. The Sensex declined 162.10 points to 26424.45 and the Nifty fell 48.30 points to 7965.60.
The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices dropped 0.5 percent each. The market breadth remained weak as nearly two shares declined for every share advancing on the Bombay Stock Exchange.
HDFC and Vedanta extended losses, down 2.5 percent followed by Axis Bank, Dr Reddy's Labs, BHEL and Tata Steel with 1.4-1.8 percent loss. Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, L&T, ITC and Tata Motors slipped more than 0.5 percent. However, Tata Power bucked the trend, up 1.5 percent.
1:30 pm Market outlook: Technical analyst, Shubham Agarwal of Motilal Oswal Securities says, "If you look at the overall development on Nifty, on the larger scale we believe that Nifty is placed at a make or break point where we are expecting a fierce move up beyond 1,000 point to happen and this breakout should take place in a very less span of time. So, we see maximum 15-20 days of more consolidation."
The market is sliding away swiftly. The Sensex is down 121.40 points at 26465.15 and the Nifty is down 37.90 points at 7976.00. About 846 shares have advanced, 1498 shares declined, and 178 shares are unchanged.
Vedanta, HDFC, BHEL, Tata Steel and Dr Reddy's Labs are laggards while Coal India, Hindalco, Infosys, GAIL and M&M are top gainers in the Sensex.
The rupee is also at 2-week low, standing at 64.24 per dollar, down 0.12 percent from previous close.
Meanwhile, amidst the dry spell fears that loomed over India for long, the monsoon has surprised positively. The country has received 13 percent more-than-normal rainfall as of June 15.
Despite the delay caused by the advancement of Ashobaa cyclone, the intra-seasonal variability led to heavy showers on the southern plateau, especially in Kerala, D S Pai, Director (Long Range Forecast), IMD told CNBC-TV18. The country has so far received 8 percent rainfall of the total monsoon season with Northwest receiving 1 percent less than normal, central and Northeast India receiving 18 percent and 22 percent more-than-normal rainfall, respectively.
12:55pm Market Update: The market has not shown any sign of recovery yet. The Sensex dropped 120.29 points to 26466.26 and the Nifty declined 37.75 points to 7976.15. About 867 shares have advanced, 1477 shares declined, and 167 shares are unchanged on the Bombay Stock Exchange. If the recent fall in the market is anything to go by, there doesn't seem to be much exuberance left in the market, says Prabhat Awasthi, head of equities and MD - India at Nomura Financial Advisory. "I don't see any additional headwinds in the real economy," he told CNBC-TV18.
He sees earnings trajectory picking up only in the second half of FY16, partly on the back of lower commodity prices, but continues to maintain December 2015 Sensex target at 33500.
According to him, the Indian markets will see swift moves once corporate earnings revive.
12:40pm Monsoon check: Amidst the dry spell fears that loomed over India for long, the monsoon has surprised positively. The country has received 13 percent more-than-normal rainfall as of June 15.
Despite the delay caused by the advancement of Ashobaa cyclone, the intra-seasonal variability led to heavy showers on the southern plateau, especially in Kerala, D S Pai, Director (Long Range Forecast), IMD told CNBC-TV18.
The country has so far received 8 percent rainfall of the total monsoon season with Northwest receiving 1 percent less than normal, central and Northeast India receiving 18 percent and 22 percent more-than-normal rainfall, respectively.
Retaining the 88 percent long-period rainfall forecast, IMD expects July end to be a 'right' time for a revised assessment, he said. However, a strengthening El Nino may possibly impact the progress on monsoon in the coming months, he said.
12:20pm FII View: Indranil Sen Gupta, Bank of America Merrill Lynch advised investors to track the rains & the Fed to get a fix on the RBI's next rate cut.
"Our base case has the RBI cutting 50 bps in early 2016 after a long hold to look past a potential September Fed hike as well as a poor monsoon. While the Met forecasts the monsoon at 88percent of normal, June has seen 111 percent of normal. That said, the RBI could cut in August if the markets do not react too badly to the Fed & the rains continue to improve," he explained.
12:00pm Market Check
The market remained sluggish in noon trade with the Nifty continuing to struggle below the 8,000 mark, dragged lower by banking and real estate stocks. The Sensex dropped 98.23 points to 26488.32 and the Nifty fell 33 points to 7980.90. About 880 shares have advanced, 1342 shares declined, and 163 shares are unchanged on the BSE.
Axis Bank, Future Retail, Essar Oil, Bharti Infratel, BHEL, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors and Asian Paints were most active shares on exchanges.
Asian markets extended losses on Greece's debt talks and ahead of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting. China's Shanghai tumbled 3 percent on margin lending curbs. In commodities, Brent crude got back above USD 64 a barrel.
May trade deficit came in at a 3-month low of USD 10.41 billion. Exports for May stood at USD 22.34 billion against USD 22.05 billion in April and imports came in at USD 32.75 billion.
Nestle India fell 2.5 percent as food safety regulator, FSSAI ordered scanning and testing of 7 more nestle products. Additionally, sources told CNBC-TV18 that 70-80 mills in India impacted by Maggi recall and ban, suffering significant losses.
11:55 am Buzzing: Shares of Kotak Mahindra Bank fell by nearly 2 percent after an inter-ministerial panel deferred decision for the second time on the company's proposal for raising foreign investment limit in the bank to 55 percent. The stock slipped 1.83 per cent to Rs 1,266 at the BSE. Selling was also seen at the counter on the NSE, where the scrip went down by 1.76 per cent to Rs 1,267.
The Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) had taken up the application in its meeting recently, but the decision was deferred in want of comments from the Department of Financial Services (DFS), sources said yesterday. The Finance Ministry sources further said the DFS is likely to submit its comments by the end of this month. Earlier, the board had deferred decision on the proposal in its 217th meeting held on April 30.
11:30 am Market outlook: If the recent fall in the market is anything to go by, there doesn't seem to be much exuberance left in the market, says Prabhat Awasthi, head of equities and MD - India at Nomura Financial Advisory. "I don't see any additional headwinds in the real economy," he told CNBC-TV18. He sees earnings trajectory picking up only in the second half of FY16, partly on the back of lower commodity prices, but continues to maintain December 2015 Sensex target at 33500.
According to him, the Indian markets will see swift moves once corporate earnings revive. Awasthi believes private banks will rise higher as systemic growth picks up, though credit growth at the moment continues to be weak. He says low working capital growth and capex is slowing down credit growth.
The market continues to slide dragged by banks majorly even though May trade deficit has fallen on a montly basis. The Sensex is down 96.12 points at 26490.43 and the Nifty is down 31.05 points at 7982.85. About 870 shares have advanced, 1171 shares declined, and 154 shares are unchanged.
HDFC, Cipla, Dr Reddy's Labs, BHEL and ICICI Bank are major losers in the Sensex. Among the gainers are Tata Power, Coal India, GAIL, Wipro and M&M.
Crude oil futures rose Rs 38, or 1 percent, to Rs 3,856 per barrel today as speculators created positions amid a recovery in Asian trade amid Greece and supply worries. Marketmen said the rise in crude oil futures is largely in tune with recovery in Asian trade, thanks in part to a softer dollar despite worries over supply and the breakdown in Greece's debt talks.
10:55am Market Update: The market continued to see downward move. The Sensex dropped 78.33 points to 26508.22 and the Nifty slipped 22.80 points to 7991.10. About 861 shares have advanced, 1137 shares declined, and 140 shares are unchanged on the BSE. Axis Bank, Future Retail, Essar Oil, Novartis India, AstraZeneca, ICICI Bank, Asian Paints and Tata Motors were most active shares on exchanges.
10:40am May Trade Data: India's trade deficit declined to 3-month low at USD 10.41 billion in May against USD 10.99 billion in previous month. Exports inched up to USD 22.34 billion from USD 22.05 billion while imports dropped to USD 32.75 billion from USD 33.05 billion during the same period.
Crude oil imports increased to USD 8.54 billion in the month gone by against USD 7.44 billion in April while non-oil imports slipped to USD 24.2 billion from USD 25.6 billion on month-on-month basis.
India imported gold worth USD 2.42 billion in the month of May, down compared to USD 3.13 billion in previous month.
10:15am Market Triggers: Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley said next triggers for market performance include legislation, rains, growth data, rate cuts & global developments.
Earnings cycle is likely to turn in H2 2015 even as the earnings revisions breadth is at its worst level in history, he believes.
Over the coming two years, he sees earnings compounding at 21 percent for the Sensex and & 18 percent for the broad market. "Market valuations are middling, although if we are right about growth & rates, then they are attractive at 12x our FY17 estimate for BSE Sensex. Post a modest first half, we expect more than 20percent index returns in the next 12 months," said Desai.
10:00am Market Check
The market remained under pressure, dragged by private banking & financials, oil and metals stocks. However, power and select technology stocks gained. The broader markets were flat.
The Sensex declined 100.62 points to 26485.93 and the Nifty fell 31.75 points to 7982.15. About 698 shares have advanced, 996 shares declined, and 135 shares are unchanged on the BSE.
Nervousness in global markets due to Greece worries also dampened the investor mood. Global markets also looked cautious ahead of Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting tonight. Shanghai and Kospi fell more than 1 percent. Hang Seng, Nikkei, Straits Times and Taiwan Weighted declined 0.4-0.8 percent.
HDFC and ICICI Bank dropped 1.8 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, ONGC, ITC, BHEL and Cipla dropped 0.2-0.6 percent while Infosys, M&M, Wipro, Coal India and NTPC gained 0.2-0.8 percent.
9:55 am International markets: Though Greece debt talks are still at a stalemate, JP Morgan's James Glassman, says the country will move closer to a deal soon. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Glassman says the Greek issue will not be disruptive for the global markets as the European Central Bank (ECB) is backing its asset purchases.
Hence, a repeat of confidence crisis is unlikely, says Glassman. If Greece doesn't close in on a deal with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, the country will default on a repayment of euro 1.5 billion (USD 1.7 billion) debt repayment to the IMF due by the end of the month. On the other global event hogging limelight, Glassman expects the US Federal Reserve to hint at a strengthening US economy and says the rate hikes will be a slow and gradual process.
9:40 am Market check: The Sensex is down 102.68 points or 0.4 percent at 26483.87, and the Nifty slips 32.35 points or 0.4 percent at 7981.55. About 567 shares have advanced, 939 shares declined, and 118 shares are unchanged.
HDFC, ICICI Bank, Vedanta, BHEL and GAIl are losers in the Sensex. Among the gainers are Coal India, M&M, NTPC, Tata Power and HUL.
9:30 am Buzzing: Shares of Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) and IOC rise around 1 percent as petrol price was today hiked by 64 paise a litre. Diesel price was cut by Rs 1.35 per litre in line with trend in global oil rates. This is the third increase in petrol price since May.
However, in case of diesel, the reduction has halted two consecutive increases during last month. On June 1, companies skipped raising rates by 30-40 paise that had become necessary due to rise in international rates.
The three hikes in petrol rates have wiped away more than one-third of the gains that had accrued to consumers when global rates began to fall in August. In case of diesel, the reduction has partly restored the gains taken away in May.
The market has opened flat as the Sensex is down 44.44 points at 26542.1. The Nifty is down 19.10 points at 7994.80. About 295 shares have advanced, 237 shares declined, and 74 shares are unchanged.
Tata Motors, M&M, Coal India , ITC and Wipro are top gainers in the Sensex. Among the losers are ICICI Bank, HDFC, GAIL, Bharti Airtel and L&T.
The Indian rupee has opened higher at 64.07 a dollar, up 9 paise compared to previous day's closing value of 64.16 a dollar.
Ashutosh Raina, HDFC Bank said Greece continues to be focus of the markets, as the talks between Athens & its creditors failed over the weekend. The chances of Greece defaulting on its debt looks like a possibility, he added. The all important FOMC meeting starts tonight and the market will be keenly awaiting the outcome, he said.
According to him, the Rupee continues to trade in 63.80-64.30/USD range. Raina expects the rupee to trade weak with global uncertainty and underlying bullish Dollar sentiment.
Globally, the US markets ended lower as investors remained anxious over stalled Greece debt talks and ahead of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting that begins today.
European equities too closed lower after talks between Greece and its creditors collapsed at the weekend. The Asian shares nursed marginal losses early today, following the US market. Precious metal gold continued to trade around USD 1180 an ounce as Greek uncertainty supported prices.