Sensex below 22500, midcap & smallcap smash; Sesa trips 4%

30 Apr 2014

1

03:10 Mango galore
New Delhi has asked the European Union to lift a ban on Indian mangoes, as the country has already addressed the issue cited by the 28-nation bloc in a clampdown on shipments from next month.

The EU informed India in March that shipments of premium Alphonso mangoes would be blocked from May until December 2015 after authorities in Brussels found consignments infested with fruit flies.

"Since we got to know about the issue in March, we've put in place an elaborate examination and certification procedure that addresses the issue raised by the EU," said Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), a body affiliated with the trade ministry.

03:00 pm Boardroom
Shyam Shrinivasan, MD and CEO, Federal Bank in an interview to CNBC-TV18, said the results were encouraging thanks to some ''disciplined credit lending'' the bank had been doing for many quarters. ''The NPA challenge has been very squarely addressed by us.''

''There is an elaborate process that we have gone through,'' Shrinivasan said, on how the bank's asset quality has improved in an environment several other banks are struggling.

Federal Bank net interest income rose 30 percent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 625 crore while net profit jumped 25 percent to Rs 277 crore in March quarter.

02:50 pm Market outlook
Market has already priced in a 250-seat lead for the National Democratic Alliance, but if it falls below 230, then market will correct, says Anish Damania, Head-Institutional Equities, IDFC Securities.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Damania advises to maintain a neutral portfolio until election outcome on May 16 as one may not know where will the market head post elections.  He is marginally underweight on consumer goods, equalweight on both IT and pharma and marginally overweight on capital goods and financials for the next 15 days until the 16th Lok Sabha polls outcome.

Damania is bearish on public sector banks at this point in time as he does not see much improvement in their bad loans, non-performing loans and loan growth in general and finds them quite expensive. He, however, is bullish on private sector banks going ahead.

02:40pm Interview
Shopper's Stop aims to open another eight stores in the coming year. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, managing director Govind Shrikhande says, he expects the company's topline to grow 20 percent in FY15.

The retail chain reported 46.60 percent decline in standalone net profit to Rs 8.1 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2014, dragged by higher expenses. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 15.17 crore in the corresponding quarter of 2012-13. It also witnessed a drop at the gross margins level.

Shrikhande says that the company has been expanding at a face pace and its like-to-like store growth stood at 8 percent in Q4FY14.

Its overall expenses in the March quarter increased 19.81 percent to Rs 717.31 crore from Rs 598.86 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal. ''Our interest costs have gone up due to large investments made,'' he adds.

He expects FY16-17 to be a turnaround period for the company and is confident that its Hypercity business will turn PAT-positive by year-end.

02:30pm Dewan Housing falls 8%
Housing finance company Dewan Housing Finance Corporation's Q4FY14 net profit dropped 28.3 percent to Rs 141.2 crore from Rs 197 crore year-on-year on lower net interest income.

Net interest income fell 11.5 percent to Rs 339 crore from Rs 383 crore during the same period. Provisions stood at Rs 65.5 crore in Q4FY14 as against Rs 67.3 crore in a year-ago period and Rs 58.5 crore in Q3FY14.

02:20pm FII View
Neelkanth Mishra, Credit Suisse says extreme market behaviour is widely expected on May 13 post exit poll results and May 16. ''Probability of outcomes that would justify such volatility, that is, sub-190 or 230-plus seats for the NDA, is low. Even within the likely range, the verdict is unlikely to be as simple as signifying one person as PM,'' he adds.

According to him, the strength of the government in terms of pushing reforms changes with every ten seats.

02:10pm Midcaps and Smallcaps
In the midcap space, Indian Overseas Bank, ALSTOM India, Central Bank, Shriram City and Balkrishna Industries rallied 4-11 percent while IFCI, Dewan Housing, Jain Irrigation, Bombay Dyeing and Jet Airways fell 7-9 percent.

Among smallcaps, AVT Natural, Fulford, Swaraj Engines, Asian Hotels and Aegis Logistics surged 5-10 percent whereas Kesoram Industries, Jai Corp, Nectar Life, NCC and JB Chemicals lost 8-16 percent.

02:00pm Equity benchmarks pared all its gains in afternoon trade weighed down by private banks, capital goods and metals stocks. Broader markets too caught in bear grip with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices falling 1.6 percent and 2 percent, respectively.

The Sensex lost 104.88 points to 22361.31 and the Nifty fell 35.25 points to 6680. More than two shares declined for every share advancing on the BSE.

Sesa Sterlite topped the selling list, losing 4 percent followed by Tata Power with 3.6 percent. Shares of L&T, BHEL, Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto and Hindalco Industries dropped 2-3 percent.

Top private sector lender ICICI Bank lost 1.7 percent whereas shares of ITC, HDFC, Reliance Industries and State Bank of India gained 0.3-0.7 percent.

1:50 pm Market check: The Sensex is down 106.53 points at 22359.66, and the Nifty is down 35.70 points  at 6679.55. About 904 shares have advanced, 1659 shares declined, and 137 shares are unchanged.  Tata Power and Sesa Sterlite fall 4 percent each.

1:40 pm Red flag: The next time a company going public mentions the term 'conflict of interest' in the risk factors section of its prospectus, investors should take it seriously. Else, they should not complain later on about being short changed by the promoter. An audit of commodity bourse MCX by consultancy firm Pricewaterhouse Coopers has raised red flags on dubious related party transactions and outright bogus trades on the Exchange.

Investors in MCX cannot claim they were not warned. The company had made it clear in its IPO prospectus that shareholders should not expect any preferential treatment if there was a conflict of interest between the promoters' and shareholders interests.

1:30 pm Results: Public sector lender Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC) surpassed street expectations by reporting net profit at Rs 310.3 crore in the quarter ended March 2014, up 0.8 percent compared to same quarter last year supported by higher other income and net interest income. Asset quality was stable but provisions increased during the quarter.

According to CNBC-TV18 poll estimates, analysts had estimated net profit of Rs 240 crore and net interest income of Rs 1,289 crore for the quarter.

Net interest income, the difference between interest earned and interest expended, jumped 7.8 percent year-on-year to Rs 1,308.7 crore in the quarter gone by while other income (non-interest income) shot up 63.4 percent on yearly basis to Rs 754.5 crore during the quarter.

1:20 pm FII view: Jim Walker, MD of Asianomics, thinks the business cycle in India is improving. He maintains a long position on Indian stocks ''regardless of the election outcome''. Fairly defensive by nature as he claims, Walker said he would rather go aggressive utilizing the current stock market cycle. He is looking to buy beaten down industrials, especially in midcaps, cyclicals, infra & manufacturing stocks.

He expects Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen to continue tapering till bond buying reaches zero. He thinks the disappearance of entire quantitative easing program will be very positive for emerging markets.

The market is losing all its morning gains as metals, infrastructure and realty stocks dragged the indices. The Sensex is up 66.86 points at 22533.05, and the Nifty is up 19.60 points at 6734.85. About 1189 shares have advanced, 1267 shares declined, and 142 shares are unchanged.

Sesa Sterlite, Hindalco, Tata Power, Tata Steel and Bajaj Auto are top losers in the Sensex. Among the gainers are GAIL, Dr Reddy's Labs, HDFC, M&M and SBI.

Kotak Mahindra Bank's standalone net interest income is seen subdued. According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, profit may fall by 11 percent due to higher provisions. Margins may remain stable and no negative surprise is expected on restructured slippages.

Asian markets trade higher as investors focus on central bank policy decisions in Japan and the US. Bank of Japan keeps key policy rates unchanged.

12:55pm FII View
Manishi Raychaudhuri of BNP Paribas Securities India foresees key Indian equity benchmarks - the Sensex and Nifty touching 24,000 and 7,300-7,400 respectively, by end of this year.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, he says, both macro economic scenario and earnings environment is on a better footing across Asia, also inflows of foreign funds into emerging markets (EMs) has increased in last few weeks. Hence, investor sentiment relating to Asia and EMs has improved.

As far as the Indian market is concerned, Raychaudhuri says that outcome of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections on May 16, will be the key determinant of stock market movement.

12:45pm JSW Energy to disappoint
According to CNBC-TV18 poll estimates, analysts expect JSW Energy's Q4FY14 profit after tax to fall 27.5 percent year-on-year to Rs 243 crore due to higher interest cost but that to increase sequentially on account of lower tax rate.

Total income is likely to drop 4 percent on yearly basis to Rs 2,209 crore due to back down by State Electricity Boards that may drag average plant load factors (PLF) in Q4FY14 to 58 percent as against 86 percent in Q4FY13.

Operating profit may decline 1.5 percent Y-o-Y to Rs 784 crore but operating profit margin may expand 100 basis points to 35.5 percent during the quarter due to tariff increase and decline in fuel costs (Indonesian coal prices).

12:35pm Interview
Federal Bank reported a fairly robust set of quarterly earning numbers Wednesday with net interest income rising 30 percent quarter on quarter to Rs 625 crore while net profit jumped 25 percent to Rs 277 crore.

MD and CEO Shyam Shrinivasan, in an interview with CNBC-TV18, said the results were encouraging thanks to some ''disciplined credit lending'' the bank had been doing for many quarters. ''The NPA challenge has been very squarely addressed by us.''

''There is an elaborate process that we have gone through,'' Shrinivasan said, on how the bank's asset quality has improved in an environment several other banks are struggling.

12:20pm Nikkei trim gains
Japanese shares pared much of their early gains in choppy trade today after the Bank of Japan affirmed its existing policies, disappointing some speculators who had bet on the outside chance of a surprise easing.

The Nikkei ended up 0.1 percent at 14,304.11, after rising 0.9 percent earlier on the back of positive earnings guidance. It fell 3.5 percent this month, the fourth consecutive month of declines, reports Reuters.

12:10pm Market Expert
Market has already priced in a 250-seat lead for the National Democratic Alliance, but if it falls below 230, then market will correct, says Anish Damania, Head-Institutional Equities, IDFC Securities.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Damania advises to maintain a neutral portfolio until election outcome on May 16 as one may not know where will the market head post elections.  He is marginally underweight on consumer goods, equalweight on both IT and pharma and marginally overweight on capital goods and financials for the next 15 days until the 16th Lok Sabha polls outcome.

12:00pm The market trimmed gains in noon trade due to weakness in capital goods and technology stocks. The Sensex rose 122.31 points to 22588.50 and the Nifty climbed 37.15 points to 6752.40. Advancing shares outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 1295 to 1086 on the BSE.

Alstom India and Alstom T&D rallied 16 percent and 11 percent, respectively after the French group Alstom said it was considering General Electric's (GE) USD 13.5 billion bid for its energy unit.

The proposed deal would be for the thermal, renewable and grid sectors of Alstom's energy business. It stated that it would now review the bid before the end of May and, if completed, would use the cash to strengthen its transport arm.

Alstom Finance BV held 68.56 percent equity shareholding in Alstom India while Alstom group subsisidary Grid Equipments and Alstom Holdings held 75 percent stake in Alstom T&D India as of March 2014.

11:50 pm Buzzing: Shares of TVS Motor surged 6 percent intraday as it posted a net profit of Rs 52.1 crore in the quarter ended March 31, 2014 against a loss Rs 32.7 crore in the year-ago period. Launches and upgrades which the company had introduced across the scooter and motorcycle drove its revenue up 21 percent year-on-year to Rs 2,156 crore.

In a post-earnings conference call, the management has guided for 8-10 percent industry growth in FY15. The auto maker is also expecting new launches to aid market share gains.

During the year gone by, the company strengthened its presence in the scooter segment introducing TVS Jupiter, styled to enthuse the male customer. TVS Jupiter went on to become the most awarded scooters in India.

11:30 am Houseviews: CLSA reiterates its buy rating on Bahrti Airtel with a target price of Rs 390 per share. The brokerage has upgraded its FY15/17CL EBITDA by 1 percent to a robust 12 percent CAGR over FY14-17CL and profit by higher 8-11 percent. Though 4G launch by Reliance Jio is a risk, CLSA feels Bharti is placed incumbent with the highest spectrum and backbone of hefty cashflows and hence sees it as a long-term winner.

Religare sounds cautious as Bharti's weak Africa performance remained a drag on overall growth and capped EBITDA upgrades.

11:20 am Poll: FMCG major Marico will announce its fourth quarter (January-March) earnings today. According to CNBC-TV18 poll estimates, analysts expect profit after tax of the company to fall 5.4 percent year-on-year to Rs 79 crore while total income from operations may increase 5.6 percent to Rs 1,054 crore for the quarter.

Operating profit is expected to increase 11.7 percent to Rs 134 crore and margin may expand 70 basis points to 12.7 percent in the quarter gone by.

Copra prices (raw material for its coconut oil) have witnessed around 62 percent Y-o-Y increase during the quarter and advertising spends are likely to remain at elevated level to support new launches like hair colour.

The market is surging ahead boosted by rally in banking, oil & gas and auto stocks. The Sensex is up 209.21 points at 22675.40 and the Nifty is up 61.75 points at 6777.00.  About 1309 shares have advanced, 731 shares declined, and 103 shares are unchanged.

GAIL, Reliance, Dr Reddy's Labs, Tata Motors and ONGC are top gainers in the Sensex. Among the losers are Bajaj Auto, Sun Pharma, Hindalco, Tata Steel and Sesa Sterlite.

In the seventh phase of the Lok Sabha elections on April 30, voting began across 89 seats in seven states and two Union Territories on Wednesday. All 26 seats in Gujarat, 13 in Punjab and 17 in the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh are voting along with 46 other constituencies. A total of 1,295 candidates are in the fray and their fates will be decided by 13,96,04,510 eligible voters.

The rupee is higher against the greenback on positive market sentiment and tracking positive local share indices. However, some caution expected before the US FOMC policy meet outcome due later today. Gilts are trading slightly up on expectation of strong demand at Friday's auction. Players also build positions in anticipation of stable government post election results.

The euro trades marginally lower against the dollar continuing its trend from Tuesday. The yen is marginally higher against the dollar recovering from lows

In commodities, gold is still trading sub USD 1300/oz mark with Brent is stable at levels of USD 108/bbl.

Asian markets trade are mixed in anticipation of the outcome of the FOMC meet today. Also, the Bank of Japan has voted unanimously to leave monetary policy unchanged.

10:59am Marico to announce Q4 earnings
According to CNBC-TV18 poll estimates, analysts expect Marico's profit after tax to fall 5.4 percent year-on-year to Rs 79 crore while total income from operations may increase 5.6 percent to Rs 1,054 crore for the quarter.

Operating profit is expected to increase 11.7 percent to Rs 134 crore and margin may expand 70 basis points to 12.7 percent in the quarter gone by.

Coconut oil hit by slow pace of conversion to branded and Edible oil hit by hyper-competition. Hence, analysts expect muted volumes of about 5-6 percent (on a base of 5 percent) while price hikes may drive standalone revenues. High input costs (copra) may hit gross margins, but expenses may be kept under control.

10:50am Alstom in focus
Alstom India surged over 8 percent and Alstom T&D gained 4 percent after media report suggests that GE proposed to buy Alstom SA's energy business for USD 12.35 billion.

10:40am Market Expert
Dipan Mehta, Member, BSE & NSE advises investors to be slightly into cash and light on the market at this point of time. He explains that though everybody is expecting an NDA government, but one should brace for any disappointments that may come through on polls.

He has a cautious call on the market, but says considering that this is the earnings season and if any interesting (exceptionally good) result comes out from a midcap or largecap company, then that should be looked into and studied well before buying.

10:30am Asian markets
Asian shares turned lower, while a stronger yen weighed on Tokyo stocks after the Bank of Japan held policy steady as expected.

Investors stayed cautious before the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later in the session as well as key US jobs data on Friday, and against a backdrop of continuing tension in Ukraine.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.3 percent, erasing early gains but still on track for a monthly rise of over 1 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slumped 1.2 percent as investors locked in gains from a late-afternoon surge on Tuesday that sent it up more than 1 percent in the final hour before the close.

Japan's Nikkei stock average also erased early gains and shed 0.1 percent, after the BOJ board decided unanimously to keep monetary policy steady as expected, reports Reuters.

10:20am Interview
A Subba Rao, chief financial officer, Ceat says FY14 has been the best year for the company, so much so that the tyre major has announced 100 percent dividend .

Speaking to CNBC-TV18 after posting inline Q4 results , Subba Rao says the company's numbers were aided by lower rubber prices and a very strong product mix too.

For the current year, FY15, Ceat is aiming at double-digit margins and says it will continue to focus on original equipment manufacturer (OEMs) deals. In the last year, the company added new OEM clients like Royal Enfield and Eicher Motors.

10:10am Voting begins for 7th phase
In the seventh phase of Lok Sabha elections today voting is taking place across 89 seats in seven states and two Union Territories. All 26 seats in Gujarat, 13 in Punjab and 17 in Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh are voting along with 46 other constituencies. A total of 1,295 candidates are in the fray and their fates will be decided by 13,96,04,510 eligible voters.

The seventh phase of Lok Sabha voting will determine the fate of top candidates like Narendra Modi, Sonia Gandhi, LK Advani and Rajnath Singh. Also in the fray are other key figures like Dr Murli Manohar Joshi, Uma Bharti, Arun Jaitley, Captain Amarinder Singh, K Chandrashekhara Rao, S Jaipala Reddy, Ambica Soni, Dr Farooq Abdullah, Jitin Prasada, Shankar Sinh Vaghela and Sharad Yadav.

10:00am Equity benchmarks bounced back after three-day of losses, supported by banking & financials, oil & gas and auto stocks. The Sensex rose 182.74 points to 22648.93 and the Nifty climbed 51.25 points to 6766.50. About 1217 shares have advanced, 521 shares declined, and 66 shares are unchanged.

Index heavyweights Reliance Industries, HDFC and ITC advanced 1-2 percent followed by Tata Motors and ONGC with 1.6 percent each. Top lenders State Bank of India, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank gained 0.6-1.3 percent.

Shares of Dr Reddy's Labs and GAIL topped the buying list, rising 2 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.

However, Sun Pharma and Ranbaxy Labs fell 1-2 percent after Andhra Pradesh High Court asked exchanges to maintain interim status quo on the Ranbaxy-Sun Pharma deal. Sun Pharma acquired Ranbaxy for USD 4 billion on April 6.

9:50 am Polling day: In the seventh phase of the Lok Sabha elections on April 30, voting began across 89 seats in seven states and two Union Territories on Wednesday. All 26 seats in Gujarat, 13 in Punjab and 17 in the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh are voting along with 46 other constituencies. A total of 1,295 candidates are in the fray and their fates will be decided by 13,96,04,510 eligible voters.

The seventh phase of Lok Sabha voting will determine the fate of top candidates like Narendra Modi, Sonia Gandhi, LK Advani and Rajnath Singh. Also in the fray are other key figures like Dr Murli Manohar Joshi, Uma Bharti, Arun Jaitley, Captain Amarinder Singh, K Chandrashekhara Rao, S Jaipala Reddy, Ambica Soni, Dr Farooq Abdullah, Jitin Prasada, Shankar Sinh Vaghela and Sharad Yadav.

All eyes are on BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat. Modi himself is contesting from Vadodara (besides Varanasi in UP which goes to polls on May 12). According to ground reports Modi's victory from Vadodara is a foregone conclusion. The only thing to be decided on voting day is his victory margin over the Congress candidate Madhusudhan Mistry.

9:40 am FII view:  Neelkanth Mishra, Credit Suisse says extreme market behaviour is widely expected on May 13 post exit poll results and May 16. ''Probability of outcomes that would justify such volatility, that is, sub-190 or 230-plus seats for the NDA, is low. Even within the likely range, the verdict is unlikely to be as simple as signifying one person as PM,'' he adds.

According to him, the strength of the government in terms of pushing reforms changes with every ten seats.

Meanwhile, Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley feels equity valuations are tolerable versus history, appear rich compared to emerging markets and seem overcooked against bonds.

''If India generates a policy response that lifts cash flows, the current valuations may not look as rich in hindsight. But if such policy action is elusive, valuations may actually be richer than they appear today. For now valuations are not compelling from a 12-month perspective,'' he adds.

9:24 am Market check: The Sensex is up 184.91 points at 22651.10, and the Nifty is up 52.90 points at 6768.15. About 720 shares advanced, 257 shares declined and 36 shares were unchanged. Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, ONGC, Reliance and SBI.

Among the laggards are Sun Pharma, Coal India and Tata Steel

The market has opened in green terrain. The Sensex is up 33.74 points at 22499.93, and the Nifty is up 9.70 points at 6724.95. Ranbaxy is down 3 percent as its deal with Sun Pharma is facing hurdles. Bharti Airtel is up 2 percent on the back of March quarter earnings announced last night after market hours.

About 339 shares have advanced, 92 shares declined, and 17 shares are unchanged.

The Indian rupee opened higher by 10 paise at 60.61 per dollar as against previous day's closing value of 60.71 a dollar.

NS Venkatesh of IDBI Bank said that, "The Fed is expected to continue with the cut in asset purchase programme by USD 10 billion. The tone is expected to remain dovish and, as a result, dollar is expected to weaken marginally in today's trade."

"The rupee is expected to trade in a range of 60.20-60.40/dollar," he added.
Meanwhile, the euro nursed broad losses early on Wednesday, having been put under pressure by soft German inflation numbers renewed pressure on the euro helped the dollar index snap a five-session losing run.

While the yen stayed on the defensive ahead of a policy decision by the Bank Of Japan.
A day after the Indian equity markets saw significant fall on profit booking, the Nifty is likely to open smartly in the green today. The SGX Nifty, an indicator of the market opening, was trading at 6778, up 13 points.

Global markets, meanwhile, are mixed. The US markets ended higher with the Dow approaching a record high and European shares rallied supported by a surge in tech stocks. Asia is cautious in trade ahead of the FOMC and Bank of Japan's monetary decision.
Brent Crude lost about 0.5 percent this morning and Nymex fell towards USD 100 early morning as expectations of record high stockpiles weighed on futures.

Gold is little changed today as investors awaited cues from the US Federal Reserve's policy statement and key economic data, even as political tensions in Ukraine provided some safe-haven support.

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